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:




:

































 

 

 

 





H 1, H 2,..., Hn , :

1) : HiHj =; i, j =1,2,..., n; i ¹ j;

2) W:

W =H 1(H 2(...(Hn.

 

, H 1, H 2,..., Hn . .

: Ì W :

P (A)= P (A / H 1) P (H 1)+ P (A / H 2) P (H 2)+...+ P (A / Hn) P (Hn)=

.

.

, A= (AH 1)((AH 2)(...((AHn), AHi (i =1,2,..., n) .

P (A)= P (AH 1)+ P (AH 2)+...+ P (AHn).

, P (AHi)= P (A / Hi) P (Hi) (i =1,2,..., n), .

13. , , ? 30% , 50% , 20% . 5%, 3% 2%.

. H 1 , , H 2 , H 3 . ,

A , , A / Hi , , i - .

14. , 0,75 0,30 . 0,80.

. : H 1 , H 2 . . , H 1 H 2 (P (H 1)+ P (H 2)=1,00), P (H 1) = 0,80 P (H 2) = 0,20. 0,75 0,30 H 1 H 2 , .. P (A / H 1)=0,75 P (A / H 2)=0,30.





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