.


:




:

































 

 

 

 





ˆ () i i y = f t, i yˆ - (

T, .

,

I y

−1 +1 + + i i i y y y

i yˆ.

190 - -

210 600 200

200 630 210

220 660 220

240 690 230

230 690 230

220 690 230

240 720 240

260 760 253

260 800 257

280 810 270

270 - -

2790 -

,

i t) ..

. i y

, i yˆ

.

:

i i i yˆ = f (t) +ε,

i

ε - .

_______ () i f t.

() i f t ,

.

(),

,

:

(ˆ) min

2 → − Σ=

n

i

I i y y,

i y - ;

i yˆ - .

:

yˆ = a + b ⋅t;

yˆ = a + b ⋅t + c ⋅t2;

yˆ = a ⋅bt.

yˆ = a + b⋅t ,

const i Δ ≈.

a b

,

:

⎪⎩

⎪⎨ ⎧

⋅ + =

⋅ + =

Σ Σ Σ

Σ Σ

A t b t yt

N a b t y

,

;

y () ;

t (

).

,

, .

, 0

= Σ=

n

i

i t:

(, - 7)

(t=0) () 4-:

. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004.

-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2

+3;

(, - 6)

:

.. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004.

-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3.

:

⎪⎩

⎪⎨ ⎧

=

⋅ =

Σ Σ

Σ

B t yt

N a y

2.

n

y

a Σ =.

b = Σ

Σ

T 2

Yt.

a

,

.

b

. : b >0

, b <0

. ,

. ,

b

(

).

, :

.

: yˆ = a + b ⋅t + c ⋅t2.

.

>0 , <0 .

, :

⎪ ⎪⎩

⎪⎪⎨

⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =

⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =

⋅ + ⋅ + ⋅ =

Σ Σ Σ Σ

Σ Σ Σ Σ

Σ Σ Σ

.

,

,

2 3 4 2

2 3

A t b t c t yt

A t b t c t yt

N a b t c t y

Σ = 0 i t, :

⎪ ⎪⎩

⎪⎪⎨

⋅ + ⋅ =

⋅ =

⋅ + ⋅ =

Σ Σ Σ

Σ Σ

Σ Σ

.

,

,

2 4 2

A t c t yt

B t yt

N a c t y

:

Σ

Σ = t2

Yt

B;

Σ Σ

Σ Σ Σ Σ

⋅ −

⋅ − ⋅

= 4 2 2

4 2 2

N t (t)

T y t yt

A;

Σ Σ

Σ Σ Σ

⋅ −

⋅ − ⋅

= 4 2 2

2 2

N t (t)

N yt t y

C.

yˆ = a ⋅bt

: T const i =.





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:

, , .
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