: 3-1 ..
: ..
2012
1. 3
2. .4
3. 腅..5
4. 2010, 2011 ㅅ..9
5. .11
6. ..12
1. ..13
2. ʅ..14
3. ʅ.15
, , , -, () - (- ) .
9 984 670 ² (: 9 093 507 ²; : 891 163 ²), ; , .
( 3,5 1 ²) . 2010 34 .
, , . , , .
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, , . , , . - , .
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1. 1970 . 2010 . : (Y), (), (I), (G).
2. (.. )
(1)
- , - .
3. 2010, 2011 . , .
4. .
, .. , . , 2005 .
.
(1) .
().
. , , :
(2)
(2) , :
(3)
(4)
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(5)
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:
.
( ). , :
1)
:
R | 0,829600312 | ||||||
R- | 0,688236678 | ||||||
R- | 0,680242746 | ||||||
df | SS | MS | F | F | |||
5,76835E+23 | 5,76835E+23 | 86,09489471 | 2,04016E-11 | ||||
2,613E+23 | 6,69999E+21 | ||||||
8,38134E+23 | |||||||
- | t-- | P- | 95% | 95% | ||
Y- | -8019099921 | -0,163060423 | 0,871312882 | -1,07492E+11 | ||
Gt | 2,251034149 | 0,242601445 | 9,278733465 | 2,04016E-11 | 1,760326413 | 2,741741885 |
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|
10: | -8019099921 |
11: | 2,251034149 |
I:
R | 0,77847705 |
R- | 0,606026517 |
R- | 0,595924633 |
df | SS | MS | F | F | |
1,02544E+23 | 1,02544E+23 | 59,99143398 | 2,07654E-09 | ||
6,66632E+22 | 1,70931E+21 | ||||
1,69207E+23 |
- | t-- | P- | 95% | 95% | ||
Y- | -44621948539 | -1,796377466 | 0,080183629 | -94865514272 | ||
Gt | 0,949099789 | 0,122537003 | 7,745413738 | 2,07654E-09 | 0,701245307 | 1,196954271 |
20: | -44621948539 |
21: | 0,949099789 |
2)
,
( , , Gt).
(4), :
(6)
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.
, :
.
2011, 2012 .
:
n 2010 .,
- , ..
: . , :
1)
R | 0,90560922 |
R- | 0,820128058 |
R- | 0,815515957 |
df | SS | MS | F | F | |
9,33617E+22 | 9,33617E+22 | 177,8209209 | 4,13214E-16 | ||
2,04763E+22 | 5,25032E+20 | ||||
1,13838E+23 |
t-- | P- | 95% | 95% | |||
Y-- | 111052741822,95 | 15,23365601 | 5,20527E-18 | 1,25798E+11 | ||
t | 4033002602,90 | 302438499,6 | 13,3349511 | 4,13214E-16 |
a0: | 111052741822,95 |
a1: | 4033002602,90 |
2)
,
( , , t).
, ( ) 280438851144,93 284471853747,83 2011 2012 . .
:
:
2011 .
G = 280438851144,93
= 623258330811,61
I = 221542505978,50
Y = 1125239687935,04
2012 .
G = 284471853747,83
= 632336757395,17
I = 225370227898,95
Y = 1142178839041,95
:
209038407278,23 | 728798434966,27 | 266051188596,14 | 1203888030840,64 | |
280438851144,93 | 623258330811,61 | 221542505978,50 | 1125239687935,04 | |
284471853747,83 | 632336757395,17 | 225370227898,95 | 1142178839041,95 |
( , 2010 2011 ), .
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1. .. : . .: -, 2004.
2. : / .. , .. . 3- ., . . .: , 2009.
3. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/selCountry.asp
1.
