:
..., , .. ,
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..., ..
..., ..
,
4 16.12.2014 .
2015
1. | 3 |
2. | 4 |
3. | 6 |
4. | 6 |
5. | 7 |
6. | 8 |
7. | 9 |
8. | 10 |
9. | 11 |
9.1 | 11 |
9.2 | 13 |
9.3 | 16 |
9.4 | 19 |
9.5 | 24 |
10. | 25 |
10.1.1 | 26 |
10.1.2 | 26 |
10.1.3 | 26 |
10.1.4 | 27 |
10.1.5 | 28 |
10.1.6 | 30 |
10.1.7 | 31 |
10.2 | 31 |
10.2.1 | 31 |
10.2.2 | 32 |
1 | 35 |
39 |
, , , , . . (time value of money) (cash flow).
: , . .
1. .
2. - .
3. .
, , , .
. . . , , . .
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|
FV (future value), , , , . , , .
(present value) PV . :
FV
PV = --------------,
(1 + i)n
FV = PV × (1 + i)n
PV ,
FV ,
n ,
i .
, FM1(i,n)= (1+i)n FM2(i,n)=1/ (1+i)n i ( , , ).
1(i,) , : , ( , . .) i. , . , , .
2(i,) , : , .. (, ), , () i. , , . , , . . , , . . , , . . . .
, , .
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(interest). , , .
I , i - P , : i = I / P.
2.
, . , , . , . , () , . .
(1+n*i) (1+i)n () .
. , 1000 . (PV) 10% . , 5 , .
.
FV1= 1000* (1+0.1) = 1100 .
1000 , , 100 . 1000 . 1100 .
1100 . ,
FV2= 1100* (1+0.1) = 1210 .
. 1000 , 100 . 100 . , , . 10 . , , 100 , . , , . 210 . (200 .) (10 .).
, 5 .
FV5= 1000* (1+0.1)5 = 1610.51 .
, 1000 . 10% 1610.51 . 610.51 ., 500 . 110.51 .
. 20 1000 . 40 10% . , 60 , . .
FV = 1000 * (1+0.1)40 = 45259.26
1000 ., 1000*0.1*40 = 4000 . , 40259.26 .
11%.
FV = 1000 * (1+0.11)40 = 65000.87 .
1% 24741.61 .
, . . , , , . :
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FV = PV * (1+ n*i).
.
. . 20 1000 . 40 10% . , 60 , .
FV = 1000 * (1+40*0.1) = 1000+4000 = 5000
1000 . 1000*0.1*40 = 4000 .
, . . , , , . , , .
1. 10000 . () 18% ?
:
FV = PV *(1+n*i) = 10000*(1+2*0,18) = 13600 .
:
FV = PV *(1+ i)n= 10000*(1+*0,18)2= 13924 .
2. 10%.
FV = 2*PV = PV *(1+n*i),
2 = *(1+n*0,1),
n = (2-1)/0,1 =10 .
FV = 2*PV = PV *(1+i)n
(1+i)n = 2,
n*Ln(1+0,1) =Ln2,
n= Ln2/ Ln(1+0,1) = 0,69/0,095 = 7,26 .
3. ( ) .
FV = PV *(1+n*i),
FV = 2*PV = PV *(1+10*i),
(1+10*i) = 2,
i = 1/10 = 0,1.
FV = 2*PV = PV *(1+i)10
i = 2 1/10 1 = 0,072.
4. , . 10000 ., 15%. 12%, 10%. ? .
FV = PV *(1+n1*i1 + n2*i2 + n3*i3) = 10000*(1+1*0,15+1*0,12+1*0,1) = 13700 .
FV = PV *(1+ i1)n1 *(1+ i2)n2 *(1+ i3)n3 = 10000* *(1+ 0,15)1*(1+ 0,12)1*(1+ 0,1)1 = 10000* 1,15*1,12*1,1 = 14168 .
5. 1000 . 9% , 6%. .
FV = PV *(1+n1*i1 + n2*i2) = 1000*(1+2*0,09+3*0,06) = 1360 .
FV = PV *(1+ i1)n1 *(1+ i2)n2 = 1000* *(1+ 0,09)2*(1+ 0,06)3 = 1417 .
3.
, , , . . , , 1 , , , , , .
, , 6% , . , 1/12 6%, 0.5%.
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FV = (1.005)12 = 1.061678
I = 1.06168-1 = 0.061678 = 6.1678% .
:
I = (1+i/m)m 1,
I , m .
. , -
I = Lim (1+i/m)m 1 = ei - 1= 2.71828i -1
m .
e 0.06 - 1= 6.1836 .
. 12% . . .
I = (1+0,12/4)4 1 = 12,55%.
4.
() . , , .
1 . n :
FV
PV = --------------,
(1 + i)n
PV ,
FV ,
n ,
i .
. , 1000 . (i=10%)
PV = 1000 / (1+0.1)5 = 620.92 .
