. , : , . ( , ), , . , . , .
(Economic Cycle), - (Business Cycle), () . , :
- (Recession) , , , - ;
- (Recovery) , , , , ;
- (Expansion) - , , , ; expansion , (growth cycles).
. , .
, ( - ), ( - ) ( ).
, . , , . , .
. 7.1.
, (NBER - National Bureau.of Economic Research), , . , , , . , .
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NBER, () . , . , . (, , ..), , , - . , .
(leading) | (lagging) | (coinciding) |
- , , . , , , ,
- , , - , , , ;
- , ;
- , .
, . , - , , . ..
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, , , - . - 60- 70- , , , , , . ( ), , .
, , . . , . : , ( ), . , , , , , . , . .
60- ( ), . , , , . , , , .
FED . ( ) , , . . .
FED 15- 1981 - 82 .., . , . FED , , . 80- , , 1990 - 91 .. , , , FED .
FED, - . , ; , - . , :