, . -
432
qc , (
JI ):
-() /7(,) =
, ,
, 6
* -
, .
, ,
( ) ρ (, )=,
() (,) =
. ,
. , ,
-
.
(), , (), -
, (), -
- -
.
()
.
() (,) =
, -
,
().
() -
, , , ,
(
)
. ()
. -
.
,
() () ,
= (, b)=r. , -
() 1.
- , -
1. (,
-
, , , ,
, -
28913 433 a
, , -
; , -
, -
0.)
, ), -
() -
.
(
) -
, , .
- -
-
^
.
, -
() -
, 1934 [12,
. 148150],
,
.
( -
.) -
|
|
( , -
, = -
). 1938
,
,
, ... -
-
... -
[12, . 320].
-
,
.
, [12, . 212]
.
, -
, , -
434
, , -
, (. [12, . 327]).
,
α b p (a, )
{ ). -
. ,
α b ,
, , .
, ,
-
, -
, α .
, , -
, (
, ). -
, -
. -
, -
- (4), . 1
,
(,)=1,
. , , -
-
,
.
[6]. 1956
(. [7,
. 191]).
[12, . *IV].
4. -
-
- : 5 , , , ,...;
- ab ; --
α .
5.
4 , [12, . 332], -
2, 1 2,
C s, [12, . 334].
5 : ()
χ S, (;) -
χ S, , , ... -^... ... ...,
*-* , & .
58* 435
. b S, (, )
-
:
() (Ed) p (, ) (, ).
. b S, ab -
|
|
S, , (, be)
S,
:
((,) = (be, d) &p (be, c) = p(d, )) -
- > p (ab, ) = (, d) p (b, ) < p (a, c).
. α S, το α -
S, , , d
5, :
ρ (α, α) Φ ρ (, ) - > ρ (, )-\- (a, c)--=p(d, d).
-
( modus
ponens) BD
CD, , , ,
ab . (-
BD -
[12, . 336]):
BD p (ab, d) = p (, d) ^=* (el (E/) (p (a, d) ^
^p(c,d)^p (b, d) &.(p (a, d)^p (a, a) <
< ρ (d, /) - > p (a, a) < p (e, /))) >
- - p(a,e)p(b,d) = p (c, d))).
CD p (a, d) = p (b, d) =^ (e) (p (c, d) Φ
Φ p (, ) -- >- p (, ) -\- (b, c) = p (, )).
.
, -
436
. Cd, -
CD, 6:
Cd p (a, b) = p(c, )p (a, b) -ιν (Ed) p (, ) Φ p (d, b).
BD (, ) -
p (, ). ( A3
[12, . 332] BD.) -
CD Cd, (, )
(, ) (, ).
, [12, . 332]
BD 2. -
2
,
,
-
,
. ( , -
, -
[12, . 343344].)
,
( , -
-
) , (
1 [12, . 332]), 2. -
, 2 . 2
, , ^(, ) -
. 2
2 [12,
. 333] :
p(a) = p(a,b)p(a,c)-{-p(a,d)
, p(b,c)=p(c, b)=p(d, e)
S.
6 , Cd
, -
. Cd -
: (Ee)(Ef)p(e, /)=^0 ( -
: , 0). -
Cd ,
, -
H3*Cd,
0.
, , -
, ( )
(e)p(bc, e)p(d, e). ( -
2+ [12, . 335] 2 [12, . 332].)
437
iv
i
,
,
.
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the Philosophy of Science, 19581959, v. 9, 36, p. 307310.
|
|
2. K n e a l e W. Probability and Induction. Oxford, Clarendon
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*