- (), , , , . - , , . .
. . , , , .
,b,, .
() . :
;
.
(.. ) , , , :
; (15)
b; (16)
. (17)
:
; (18)
b; (19)
; (20)
. , . . .
, , , .
,
.
: , . .
, () (bc). , , :
|
|
. (21)
, b , . b:
, (22)
:
. (23)
, . :
a, (24)
b, (25)
c. (26)
. , .
, . ( ) , . , . , .
. ( ) ; . : (n1), (I1), (n1). D2, :
; (24)
; (25)
. (26)
. (27)
. . . () () , () , . () () :
, (28)
() :
. (29)
, . :
|
|
. (30)
F- ( ). , :
. (31)
, 1- 5- , F < F.
. . , .. .
. , , , .
( ) . , :
, (32)
; ; ;
;
;
X () ;
Y ;
N ;
M ;
h .
, .
. .
. 423250, . , . , .29 .
.
, .
, .
; ; .
. .
. .
, .
: ∆y = y i - y i-1
: ∆y = y i - y 1
. , , .
: T i = ∆yi / y i-1
: T p = ∆yi / y 1
. .
|
|
: T pi = y i / y i-1
: T p = yi / y 1
1%
: 1% i = y i-1 / 100%
: 1% = y / 100%
- ,
T = ∆yi / y 1
, % | , % | 1% | , % | |||
3643.23 | ||||||
5.26 | 105.26 | 3643.23 | 5.26 | |||
13.64 | 113.64 | 3834.98 | 14.35 | |||
7.53 | 107.53 | 4357.93 | ||||
11.11 | 111.11 | 4685.95 | 14.29 | |||
8.7 | 108.7 | 5206.61 | 12.43 | |||
2010 565936
1
2010 2009 45275 8.7%
2010 565936 45275, 8.7%
2007 (52295)
2006 (19175)
, ,
, % | , % | |||
5.26 | 105.26 | |||
19.62 | 119.62 | |||
28.62 | 128.62 | |||
42.91 | 142.91 | |||
55.34 | 155.34 |
2010 565936
2010 2005 201613 55.34%
2010 565936 201613, 55.34%
2010 (201613)
2006 (19175)
y
2005 2010 456467.67
2005 2010 1.0921
9.21%
.
40322.6
12 2010
, % | , % | 1% | , % | |||
1.01 | 405.35 | |||||
1.02 | 18.5 | 118.5 | 405.35 | 18.5 | ||
1.03 | -2227 | -4.64 | 95.36 | 480.32 | -5.49 | |
1.04 | 4.58 | 104.58 | 458.05 | 5.17 | ||
1.05 | 6.56 | 106.56 | 479.02 | 7.75 | ||
1.06 | -446 | -0.87 | 99.13 | 510.44 | -1.1 | |
1.07 | 14.83 | 114.83 | 505.98 | 18.51 | ||
1.08 | -7699 | -13.25 | 86.75 | 581.01 | -18.99 | |
1.09 | 0.4 | 100.4 | 504.02 | 0.5 | ||
1.10 | -12669 | -25.04 | 74.96 | 506.03 | -31.25 | |
1.11 | -6168 | -16.26 | 83.74 | 379.34 | -15.22 | |
1.12 | 3.68 | 103.68 | 317.66 | 2.89 | ||
|
|
1.12 32936
2
1.12 1.11 1170 3.68%
1.12 32936 1170, 3.68%
1.07 (7503)
1.10 (-12669)
, ,
, % | , % | |||
1.01 | ||||
1.02 | 18.5 | 118.5 | ||
1.03 | ||||
1.04 | 18.17 | 118.17 | ||
1.05 | 25.93 | 125.93 | ||
1.06 | 24.83 | 124.83 | ||
1.07 | 43.34 | 143.34 | ||
1.08 | 24.34 | 124.34 | ||
1.09 | 24.84 | 124.84 | ||
1.10 | -2601 | -6.42 | 93.58 | |
1.11 | -8769 | -21.63 | 78.37 | |
1.12 | -7599 | -18.75 | 81.25 |
1.12 32936
1.12 1.01 7599 18.75%
1.12 32936 7599, 18.75%
1.07 (17566)
1.11 (-8769)
y
1.01 1.12 45471.5
1.01 1.12 0.9813
-1.87%
.
690.82
100 %. 100 % .
100 % .
.
∆ | ∆,% | I, % | ||||
38771.5 | -4904.96 | -11.23 | 88.77 | |||
45942.5 | 2266.04 | 5.19 | 105.19 | |||
43812.5 | 136.04 | 0.3115 | 100.31 | |||
2141.54 | 4.9 | 104.9 | ||||
48823.5 | 5147.04 | 11.78 | 111.78 | |||
50593.5 | 6917.04 | 15.84 | 115.84 | |||
55573.5 | 11897.04 | 27.24 | 127.24 | |||
48209.5 | 4533.04 | 10.38 | 110.38 | |||
48401.5 | 4725.04 | 10.82 | 110.82 | |||
-7392.46 | -16.93 | 83.07 | ||||
-13292.46 | -30.43 | 69.57 | ||||
31503.5 | -12172.96 | -27.87 | 72.13 | |||
43676.46 |
y = bt + a
1. .
:
a0n + a1∑t = ∑y
|
|
a0∑t + a1∑t2 = ∑yt
:
12a0 + 78a1 = 545658
78a0 + 650a1 = 3413778
0
a0 = -930.06, a1 = 51516.91
:
y = -930.06 t + 51516.91
a b βi, .
b = -930.06 ( ) t . t 1 , y -930.06.
.
.
5%-7% .
7%, .
.
.
t , , 1%.
1. , t 1%, Y 1%. - t Y .
.
. [0;1].
. [0;1].
(). :
0.1 < η < 0.3: ;
0.3 < η < 0.5: ;
0.5 < η < 0.7: ;
0.7 < η < 0.9: ;
0.9 < η < 1: ;
, t y.
.
.. 17.52% . - - .
:
1) -- (, , ); (, , , );
2) (, , , ).
, ( , ) ( , , ).
1. .., .. , .,1995 .
2. , . .., ., 1987 .
3. . . . .: ‑, 2001
4. .., .. .: ‑, 1999.
5. : . / .. , .. , .. .; . .. . .: , 1989.