, , , . , .
yt, t = 1,..., n. m ( < n) . , y 2 ,..., y+i, y 3,..., ym +2 . . , , . . , , , . , , , :
, (3.3)
t, yi i; i ; m ( ).
. = 2 + 1 ,
. (3.4)
, , . , . , : , . , , . . , .
3- 5- ( ).
Statistics/Advanced Linear/Nonlinear Models/Time Series/Forecasting. , , .
, (2001-2010), (transformations, autocorrelations, crosscorrelations, plots) Smoothing (. 3.1.).
N - N-pts Moving Average. 3- N 3 (N = 3). (Transform selected series), , , . ( ). , 3- (3pt.mov.aver). , (N=5) (. 3.2), (Transform selected series), .
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. 3.1. Smoothing Transformation of Variables
. 3.2. Smoothing Transformation of Variables 3-
3 (. 3.3). Save variables, , (. . 2.26), (. 3.4).
. 3.3. 3- 5-
. 3.4.
. , Graphs of Block Data/Line Plot: Entire Columns (. 3.5). , 3- 5- (. 3.6).
. 3.5.
. 3.5. , 3- 5-
, 2005 2006 , 2008 2009 .
. , , . , , . . , .
, , , , . , [2].