, . , . , . - .
.
- , .
- , , 0.
- , .
0.
.
.
.
, , .
, , , .
, .. .
, . .
, (ti), (Qi). (.I.2.I.).
.I.2.I. , .
, .. ti Qi .
t0, (-I)- - , , (-1) .
|
|
(to)= {Q k ≥ to } = 1- FK (to), (1.1)
Fk (to)- Qk.
[k (t)] , (-I)- - t, .
Nk (to) nk (t)
(t)= = 1- ,
Nk (0) Nk (0) (I.2)
Nk (to)- t'= to;
Nk (0)- t'= 0;
nk (to)- , t'= to.
to, (-I)- - , , to , (-I)- .
Qk (to) = {Q k < to } = FK (to) = 1- (to) (I.3)
, (-I)- - to, .
nk (to) Nk (to)
Qk (to) = = 1 -
Nk (0) Nk (0) (I.4)
(to) Qk (to) . I.2.2.
13
.I.2.2. , (to) Q (to):
) ;
), ), ) .
, t, . , , .
t.
1 d f (t)
λ(t) = F (t) =
1- F (t) dt P (t) (I.5)
t , .
λ(t) [t, t+ ∆t] t ∆t.
n(t+∆t) n(t) ∆n (t, ∆t)
λ(t)= = ,
N(t) ∆t N (t) ∆t (I.6)
n(t) , t;
N(t) , t;
∆n(t, ∆t) ,
[t, t + ∆t].
, , ,
Q(t, t + ∆t) d Q
ω= lim = ,
∆t→0 ∆t d t (I.7)
Q (t, t + ∆t) , t t + ∆t.
|
|
, .. , .. .
, , , , .
, , .. ∆t .
∆n (t, ∆t)
ω(t)= λ(t)=
N (t) ∆t (I.8)
ω(t) λ(t), .. ω(t)= ω= const λ(t)= λ= const
ω λ= const (I.9)
,
ω = λ= const (I.I0)
, .. , , , n t . t
()= ωt (I.11)
k k
(ωt) (λt)
Pk (t)= exp (-ωt)= exp (-λt) (I.I2)
K! K!
, , , , , . . I.2.3.
. I.2.3. ω (t) .
I- , .
;
II- , . ω, , ;
III- , .
, II
ω(t)= ω= const λ(t)= λ= const
,
ω = λ= const
, .
t, .. Pk (t) (I.I2) =0
0 (t)= exp (-ωt)= exp (-λt) (I.I3)
Q0 (t)= 1- 0 (t)= 1- exp (-ωt)= 1- exp (-λt) (I.I4)
, (I.I3) (I.I4) . I.2.4.
. I.2.4. (t) Q(t).
(I.I5)
n (t, t) (I.8) , ω , ω. , .
- :
ω
ωk=
r1
ω
- : ωk=
r2
r1 r2 I α.
|
|
, 0,91-0,95.
. , ω= f (t) . , 10 .
, , .
(I.I6)
ti- ;
n- .
1 ,
(I.I7)
8760- .
(I.I8)
-
- i- ( ).
τ- .
(I.I9)
ti- , ;
- .
(τ) , .
- , .
(I.20)
, ,
(I.21)
- , ;
- , ;
- .
, r, - ,
(I.22)
(1.17),
(1.23)
,
(1.24)
, . , (),
..= (1.25)
, (1.24)
..= (1.26)
- , , , , (to) Qk (to)
(1.27)
|
|
(1.28)
m-
t-
ω- .
- , ,
(1.29)
, . , , , .
2.
, , , . .
ωn (1/) n (.).
(2.1)
(2.2)
, . , , . .. 2 .
:
1. .
2. , . .
3. .
4. , , . .
5. , .
6. .