H0: R2=0,
H0: b1 = b2 =... = bn = 0.
: (bj ≠ 0)
R2 F-:
F- Գ:
F = | 3,9715 | ||
=F(0,05;5;7) | |||
Գ f1 = nm1, f2 = n1 a= 0,05:
F > F
.
³ - .
, , t- k=nm1 a=0,05.
t =2,57058 | ||
=(0,05;5) | ||
t- :
|t| > t
9,049 > 2,57058
, (), .
t- :
jj (' )-1;
.
t-. :
0 : bj = 0,
: bj ≠ 0.
. a=0,05, t- (t =2,5058) t- .
0: b0 =0 | |
t = | 9,4678 |
0: b1 =0 | |
t = | 4,1439 |
0: b2 =0 | |
t = | 2,4435 |
| t | < t , 0. |
| t | > t , 0. |
| t | > t Y:
b0: |9,4678| > 2,57058 → 0 (b0=0) ; X0 ( ) ; |
b1: |4,1439| > 2,57058 → 0 (b1=0) ; 1 ( ) ; |
b2: |2,4435| < 2,57058 → 0, (β2=0) ; 2, ( ) . |
:
= 23,89 2,57 * 2,523 < b0 < 23,89 + 2,57 * 2,523 |
= 0,97 2,57 * 0,235 < b1 < 0,97 + 2,57 * 0,235 |
= 0,38 2,57 * 0,155 < b2 < 0,38 + 2,57 * 0,155 |
P (17,4 < b0 < 30,37) = 0,95
P (0,37 < b1 < 1,579) = 0,95
|
|
P (0,02 < b2 < 0,779) = 0,95
3. Y:
Y = 23,89 +0,97X1 +0,38X2 = (1, 15, 35), ( ):
Y = 23,89 + 0,97 × 15 + 0,38 × 35 = 51,79
M(Y) (1) (2).
, :
(' × )1 = | 3,78969 | 0,12007 | 0,20478 |
0,12007 | 0,03291 | 0,01593 | |
0,20478 | 0,01593 | 0,01438 |
- , :
6,36573 | 0,20169 | 0,343982 | |
var () = | 0,20169 | 0,05529 | 0,02676 |
0,343982 | 0,02676 | 0,02415 |
= | |
' = |
' * var () = | 2,6483 | 0,0944 | 0,0999 |
:
M(Y np):
M(Y np) :
t t- k=nm1 a=0,05.
51,79 2,57058 × 1,5046 ≤ M(Y) ≤ 51,79 + 2,57058 × 1,5046
47,9264 | ≤ M(Y) ≤ | 55,6617 |
Y.
Y:
51,79 2,57058 × 1,9858 ≤ Y ≤ 51,79 + 2,57058 × 1,9858;
46,6893 | ≤ Y ≤ | 56,8988 |
4. , Y x1 Y x2 (. 6.1).
, x1 x2 .
˳ Y= f (X1) X2=const 1 2 ( 2).
˳ Y= f (X2) X1=const 2 1 ( 1).
X1 | X2 | Y= f (X1) X2=const | Y= f (X2) X1=const | |||
min | 4,2 | 30,64 | 35,64 | X1 | X2 | |
max | 14,2 | 40,38 | 41,34 | 7,0 |
. 6.1.
.
, 94,2% , 5,8% . ( ) ( 0,971).
F > F0,05 (17,38>3,97) a=0,95. 5%- .
:
|
|
, .
, :
,
, ( , Y, ).
, Y 0,77 . .
³ .
F- Գ. F < F (2,5705<40,95). .
t- . t < |t| (2,57 < 9,049). () .
t- : X0 1 , 2, ( ) .
:
P (17,4 < b0 < 30,37) = 0,95
P (0,37 < b1 < 1,579) = 0,95
P (0,02 < b2 < 0,779) = 0,95
Y = (1, 15, 35):
Y = 23,89 + 0,97 × 15 + 0,38 × 35 = 51,79 . .
, =0,95 (a=0,05), M(Y) [47,9274; 55,6617], Y [46,6893; 56,8988].
, 15 . . 35 . :
47,9274 | ≤ M(Y) ≤ | 55,6617 |
() :
46,6893 | ≤ Y ≤ | 56,8988 |
, .
. , 10 . . , 9,7 . 䳿 .
10 . 3,8 . , 䳿 .
7
-
: .
: , 10 . Y , . . 1 , . . 2 , .-. -; ; ; .
6.
:
. - :
Y , . .;
1 , . .;
2 , -.
. 7.1.
- :
|
|
Y=A0·X1A1·X2A2
:
:
Y*=lnY; 0*=ln0; 1*=ln1; 2*=ln2.
:
Y* = 0*+A1·1*+ A2 ·2*.
7.1
Y | 1 | 2 | lnY | ln1 | ln2 |
2,3026 | 3,332 | 1,386 | |||
2,7726 | 3,367 | 2,079 | |||
2,8332 | 3,401 | 2,303 | |||
3,0445 | 3,434 | 2,485 | |||
3,1781 | 3,466 | 2,773 | |||
3,2149 | 3,526 | 2,89 | |||
3,2958 | 3,584 | 2,944 | |||
3,5553 | 3,611 | 2,944 | |||
3,4965 | 3,664 | 2,944 | |||
3,6109 | 3,691 | 3,002 | |||
Microsoft Excel : .
1>1, 1 . . , 0<2<1, .
R2=0,971 ( R=0,987) . .
:
1)
( 1 2):
1 ; 2 .
2) 1 2:
1 1 . . ; 2 1 -. .
3) ³ :
1 = 1 = 1,387;
2 = 2 = 0,458.
1 , 1% , 1,387%. 2 , 1 % 0,458%.
.
4) - :
1 , Y, .
2 , Y, .
5) 䳿 , :
1/2 , .
6) , ( , :
, 1/2, , .
7) :
=1,387+0,458=1,845>1, k k , k1,845 .
|
|
8) :
DY = D + 2D2 = 1,387D1 + 0,458D2.
9) (. 7.1), b.
, .7.2.
7.2
䳿
Y | ||||||||||
1 | 69,88 | 55,58 | 51,63 | 48,61 | 44,20 | 42,52 | 41,76 | 43,33 | 41,76 | 41,06 |
X2 |
. 7.1.
8
( -)
: -.
: , ( 7), -, : c2; F-; t-.