1970-2010 . ( 2005 ):
Yt | Ct | It | Gt | |
381 973 822 034,2920 | 211 592 989 625,2230 | 55 140 590 782,5882 | 115 240 241 626,4810 | |
397 702 196 231,3970 | 224 544 886 657,1360 | 59 832 179 237,2892 | 113 325 130 336,9720 | |
419 360 483 476,0460 | 239 958 523 645,8090 | 63 416 128 294,3733 | 115 985 831 535,8640 | |
448 565 598 503,3030 | 256 108 370 537,8520 | 71 307 237 250,8008 | 121 149 990 714,6500 | |
465 122 099 328,5740 | 268 927 950 278,7680 | 79 173 000 032,8500 | 117 021 149 016,9560 | |
473 601 150 239,6390 | 279 177 724 392,2740 | 79 020 922 986,5806 | 115 402 502 860,7840 | |
498 225 106 384,1720 | 293 491 377 172,3820 | 84 293 772 129,7352 | 120 439 957 082,0550 | |
515 454 879 468,8830 | 301 646 850 643,1250 | 84 592 856 987,3985 | 129 215 171 838,3590 | |
535 833 858 560,6400 | 310 642 469 533,0080 | 84 951 927 791,0903 | 140 239 461 236,5420 | |
556 221 923 647,8020 | 317 777 642 690,6100 | 96 652 566 756,5683 | 141 791 714 200,6240 | |
568 250 872 963,2320 | 323 217 800 811,8650 | 93 420 084 650,8625 | 151 612 987 500,5050 | |
588 157 380 293,9780 | 326 025 791 996,2480 | 101 490 306 572,8960 | 160 641 281 724,8340 | |
571 341 928 599,6910 | 317 818 350 767,6200 | 78 999 801 174,5987 | 174 523 776 657,4720 | |
586 869 894 745,2230 | 326 161 774 296,0470 | 87 309 122 008,2672 | 173 398 998 440,9090 | |
620 993 259 084,6960 | 339 972 205 953,9690 | 97 650 361 154,5919 | 183 370 691 976,1350 | |
650 677 206 069,7470 | 356 835 743 387,6320 | 105 587 938 097,3800 | 188 253 524 584,7350 | |
666 428 687 702,2190 | 370 135 158 759,6860 | 109 499 697 676,4220 | 186 793 831 266,1110 | |
694 773 358 964,7120 | 385 555 724 782,7430 | 121 731 761 431,3640 | 187 485 872 750,6050 | |
729 334 668 282,6610 | 402 166 352 461,3660 | 133 249 907 941,3190 | 193 918 407 879,9760 | |
748 438 882 219,2290 | 415 972 453 472,7980 | 142 817 243 896,6280 | 189 649 184 849,8030 | |
749 883 555 488,4740 | 420 764 746 879,0870 | 131 689 428 472,0980 | 197 429 380 137,2890 | |
734 194 767 224,2900 | 414 143 188 395,2480 | 121 120 918 628,8480 | 198 930 660 200,1940 | |
740 620 383 174,0390 | 420 512 703 253,3450 | 116 960 766 540,8990 | 203 146 913 379,7950 | |
757 940 107 613,2500 | 428 007 320 069,6510 | 119 797 848 326,3040 | 210 134 939 217,2950 | |
794 353 142 794,5450 | 440 988 865 989,3090 | 131 604 096 351,6910 | 221 760 180 453,5450 | |
816 661 987 310,1240 | 450 054 641 352,3360 | 136 385 229 711,9080 | 230 222 116 245,8800 | |
829 882 110 623,0260 | 461 660 773 946,6390 | 136 490 838 771,8170 | 231 730 497 904,5700 | |