, (1+i)n. . , , 1 8%
PV = 1/(1+0,08)1 = 0,93,
10%
PV = 1/(1+0,1)1 = 0,91.
.
. (NPV). , , .
. 1000 . 5 750 . 8% . .
NPV , . , . 8%.
1000 . 5 .
PV = 1000/1.08^5 = 680.58 .
, 680.58 ., 750 . 680.58 750 = -69.42, .
NPV , . 69.42 .
NPV . , 5000 . . 12 % . 5000 ., 9000 . 4 . . 9000 .
PV = 9000/(1+0.12)4 = 5719.66 .
, NPV 5000-5719.66= -719.66 . .
(internal rate of return) IRR. , . , IRR , NPV = 0.
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IRR
750 = 1000/(1+IRR)^5
IRR = 5.92%.
, 5.92% , .
5.
, .. , . , .
, . . , , , . . , . .
: () , . . ( ); () , . . ( ).
, . . . , () , .
FV = Σ Ck * (1+i)k
. 1000 . , 10% , . , . 1000 .
FV1 = 1000* (1+0,1)1 = 1100 .
1000 . 2100 .
FV2 = 2100* (1+0,1)1 = 2310 .
() . , , .
PV = Σ Ck / (1+i)k
, 1000 . 10%. 100 . . .
PV = 100 / (1+0,1)1 + 100 / (1+0,1)2. + 1000 / (1+0,1)2 = 8438,01 .
. , , , , .
. . , . , : . . , . :
1 = =... = = .
, .
PVA = A/(1+i)+A/(1+i)2 A/(1+i)3++A/(1+i)n.
B = A/(1+i),
C = 1/(1+i).
PVA = B*(1+C+C2+C3+ +Cn-1) *
C
PVA* = B*(C+C2+C3+ +Cn) **
** *
PVA*(1-) = B*(1-Cn).
PVA*[1-1/(1+i)] = A/(1+i)*[1-1/(1+i)n)].
(1+i)
PVA*i = A*[1-1/(1+i)n)]
PVA = A*[1/i-1/(i*(1+i)n)].
.
FVA = A+A*(1+i)2 A*(1+i)3++A*(1+i)n-1.
B=A*(1+i)/
FVA = A*(1+B +B2 B3++Bn-1).
B.
FVA*B = A*(B +B2 B3++Bn).
,
FVA*(1-B) = A*(1-Bn).
FVA = A/i*[(1+i)n-1].
FM1(i,n)= (1+i)n FM2(i,n)=1/ (1+i)n FM3(i,n)= 1/i*[(1+i)n-1] FM4(i,n)= [1/i-1/(i*(1+i)n)] i . F(i,), , : , (, ) . , , . F4(i,) i n.
. , ( , 50 ).
. ,
PVA = A*[1/i-1/(i*(1+i)n)]
n .
PVA = A/i
. ; i (, , ).
7.
, , . : . . , , , , , , , , .
, 100000 . 9% . , A, PVA 100000 . 9% :
PVA = A*[1/i-1/(i*(1+i)n)].
A = PVA/[1/i-1/(i*(1+i)n)].
A = 100000/[1/0.09-1/(0.09*(1+0.09)3)].
, 39505,48 . , 39505,48 . ? 9% , , , 0,09 100000, 9000 . 39504,48 ., 30505,48 . 100000 . , 100000 . - 30505,48 ., 69 494,52 . .
. 0.09 69 494,52 ., 6254,51 . 39504,48 . 33250,97 . . , , 69494,52 . - 33250,97 ., 36243,54 .
, 36243,54 . (.. 1,09 36243,55 . = 39504,47 .). .
1 | 100000 | 39505 | 9000 | 30505 | 69495 |
2 | 69495 | 39505 | 6255 | 33251 | 36244 |
3 | 36244 | 39505 | 3262 | 36244 | 0 |
0 | 118515 | 18515 | 100000 |
, 39504,48 . , , , , , .
8.
.
. 20 100 . 8% . , 100 . , 65 , 3192 . , 45 . , , . , , , 8% 45 , 3192 . , 100 . .
, , , , . . , , .
, , :
1 + = (1 + )*(1 + )
,
= ( - )/(1 + ).
. 2005 19%, 11%. , .. .
ir = (in - π)/(1+π) = (0,19 - 0,11)/(1+0,11) = 0,08/1,11 = 0,072 = 7,2%.
= - .
8%, 11%. .
. 8%, 3%. , .. . :
ir = (in - π)/(1+π) = (0,08 - 0,03)/(1+0,03) = 0,05/1,03 = 0,0485 = 4,85%.
ir = (in - π) = 0,05 = 5,0%
1%, .
, . , 20 100 . , , 65 . .
. 100 . , (8%-5%)/1.05 = 2,857% 45 .
= 100 . 1,0285745 = 355 .
. , 8% :
FV 45 = 100 . x 0845 = 3192 .
45 , 5% :
45 = 1,0545 = 8,985
: 3192/8.985 = $355.