.


:




:

































 

 

 

 


.




, , , . , .

yt, t = 1,..., n. m ( < n) . , y 2 ,..., y+i, y 3,..., ym +2 . . , , . . , , , . , , , :

 

, (3.3)

 

t, yi i; i ; m ( ).

. = 2 + 1 ,

 

. (3.4)

, , . , . , : , . , , . . , .

3- 5- ( ).

Statistics/Advanced Linear/Nonlinear Models/Time Series/Forecasting. , , .

, (2001-2010), (transformations, autocorrelations, crosscorrelations, plots) Smoothing (. 3.1.).

N - N-pts Moving Average. 3- N 3 (N = 3). (Transform selected series), , , . ( ). , 3- (3pt.mov.aver). , (N=5) (. 3.2), (Transform selected series), .

 

. 3.1. Smoothing Transformation of Variables

 

 

 

. 3.2. Smoothing Transformation of Variables 3-

 

3 (. 3.3). Save variables, , (. . 2.26), (. 3.4).

 

. 3.3. 3- 5-

 

. 3.4.

 

. , Graphs of Block Data/Line Plot: Entire Columns (. 3.5). , 3- 5- (. 3.6).

 

 

. 3.5.

 

 

 

. 3.5. , 3- 5-

 

, 2005 2006 , 2008 2009 .

. , , . , , . . , .

, , , , . , [2].

 





:


: 2015-05-06; !; : 991 |


:

:

- , 20 40 . - .
==> ...

960 - | 912 -


© 2015-2024 lektsii.org - -

: 0.015 .