1 - | 2 - | 3 - | 4 - | 1 - | 2 - | 3 - | 4 - | ||
4459.7 | 5080.4 | 5873.0 | 6212.3 | 5811.9 | 6389.5 | 7299.2 | 7402.9 | ||
: | |||||||||
3170.8 | 3460.5 | 3686.6 | 4001.0 | 3944.3 | 4261.4 | 4524.8 | 4899.2 | ||
2282.6 | 2535.4 | 2742.4 | 3029.6 | 2798.0 | 3078.4 | 3327.0 | 3684.5 | ||
854.8 | 890.6 | 909.3 | 936.0 | 1109.0 | 1145.0 | 1159.4 | 1175.8 | ||
, | 33.4 | 34.5 | 34.9 | 35.4 | 37.3 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 38.9 | |
677.7 | 876.4 | 1470.5 | 1314.1 | 849.3 | 1208.0 | 1863.7 | 1827.8 | ||
1) | 584.0 | 832.6 | 1049.6 | 1370.7 | 706.0 | 1076.9 | 1350.3 | 1847.4 | |
93.7 | 43.8 | 420.9 | -56.6 | 143.3 | 131.1 | 513.4 | -19.6 | ||
617.1 | 763.1 | 788.8 | 790.0 | 961.5 | 944.4 | 877.9 | 638.7 | ||
1531.3 | 1844.8 | 2049.7 | 2181.5 | 2062.9 | 2288.7 | 2373.8 | 2353.9 | ||
914.2 | 1081.7 | 1260.9 | 1391.5 | 1101.4 | 1344.3 | 1495.9 | 1715.2 | ||
-5.9 | -19.6 | -72.9 | 107.2 | 56.8 | -24.3 | 32.8 | 37.2 | ||
1 - | 2 - | 3 - | 4 - | 1 - | 2 - | 3 - | 4 - | |
6749.7 | 7764.9 | 8904.5 | 9692.3 | 8891.0 | 10193.3 | 11639.5 | 10944.2 | |
: | ||||||||
4785.2 | 5215.9 | 5603.1 | 6181.6 | 5955.4 | 6613.6 | 7119.8 | 7548.6 | |
3377.4 | 3762.4 | 4124.3 | 4636.8 | 4258.1 | 4830.8 | 5299.3 | 5666.0 | |
1363.8 | 1408.6 | 1432.9 | 1497.3 | 1647.8 | 1731.4 | 1767.9 | 1828.6 | |
, | 44.0 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 47.5 | 49.5 | 51.4 | 52.6 | 54.0 |
1219.1 | 1763.2 | 2498.6 | 2550.8 | 1769.0 | 2626.9 | 3347.3 | 2899.3 | |
1) | 979.6 | 1529.2 | 1848.9 | 2624.8 | 1433.9 | 2146.8 | 2508.5 | 3047.2 |
239.5 | 234.0 | 649.7 | -74.0 | 335.1 | 480.1 | 838.8 | -147.9 | |
678.3 | 685.5 | 637.8 | 845.5 | 1101.3 | 1063.3 | 1100.1 | 526.5 | |
2087.2 | 2406.5 | 2559.4 | 2979.3 | 2921.7 | 3308.7 | 3675.3 | 3021.0 | |
1408.9 | 1721.0 | 1921.6 | 2133.8 | 1820.4 | 2245.4 | 2575.2 | 2494.5 | |
67.1 | 100.3 | 165.0 | 114.4 | 65.3 | -110.5 | 72.3 | -30.2 |
1) |
.
1. ;
2. ;
3. ;
4. ;
|
|
5. ;
6. ;
7. ;
8. ;
9. t = t .
4.1
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 1 1999 ; = 0,01.
4.2
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 1 2005 ; = 0,02.
4.3
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 1 2009 ; = 0,03.
4.4
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 2 1999 ; = 0,04.
4.5
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 2 2005 ; = 0,05.
4.6
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 2 2009 ; = 0,06.
4.7
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 3 1999 ; = 0,07.
4.8
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 3 2005 ; = 0,08.
