, , , . - .
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yi= yi w + (1-w)y(i-1), (23)
w .
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, (yi) (y) , , (. 6), . .
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- , y = a + b/t;
- , y = a + bt + ct2.
. 6.
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12 12
12+bSti=Syi ,
1 1
12 12 12
Sti +bSt2=Syiti .
1 1 1
t.
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7. 2015
yi, . | |
597874 | |
622225 | |
671769 | |
774869 | |
867642 | |
898719 | |
908961 | |
937205 | |
926033 | |
880329 | |
820838 | |
750947 |
|
|
8.
yi(3) | yi(5) | yiw | (1-w)y(i-1) | yi | |
1 | 597874,00 | ||||
2 | 630622,67 | 155556,25 | 448405,50 | 603961,75 | |
3 | 689621,00 | 706875,80 | 167942,25 | 452971,31 | 620913,56 |
4 | 771426,67 | 767044,80 | 193717,25 | 465685,17 | 659402,42 |
5 | 847076,67 | 824392,00 | 216910,50 | 494551,82 | 711462,32 |
6 | 891774,00 | 877479,20 | 224679,75 | 533596,74 | 758276,49 |
7 | 914961,67 | 907712,00 | 227240,25 | 568707,37 | 795947,62 |
8 | 924066,33 | 910249,40 | 234301,25 | 596960,71 | 831261,96 |
9 | 914522,33 | 894673,20 | 231508,25 | 623446,47 | 854954,72 |
10 | 875733,33 | 863070,40 | 220082,25 | 641216,04 | 861298,29 |
11 | 817371,33 | 205209,50 | 645973,72 | 851183,22 | |
12 | 187736,75 | 638387,41 | 826124,16 |
. 7.
. 8. ,
9.
, t | yi | t2 | yiti | yi(..)* |
1 | 597874 | 1 | 597874 | 691207,49 |
2 | 622225 | 4 | 1244450 | 711857,81 |
3 | 671769 | 9 | 2015307 | 732508,13 |
4 | 774846 | 16 | 3099476 | 753158,45 |
5 | 867642 | 25 | 4338210 | 773808,77 |
6 | 898719 | 36 | 5392314 | 794459,09 |
7 | 908961 | 49 | 6362727 | 815109,41 |
8 | 937205 | 64 | 7497640 | 835759,73 |
9 | 926033 | 81 | 8334297 | 856410,05 |
10 | 880329 | 100 | 8803290 | 877060,37 |
11 | 820838 | 121 | 9029218 | 897710,69 |
12 | 750947 | 144 | 9011364 | 918361,01 |
∑ 78 | 9657411 | 650 | 65726167 |
* :
a=670557,17,
b=20650,32,
y i(..)=670557,17+20650,32t.
2016. (t=13):
y13(..)=670557,17+20650,32*13 = 939011,33 (.).
. 9.
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10.
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
637 | 6448 | 1672 | 1709 | 4638 | 1940 | 1243 | 12544 | 3036 | |
654 | 6350 | 2316 | 1629 | 4701 | 1851 | 1087 | 12716 | 3695 | |
680 | 5939 | 2523 | 1564 | 4836 | 1672 | 1240 | 12866 | 4150 | |
630 | 5214 | 1214 | 1544 | 4722 | 1653 | 1668 | 12903 | 4186 | |
682 | 5505 | 1373 | 1557 | 4871 | 1620 | 1745 | 12846 | 4205 | |
686 | 5312 | 1434 | 1552 | 4778 | 1597 | 1797 | 12808 | 4200 | |
688 | 5327 | 1510 | 1346 | 5107 | 1601 | 1896 | 12659 | 4205 | |
690 | 5332 | 1669 | 1230 | 4976 | 1575 | 1003 | 13072 | 4211 | |
732 | 6448 | 1802 | 1245 | 4638 | 1654 | 1116 | 12544 | 3874 | |
707 | 6350 | 1858 | 1442 | 4701 | 1722 | 1156 | 12716 | 3644 | |
637 | 5939 | 1951 | 1709 | 4836 | 1940 | 1154 | 12866 | 3436 | |
654 | 6149 | 1794 | 1629 | 5083 | 1851 | 1392 | 12768 | 3256 | |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | |
2633 | 848 | 5675 | 709 | 463 | 3943 | 7241 | 1254 | 1303 | |
2654 | 850 | 5316 | 629 | 470 | 3854 | 7083 | 1271 | 1369 | |
2685 | 939 | 5523 | 564 | 481 | 3675 | 7245 | 1286 | 1415 | |
2636 | 914 | 5214 | 544 | 472 | 3656 | 7663 | 1290 | 1418 | |
2687 | 905 | 5377 | 557 | 482 | 3622 | 7742 | 1284 | 1420 | |
2688 | 912 | 5432 | 552 | 477 | 3594 | 7795 | 1280 | 1420 | |
2683 | 927 | 5515 | 546 | 510 | 3606 | 7893 | 1265 | 1420 | |
2692 | 932 | 5663 | 630 | 497 | 3574 | 7003 | 1307 | 1421 | |
2733 | 928 | 5804 | 645 | 463 | 3652 | 7114 | 1254 | 1387 | |
2704 | 950 | 5855 | 642 | 470 | 3725 | 7156 | 1271 | 1364 | |
2635 | 939 | 5956 | 609 | 483 | 3947 | 7157 | 1286 | 1343 | |
2656 | 949 | 5797 | 629 | 508 | 3855 | 7394 | 1276 | 1325 | |
19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | |
4637 | 1644 | 1675 | 1705 | 3638 | 1945 | 1244 | 2544 | 3032 | |
4654 | 1635 | 2313 | 1623 | 3701 | 1852 | 1085 | 2716 | 3623 | |
4680 | 1593 | 2525 | 1566 | 3836 | 1674 | 1247 | 2866 | 4156 | |
4630 | 1521 | 1216 | 1547 | 3722 | 1657 | 1660 | 2903 | 4186 | |
4682 | 1550 | 1377 | 1557 | 3871 | 1628 | 1744 | 2846 | 4200 | |
4686 | 1531 | 1434 | 1552 | 3778 | 1594 | 1793 | 2808 | 4209 | |
4688 | 1532 | 1512 | 1345 | 4107 | 1602 | 1892 | 2659 | 4208 | |
4690 | 1533 | 1665 | 1235 | 3976 | 1575 | 1004 | 3072 | 4217 | |
. 10 | |||||||||
19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | |
4732 | 1644 | 1806 | 1247 | 3638 | 1656 | 1115 | 2544 | 3876 | |
4707 | 1635 | 1857 | 1448 | 3701 | 1727 | 1156 | 2716 | 3645 | |
4637 | 1593 | 1954 | 1702 | 3836 | 1948 | 1157 | 2866 | 3434 | |
4654 | 1614 | 1792 | 1623 | 4083 | 1859 | 1398 | 2768 | 3253 |