(), , F () F ( 4). (102):
, (102)
k () .
(102) (103):
. (103)
(103) ( . 31): 89410,434 = 9652,171 + 79758,263.
[32] : . F > F , .
(102):
F = 79758,263*5/(9652,171*1) = 41,32 > F, , (F = 6,61 4 1- [ = k 1 = 2 1 = 1] 5- [ = n k = 5]).
, , , , [33].
- , , . (104):
, (104)
, ; =n1 ( 2)[34]; , (105):
. (105)
2007 2008 0,95 ( 0,05), (105): = = 43,937 2: = 2,4469 = 7 1= 6.
2007 2008 0,95 (104):
Y2007 = (257,671+53,371 *4) 2,4469*43,937 363,6< Y2007 <578,7 (. .);
Y2008 = (257,671+53,371 *5) 2,4469*43,937 417,0< Y2008 <632,0 (. .).
, (- ). 2- [35].
, , , .
. , , ; .
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(). , . 32 (. 15).
32. ,
t | |||||||||||||
33,333 | 38,000 | 43,667 | 54,333 | 55,333 | 69,000 | 64,667 | 52,000 | 42,333 | 36,000 | 33,333 | 31,333 | ||
0,723 | 0,824 | 0,947 | 1,178 | 1,200 | 1,496 | 1,402 | 1,128 | 0,918 | 0,781 | 0,723 | 0,680 |
. 15. ,
. , , . 33 . 16, . 32 .
33. ,
. 16. ,
, , , , , , .
, , . 2 : .
, t , , (). . , () (106):
, (106)
Yt () t;
.
, , :
, (107)
t T .
, 32, 3 , (107), (4- 32), , T =3, (5- 32). : . 6- 32 (107), 5- 46,111.
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(106) (107) . () :
. (108)
, , :
. (109)
. , , , ( k ). ( 4) , .
(), .
, k=1
, (110)
k=2, ,
(111)
.
, , , , . [36], :
; ; . (112)
t 0 (), , n .
, n=10 t :
,
( ): ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; .
n=12 t 34, sin kt cos kt .
34. sin kt cos kt 12-
t | p/6 | p/3 | p/2 | 2p/3 | 5p/6 | p | 7p/6 | 4p/3 | 3p/2 | 5p/3 | 11p/6 | |
cost | 1 | |||||||||||
sint | 1 |
35 ( 1 2) , (k=1) (112).
35.
(t) | ||||||||||||||
(0) | (p/6) | (p/3) | (p/2) | (2p/3) | (5p/6) | (p) | (7p/6) | (4p/3) | (3p/2) | (5p/3) | (11p/6) | |||
y | ||||||||||||||
ycost | 30,31 | 22,5 | -29 | -55,4 | -69 | -45 | -21 | -0 | 16,5 | 26,85 | ||||
ysint | 17,5 | 38,97 | 50,23 | -26 | -36,4 | -35 | -28,6 | -15,5 | ||||||
31,71 | 37,84 | 46,18 | 54,51 | 60,58 | 62,78 | 60,51 | 54,39 | 46,04 | 37,72 | 31,64 | 29,44 | |||
y | ||||||||||||||
ycost | 34,64 | -23 | -60,6 | -60 | -41,6 | -23 | -0 | 30,31 | ||||||
ysint | 38,11 | 39,84 | -24 | -39,8 | -38 | -31,2 | -17,5 | |||||||
31,71 | 37,84 | 46,18 | 54,51 | 60,58 | 62,78 | 60,51 | 54,39 | 46,04 | 37,72 | 31,64 | 29,44 | |||
y | ||||||||||||||
ycost | 33,77 | -31 | -63,2 | -65 | -48,5 | -19,5 | -0 | 15,5 | 24,25 | -259,234 | ||||
ysint | 19,5 | 36,37 | 53,69 | 36,5 | -28 | -33,8 | -35 | -26,8 | -14 | 151,122 | ||||
31,71 | 37,84 | 46,18 | 54,51 | 60,58 | 62,78 | 60,51 | 54,39 | 46,04 | 37,72 | 31,64 | 29,44 |
: = 46,11114,402cos t + 8,396sin t, t .35 , .17 , , .
