. . .
, 3, 6 12 . . . 1 . . 365 . . , . , . , .
. , , 21006RMFS. (21) . (006) . RMF Russian Ministry of Finance ( ). S (State) , . 22, , 22006RMFS. 23, , 23006RMFS.
. -. . . . 1 . . . . - 24, , 24006RMFS.
() , , 100 500 . . . . , , . .
, . , . , . , , .. , , , . , . .
() 1993 . . 199 . . 1 ., 10 . 100 . . () 14 1994 ., 1996 ., 1999 ., 2003 ., 2008 . 2011. 3%. , 14 .
|
|
, . , . . . , . 0,1 . . , , , . , . , 30% , - . , 7 . , . .
Ζ .
1992 . - ( , ) (), , . 1993 . . . 90% .[1]
, . , , , . , , , , . , , , 20003000% .
|
|
1995 . (ǖ), . VIII 19961997 . - ( 10% , ). 1997 . (ǖ).
Ζ, , , . Ζ , .
, 1998 . , . . 1997 . 26.9 . . , 1998 . 20.2 . .[2]
. 9 1998 . 85.1 . . (34.1% 4.5% ), 9 1997 . 28.7 . . (10.5% 1.5% ).[3] .
, . , , 437 . ., .
. , . 31 1999 .[4] Ζ .
, . , , . .
|
|
, Ζ . ( ), [5] . .
, 25 1998 . 1007 31 1999 . 17 1998 ., , . 1998 . , . 12 1998 . , 21 1998 . 258, 375- 31 1999 . 17 1998 . .
31 1999 . 50% 19 1998 . , . . 50% . , 31 1999 ., .
, , :
(ǖ) 70% ;
20% ;
10% , . , 24 16 1999 . 30% .
|
|
, , -, , . , , 30% ( ǖ 50%). , [6] , .
12 - 4 5 , - 3 3 6 . - , 19 1998 ., 30% , 25% , 20% , 15% 10% . . ǖ 25030 , , 1 1998 ., .
15 1999 . Ζ . 26 1999 ., 28 , . 120% . , . Ζ , , .
1999 . , , , . 23 1999 . .
, , ѻ ( ), 365 .[7] , , , .[8] , . .[9]
, . , , . , , .
30 1999 . . 95% , , 88.5%.[10] Ζ 380 250 . . [11]. Ζ , .
|
|
.1.4.1. Ζ 07.05.1999.
: .
. 07.05.1999 Ζ, , 2.9 . , , 21133 40 , 2.96% .
, Ζ, , . , 1999 . (, , , ǖ ǖ). Ζ . , .
, Ζ 19992000 ., .
.1.4.2. Ζ [12] M2 1999 2001 .
: .
Ζ ǖ M2 .[13].
rt = a + b0 mt + b1 mt-1 +... + bn mt-n + et, (2.4.1)
rt ǖ t, mt M2 t,
bs = g0 + g1 s + g2 s2 + g3 s3. (2.4.2)
2.4.1.
M2 Ζ.
t- | |||
-1.4009 | -1.6103 | 0.1514 | |
-1.9270 | -4.1500 | 0.0043 | |
-1.4803 | -3.5386 | 0.0095 | |
-0.5006 | -1.4958 | 0.1784 | |
0.5726 | 1.6472 | 0.1435 | |
1.2997 | 3.0419 | 0.0188 | |
1.2411 | 2.7789 | 0.0273 | |
-0.0430 | -0.0482 | 0.9629 |
, ( 3 ) Ζ, ( 4 6 ) . ǖ 1 2 , 5 6 . M2 71.64% ǖ.
, . , .
M2 20% II 1999 ., ǖ 115.36% 12 52.82% 11 . 14 1999 . .
, 7% 8.5%, 5% 5.5%[14]. , , , . , II 1999 ., Ζ, 1999 .
IV 1999 . . M2 8.22%, ǖ 97.59% 09.11.1999 82.37% 03.12.1999. 2000 . 12 . . . .[15] , Ζ, . , , 100% .
Ζ, ǖ 73.68% . . 2000 . 8%, ǖ 10 .
21 2000 . 55% 45% . 21 14 ǖ 59.77% 46.57%. , 16 23 . 21138 , 21139 , . Ζ 17 1998 .
21139 20.10% . ǖ 27002 27008 ǖ 25022 ( 10.3 . .), 21139, (2.5 . .). . Ζ 2000 . 1.3 . ., 1999 .
2000 . Ζ , ǖ 40%. , . , 2000 . . , , . , . II 2000 . M2 18.74%, 5.1% . ǖ 24%.
2000 . , Ζ , 20.2%. . 4 27 2000 . ǖ 21.87% 25.63%, 10% 13%.
9.9% 2000 . I 2001 . 5 14 ǖ 23.48% 20.70%, . , 2001 . , , ǖ 22.46% 16 . , ǖ 21%.
Ζ , , ( , , , ) , . , Ζ, , .
.
. Standard & Poor:
-
D
+ - , , +. , , .. .