864 952 235 683,6010 | 482 980 546 618,9350 | 161 896 154 223,6130 | 220 075 534 841,0530 | |
900 393 069 356,6620 | 496 325 000 714,4900 | 163 656 023 597,9430 | 240 412 045 044,2290 | |
950 200 678 962,6170 | 515 191 029 085,3180 | 175 865 275 795,9440 | 259 144 374 081,3550 | |
999 927 423 209,4750 | 535 916 637 059,1300 | 190 004 216 736,6100 | 274 006 569 413,7350 | |
1 017 764 140 787,1800 | 548 069 297 240,5230 | 182 750 141 629,5550 | 286 944 701 917,1020 | |
1 047 528 953 131,3200 | 567 940 035 597,1270 | 187 946 107 377,0960 | 291 642 810 157,0970 | |
1 067 233 751 364,1000 | 585 019 239 226,0120 | 207 178 784 495,3100 | 275 035 727 642,7780 | |
1 100 531 198 721,3500 | 604 179 751 558,1890 | 224 490 221 595,6520 | 271 861 225 567,5090 | |
1 133 756 866 714,9000 | 626 331 874 485,9420 | 250 277 419 408,0800 | 257 147 572 820,8780 | |
1 165 763 194 125,2300 | 652 417 956 685,5850 | 265 896 576 932,4350 | 247 448 660 507,2100 | |
1 191 410 233 352,2500 | 682 299 417 469,4250 | 274 599 608 341,4460 | 234 511 207 541,3790 | |
1 199 615 795 801,6600 | 702 544 323 682,8000 | 277 968 114 916,3150 | 219 103 357 202,5450 | |
1 166 389 219 208,5600 | 705 190 348 688,4420 | 234 807 804 312,5570 | 226 391 066 207,5610 | |
1 203 888 030 840,6400 | 728 798 434 966,2710 | 266 051 188 596,1420 | 209 038 407 278,2270 | |
: | =432611372556,83 | Icp=141160345649,17 | Gcp=195745796483,941 |
2.
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, t | Gt-Gcp | Ct(Gt-Gcp) | (Gt-Gcp)^2 | It(Gt-Gcp) | t-tcp | Gt(t-tcp) | (t-tcp)^2 |
-80 505 554 857,4605 | -1,70344E+22 | 6,48114E+21 | -4,43912E+21 | -20 | -2,3048E+12 | ||
-82 420 666 146,9696 | -1,85071E+22 | 6,79317E+21 | -4,93141E+21 | -19 | -2,15318E+12 | ||
-79 759 964 948,0776 | -1,91391E+22 | 6,36165E+21 | -5,05807E+21 | -18 | -2,08774E+12 | ||
-74 595 805 769,2912 | -1,91046E+22 | 5,56453E+21 | -5,31922E+21 | -17 | -2,05955E+12 | ||
-78 724 647 466,9854 | -2,11713E+22 | 6,19757E+21 | -6,23287E+21 | -16 | -1,87234E+12 | ||
-80 343 293 623,1570 | -2,24301E+22 | 6,45504E+21 | -6,3488E+21 | -15 | -1,73104E+12 | ||
-75 305 839 401,8866 | -2,21016E+22 | 5,67097E+21 | -6,34781E+21 | -14 | -1,68616E+12 | ||
-66 530 624 645,5818 | -2,00688E+22 | 4,42632E+21 | -5,62802E+21 | -13 | -1,6798E+12 | ||
-55 506 335 247,3996 | -1,72426E+22 | 3,08095E+21 | -4,71537E+21 | -12 | -1,68287E+12 | ||
-53 954 082 283,3176 | -1,71454E+22 | 2,91104E+21 | -5,2148E+21 | -11 | -1,55971E+12 | ||
-44 132 808 983,4368 | -1,42645E+22 | 1,9477E+21 | -4,12289E+21 | -10 | -1,51613E+12 | ||
-35 104 514 759,1073 | -1,1445E+22 | 1,23233E+21 | -3,56277E+21 | -9 | -1,44577E+12 | ||