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. 17. ,
, .. [37], , .
() (104). , 2007 0,95, (105): = = 4,727 ( n >30) 1: t = 1,96. 2007 0,95 (104): Y07 = 31,71 1,99*4,727 22,44< Y2007 <40,974 ().
() 2000-2006 . , . 36.
36. () 2000-2006 .
. . | 60,1 | 48,1 | 46,3 | 59,9 | 85,8 | 118,3 | 140,7 |
: 2007 2008 0,95.
. 36 . 18.
. 18. () 2000-2006 .
. 36 . 18 2000-2006 .. , . 2- (92). (a0, a1, a2) , (99) . . , .. , a0, a1, a2 S . , S a0, a1, a2 .
:
2, y , , :
(113)
(113), t . ∑ t = 0 ∑ t3 = 0, (113) :
(114)
(114) [38], a0, a1, a2:
(115) (116) (117)
(115) (117) , . 37.
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37.
y | t | t2 | t4 | yt | yt2 | |||||
60,1 | -3 | -180,3 | 540,9 | 56,614 | 12,150 | 541,5727 | 391,4745 | |||
48,1 | -2 | -96,2 | 192,4 | 49,764 | 2,770 | 907,3177 | 1010,332 | |||
46,3 | -1 | -46,3 | 46,3 | 51,679 | 28,929 | 795,6187 | ||||
59,9 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 62,357 | 6,038 | 307,2558 | 399,4288 | ||||
85,8 | 85,8 | 85,8 | 81,800 | 16,000 | 3,66449 | 34,97878 | ||||
118,3 | 236,6 | 473,2 | 110,007 | 68,771 | 907,2919 | 1475,657 | ||||
140,7 | 422,1 | 1266,3 | 146,979 | 39,420 | 4501,509 | 3698,377 | ||||
559,2 | 421,7 | 2604,9 | 559,200 | 174,079 | 7964,23 | 8138,249 |
. 37 (115) (117): a0 = 62,357, a1 = 15,061 a2 = 4,382. =62,357+15,061t+4,382t2. 8- . 37 () , , 9- (98). . 19.
. 19.
. 19, , , , 2- () 2000-2006 .
(103) ( . 37): 8138,249 = 174,079 + 7964,23. (102): F = 7964,23*4/(174,079*2) = 91,5 > F, (F = 6,94 4 2- [ = k 1 = 3 1 = 2] 4- [ = n k = 4]).
2007 2008 0,95, (105): = = 6,597 2: = 2,4469 = 7 1= 6.
2007 2008 0,95 (104):
Y2007 = (62,357+15,061*4+4,382 *42) 2,4469*6,597 176,6< Y2007 <208,9 (. .);
Y2008 = (62,357+15,061*5+4,382 *52) 2,4469*6,597 231,1< Y2007 <263,4 (. .).
, , 2006 2007 . , . , , . , .
, 38 ( ), 2007 .
38.
, . | , . | ( ), . | , . ( .) | - , .. ( .) | , , . . | ,, . . | , .. ( ) | , ( ) | , % ( ) | |
897,3 | 627,7 | 307,4 | 120,2 | |||||||
1001,6 | 763,5 | 319,6 | 118,6 | |||||||
1019,8 | 853,6 | 339,6 | 115,1 | |||||||
1091,8 | 798,8 | 354,1 | 112,0 | |||||||
979,7 | 635,8 | 364,3 | 111,7 | |||||||
1066,4 | 604,9 | 387,3 | 110,9 | |||||||
1113,7 | 640,9 | 409,0 | 109,0 |
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