, (-).
:
1. ( ), .
2. , . .
3. , .
4. , , 1 .
5. , , , , .
6. , , .
2. , , .
(- ) : , , .
() , ; , .
:
- .
- , . , , , .
- ( 1 ), , .
:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
1) ,
2)
3)
. .
( ) .
|
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:
-
-
-
. .
- 1 . 5-10 .
lx
dx .
qx .
lx lx+1 = dx
lx lx+n = dx+ dx+1+ dx+2++ dx+n-1
n dx n .
px 1 .
npx - n
nqx - n
n/mqx (x+m) (x+m+n) .
4. . Ÿ .
S(x), .
S(x) x.
T .
:
S(x)=Pr [T≥x]
Tx , .. , , ,
S (t) =P( ≥ t)
t px =Pr( ≥ +t/ ≥ )
x+t , . ,
5. .
S(x), .
S(x) x.
T .
1,
F(x) =P( < )=1-S(x)
, , .
6. .
, . [ x,x+1] ,
() (force of mortality)
:
:
..
. .
X=k+u; k=[x]; u={x}; 0≤u≤1
S(x)=S(k+u)
lx S(x) [k;k+1]
lx=lk+u= lk+u(lk+1- lk)= lk-u*dk
S(x)=S(k+u)= S(k)+u*[ S(k+1)- S(k)]= S(k)*[1- u*qk ]
S(k+u)= -S(k)*qk => μk+u= qk /(1-u*qk)
upk=1-u*qk