, . - ( ) , . , , , , , , ( , ), . , 1. , . (, ), : ( , , ..), (, , ) (, , , ..). , , , , , . , .
. , , , , [.267] (), . , .
- . 1960- . , . , , , ( . , . , . ., . , . ). , 2.
|
|
1960- 1970- . , 3 4. .
, , , 5. .
. , , . 1968 . . [.268]. 1969 . American Political Science Review (Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis), 1971 . 6.
, . , ( I, II III , , , ) , , : , . , , , . , . , , .
, . , . . , . . 7 , , , , . . -, , , . [.269] ; , . -, , , , . -, .
|
|
, . . , , - , 8. , , . , , , , .
, , , , , . . , , . , , . [.270]
1 ., : Bosc R. Sociologie de la paix. P., 1965; Braillard Ph., Djalili M.R. Les relations Internationales. P., 1988.
2 ., : Simon H. Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment // Psychological Review. 1956. Vol. LXIII.
3 .: Greenstein F. Personality and Politics. Chicago, 1969.
4 .: Shapiro M., Bonham M. Cognitive Process and Foreign Policy Decision-making // International Studies Quarterly. 1973. Vol. XVII.
5 .: Neustadt R. Alliance Politics. N.Y., 1970.
6 Allison G. Essence of Decision. Boston: Little, Brown, 1971.
7 .: Bendor J., Hammond T. Rethinking Allison's Models // American Political Science Review. 1992. Vol. 86. 2.
8 .: Childress ., Ahart J. Allison Revisited: Senior Leaders Do Make a Difference. Newport, RI: The United States Naval War College, National Security Decision Maring Department. 1997. 87. PMI 33.
..
1
, . 1962 . , - , . , , , . , 1:3 1:1, , . , . , - , , .
|
|
. . , . , , . , , , , . , [.271] , .
:
1. , .
, , , , . , , , . . : , , . , , , : ? ? ? , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , .
2. ( ) , , ( I).
, . , , [.272] , . , , , , , , , .
|
|
3. , ( II) ( III).
, , , , , . I , , .. 2 , : ) , , ) , , , , . II . , I , , . [.273], , II, , . III . , , , , , , . , , III, , , , , .