-21 222 019 826,4690 | -6,74475E+21 | 4,50374E+20 | -1,67654E+21 | -8 | -1,39619E+12 | ||
-22 346 798 043,0325 | -7,28867E+21 | 4,99379E+20 | -1,95108E+21 | -7 | -1,21379E+12 | ||
-12 375 104 507,8062 | -4,20719E+21 | 1,53143E+20 | -1,20843E+21 | -6 | -1,10022E+12 | ||
-7 492 271 899,2064 | -2,67351E+21 | 5,61341E+19 | -7,91094E+20 | -5 | -9,41268E+11 | ||
-8 951 965 217,8303 | -3,31344E+21 | 8,01377E+19 | -9,80237E+20 | -4 | -7,47175E+11 | ||
-8 259 923 733,3363 | -3,18466E+21 | 6,82263E+19 | -1,0055E+21 | -3 | -5,62458E+11 | ||
-1 827 388 603,9654 | -7,34914E+20 | 3,33935E+18 | -2,43499E+20 | -2 | -3,87837E+11 | ||
-6 096 611 634,1383 | -2,53602E+21 | 3,71687E+19 | -8,70701E+20 | -1 | -1,89649E+11 | ||
1 683 583 653,3477 | 7,08393E+20 | 2,83445E+18 | 2,2171E+20 | ||||
3 184 863 716,2527 | 1,31899E+21 | 1,01434E+19 | 3,85754E+20 | 1,98931E+11 | |||
7 401 116 895,8536 | 3,11226E+21 | 5,47765E+19 | 8,6564E+20 | 4,06294E+11 | |||
14 389 142 733,3536 | 6,15866E+21 | 2,07047E+20 | 1,72379E+21 | 6,30405E+11 | |||
26 014 383 969,6037 | 1,14721E+22 | 6,76748E+20 | 3,4236E+21 | 8,87041E+11 | |||
34 476 319 761,9387 | 1,55162E+22 | 1,18862E+21 | 4,70206E+21 | 1,15111E+12 | |||
35 984 701 420,6287 | 1,66127E+22 | 1,2949E+21 | 4,91158E+21 | 1,39038E+12 | |||
24 329 738 357,1116 | 1,17508E+22 | 5,91936E+20 | 3,93889E+21 | 1,54053E+12 | |||
44 666 248 560,2877 | 2,2169E+22 | 1,99507E+21 | 7,3099E+21 | 1,9233E+12 | |||
63 398 577 597,4136 | 3,26624E+22 | 4,01938E+21 | 1,11496E+22 | 2,3323E+12 | |||
78 260 772 929,7936 | 4,19413E+22 | 6,12475E+21 | 1,48699E+22 | 2,74007E+12 | |||
91 198 905 433,1607 | 4,99833E+22 | 8,31724E+21 | 1,66666E+22 | 3,15639E+12 | |||
95 897 013 673,1556 | 5,44638E+22 | 9,19624E+21 | 1,80235E+22 | 3,49971E+12 | |||
79 289 931 158,8367 | 4,63861E+22 | 6,28689E+21 | 1,64272E+22 | 3,57546E+12 | |||
76 115 429 083,5678 | 4,59874E+22 | 5,79356E+21 | 1,70872E+22 | 3,80606E+12 | |||
61 401 776 336,9366 | 3,84579E+22 | 3,77018E+21 | 1,53675E+22 | 3,85721E+12 | |||
51 702 864 023,2687 | 3,37319E+22 | 2,67319E+21 | 1,37476E+22 | 3,95918E+12 | |||
38 765 411 057,4376 | 2,64496E+22 | 1,50276E+21 | 1,0645E+22 | 3,98669E+12 | |||
23 357 560 718,6035 | 1,64097E+22 | 5,45576E+20 | 6,49266E+21 | 3,94386E+12 | |||
30 645 269 723,6197 | 2,16107E+22 | 9,39133E+20 | 7,19575E+21 | 4,30143E+12 | |||
13 292 610 794,2856 | 9,68763E+21 | 1,76694E+20 | 3,53651E+21 | 4,18077E+12 | |||
tcp=21 | : | 2,56253E+23 | 1,13838E+23 | 1,08044E+23 | 2,31494E+13 |
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