4.9
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 3 2009 ; = 0,09.
4.10
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 4 1999 ; = 0,1.
4.11
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 4 2005 ; = 0,09.
4.12
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 4 2009 ; = 0,08.
4.13
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 1 1999 ; = 0,07.
4.14
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 1 2005 ; = 0,06.
4.15
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 1 2009 ; = 0,05.
4.16
yt - 1995 1998 .;
t 2 1999 ; = 0,04.
4.17
yt - 2000 2004 .;
t 2 2005 ; = 0,03.
4.18
yt - 2005 2008 .;
t 2 2009 ; = 0,02.
5. ( . ) .
|
|
.
1. ;
2. ;
3. ;
4. ;
5. ;
6. ;
7. t = t .
5.1
yt - 1992 1996 .;
t 1997 ; = 0,01.
5.2
yt - 1992 1995 .;
t 1996 ; = 0,02.
5.3
yt - 1993 1996 .;
t 1997 ; = 0,03.
5.4
yt - 1992 1994 .;
t 1996 ; = 0,04.
5.4
yt - 1993 1995 .;
t 1996 ; = 0,05.
1. ?
2. .
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
6. ?
7. ?
8. ?
9. ?
10. .
11. .
12. .
13. ?
14. .
1. .., .. . .: , 1998.
2. .. . .: , 2001.
3. .. . .: - 0, 2009.
4. . . .: , 1999.
5. .., .., .. . / . .. . .: , 2007.
6. .., .. . .: , 2002.
7. .., .., .. : . .: , 2004.
8. / . .. . .: , 2008.
9. .. . .: , 2006.
10. .., .. . .: , 2003.
11. .., .. . .: , 2007.
1
l,
F(; _1; _2).
F .
- , F -.
|
|
_1 - .
_2 - .
(; _).
t - .
, .
_ , .
(1, 2,...).
. , .
1,2,... - 1 30 , .
(; _; ).
. - . , , .
- . 100*(1 - ) , , , 0,05 95- .
_ - , .
- .
(1; 2;...).
.
1, 2,... - 1 30 , . , .
(1; 2).
, . .
1 - .
2 - .
(1; 2)
1 2. .
1 - .
2 - .
(__ y; __ x; ; ).
:
y = b * m ^ x y = (b *(m 1^ x 1)*(m 2^ x 2)*) ( x),
y x. m , x, b . , y, x m . { mn; mn -1;...; m 1; b }.
__y y, y = b * m ^ x.
__x x, y = b * m ^ x.
- __ x , , {1;2;3;...} , __ y.
, , , b 1.
- , b .
- , b 1 m , y = m ^ x.
, , .
|
|
- , , { mn; mn -1;...; m 1; b: sen; sen -1;...; se 1; seb: r 2; sey; F; df: ssreg; ssresid }.
- , m b.
- , . , , , , , . , . .
- x, (m) y (b) , :
(m):
( (__ y; ); 1);
y (b):
( (__ y; ); 2).
y = b * m ^ x y, Microsoft Excel . , . .
(__ y; __ x; ; ).
, . , .
:
y = mx + b y = m 1 x 1 + m 2 x 2 +... + b ( x), y x. m , x, b . , y, x m . { mn; mn -1;...; m 1; b }. .
__ y y, y = mx + b.
__ x x, y = mx + b.
- __x , , {1;2;3;...} , __y.
, , , b 0.
- , b .
- , b 0 m , y = mx.
, , .
- , , :{ mn; mn -1;...; m 1; b: sen; sen -1;...; se 1; seb: r 2; sey: F; df: ssreg; ssresid }.
- , m b.
:
se 1, se 2,..., sen | m 1, m 2,..., mn. |
seb | b (seb = #/, ). |
r 2 | . y , ; , 0 1. 1, , .. y. , 0, y. , r 2, . "" . |
sey | y. |
F | F-, F - . F - , . |
df | . F - . F -, . |
ssreg | . |
ssresid | . |
().
. .
|
|
- , .
(x; __ y; __ x).
. - y -, x -. - x - y -, .
- , .
__ y - .