ˆ () i i y = f t, i yˆ - (
T, .
,
I y
−1 +1 + + i i i y y y
i yˆ.
190 - -
210 600 200
200 630 210
220 660 220
240 690 230
230 690 230
220 690 230
240 720 240
260 760 253
260 800 257
280 810 270
270 - -
2790 -
,
i t) ..
. i y
, i yˆ
.
:
i i i yˆ = f (t) +ε,
i
ε - .
_______ () i f t.
() i f t ,
.
(),
,
:
(ˆ) min
2 → − Σ=
n
i
I i y y,
i y - ;
i yˆ - .
:
yˆ = a + b ⋅t;
yˆ = a + b ⋅t + c ⋅t2;
yˆ = a ⋅bt.
yˆ = a + b⋅t ,
const i Δ ≈.
a b
,
:
⎪⎩
⎪⎨ ⎧
⋅ + =
⋅ + =
Σ Σ Σ
Σ Σ
A t b t yt
N a b t y
,
;
y () ;
t (
).
,
|
|
, .
, 0
= Σ=
n
i
i t:
(, - 7)
(t=0) () 4-:
. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004.
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2
+3;
(, - 6)
:
.. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004.
-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3.
:
⎪⎩
⎪⎨ ⎧
=
⋅ =
Σ Σ
Σ
B t yt
N a y
2.
n
y
a Σ =.
b = Σ
Σ
T 2
Yt.
a
,
.
b
. : b >0
, b <0
. ,
. ,
b
(
).
, :
.
: yˆ = a + b ⋅t + c ⋅t2.
.
>0 , <0 .
, :
⎪ ⎪⎩
⎪⎪⎨
⎧
⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =
⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =
⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =
Σ Σ Σ Σ
Σ Σ Σ Σ
Σ Σ Σ
.
,
,
2 3 4 2
2 3
A t b t c t yt
A t b t c t yt
N a b t c t y
Σ = 0 i t, :
⎪ ⎪⎩
⎪⎪⎨
⎧
⋅ + ⋅ =
⋅ =
⋅ + ⋅ =
Σ Σ Σ
Σ Σ
Σ Σ
.
,
,
2 4 2
A t c t yt
B t yt
N a c t y
:
Σ
Σ = t2
Yt
B;
Σ Σ
Σ Σ Σ Σ
⋅ −
⋅ − ⋅
= 4 2 2
4 2 2
N t (t)
T y t yt
A;
Σ Σ
Σ Σ Σ
⋅ −
|
|
⋅ − ⋅
= 4 2 2
2 2
N t (t)
N yt t y
C.
yˆ = a ⋅bt
: T const i =.