, . - - , . : , , .
6.5.1.
, .
1. Linear trend ( ) Additive ().
2. Season components Lag ___ ( ) 4 (.. 4 ).
3. , Grid search Perform grid search. 6.6.
6.6 - 1 = 0 y1 =0 1 ( )
Alpha | Delta | Gamma | Mean Error | Mean Abs Error | Sums of Squares | Mean Squares | Mean % Error | Mean Abs Error | |
0,4 | 0,9 | 0,4 | 36,712 | 197,157 | 60275,46 | -0,104 | 6,132 | ||
0,4 | 0,8 | 0,4 | 37,788 | 197,938 | 62206,26 | -0,092 | 6,072 | ||
0,4 | 0,9 | 0,6 | 30,107 | 205,065 | 62235,44 | -0,001 | 6,469 |
4 .
2006. ( 6.7).
6.7 ( )
I/2006 | II/2006 | III/2006 | IV/2006 | % | |
7873,0 | 9575,8 | 9988,2 | - | - | |
Alpha =0,4 Delta= 0,9 Gamma =0,4 (1 = 0 y1 =0) | 8337,92 | 9366,02 | 9730,30 | 11140,20 | 6,13 |
Alpha =0,4 Delta= 0,8 Gamma =0,4 (1 = 0 y1 =0) | 8368,49 | 9366,86 | 9754,64 | 11136,33 | 6,07 |
Alpha =0,4 Delta= 0,9 Gamma =0,6 (1 = 0 y1 =0) | 8393,16 | 9461,03 | 9850,54 | 11295,20 | 6,47 |
6.5.2.
1. 6.5.1 Initial trend 1 = 156,418.
2. User-def. initial value ( ) y1 =1259,1.
3. Grid search Perform grid search. 6.8.
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6.8 - 1 = 156,418 y1 =1259,1 1 ( )
Alpha | Delta | Gamma | Mean Error | Mean Abs Error | Sums of Squares | Mean Squares | Mean % Error | Mean Abs Error | |
0,3 | 0,9 | 0,5 | 64,752 | 182,265 | 49356,45 | 1,223 | 5,106 | ||
0,3 | 0,9 | 0,4 | 74,993 | 178,374 | 49954,69 | 1,402 | 4,926 | ||
0,3 | 0,9 | 0,8 | 47,060 | 189,521 | 51077,67 | 0,908 | 5,509 |
6.9.
6.9 ( )
I/2006 | II/2006 | III/2006 | IV/2006 | % | |
7873,0 | 9575,8 | 9988,2 | - | - | |
Alpha =0,3 Delta= 0,9 Gamma =0,5 (1 = 156,418 y1 =1259,1) | 8284,16 | 9344,05 | 9705,14 | 11145,25 | 5,11 |
Alpha =0,3 Delta= 0,9 Gamma =0,4 (1 = 156,418 y1 =1259,1) | 8251,06 | 9290,60 | 9637,92 | 11063,27 | 4,93 |
Alpha =0,3 Delta= 0,9 Gamma =0,8 (1 = 156,418 y1 =1259,1) | 8360,62 | 9466,90 | 9855,04 | 11327,90 | 5,51 |
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