-
___________________ .. -07-2
,
__________________ ..., ..
, 2009
(. 11)
(x) (y):
i , . , .
Yi , .. - .
n=10
-X () | ||||||||||
Y (..) |
1) XOY , . .. , , x y .
1
2) y=a+bx, a b .
i | yi | xi2 | yi2 | xi yi | ŷi | yi-ŷi | (yi-ŷi)2 | ||
49,79 | 0,2022 | 0,04080 | |||||||
51,87 | -1,8797 | 3,5332 | |||||||
51,87 | -1,8797 | 3,5332 | |||||||
51,87 | -1,8797 | 3,5332 | |||||||
62,28 | -2,2892 | 5,2404 | |||||||
62,28 | -2,2892 | 5,2404 | |||||||
62,28 | 7,7108 | 59,4564 | |||||||
62,28 | 7,7108 | 59,4564 | |||||||
72,69 | -2,6987 | 7,2829 | |||||||
72,69 | -2,6987 | 7,2829 | |||||||
∑ | 599,99 | 0,0089 | 154,6004 | ||||||
. | 28,9 | 850,1 | 59,99 | 0,0008 | 15,6004 |
,
(2 6), :
= - 0,1678
2,0819
:
ŷ= - 0,1678 + 2,0819x
:
σ2 = = = 19.325
:
= * 19.325 = 0,0023
= 0,0479
= * 19.325 = 2,6772
= 1,6362
ŷ= .
|
|
:
- < a < +
- < b < + ,
(t ) . , . = t =2,306
:
-0,1678 2,306*0,0479 < < -0,1678 + 2,306*0,0479
-0.2782 < < -0,0573
2,0819 2,306*1,6362 < b < 2,0819 + 2,306*1,6362
-1,6911 < b < 5,8549
ŷ= - 0,1678 + 2,0819x
(0.0479) (1.6362)
3) : , , .
:
: t .
I. H0a: a=0 H1a: a 0
,
H1a:a 0.
t = = t (n-2), (n-2) .
= =-3,5031
5% n-2=8
=2,306
< ð H0a .. , H0, .
II. 0b: b = 0
t = = t (n-2), (n-2) .
= = 1,27
5% n-2=8
=2,306
< ð 0b b , .. , H0, .
H0 : . , 0, H0 .
4) .
49,79 | -10 | -10,21 | 0,2022 | 104,24 | 0,04080 | |||
51,87 | -10 | -8,13 | -1,8797 | 66,09 | 3,5332 | |||
51,87 | -10 | -8,13 | -1,8797 | 66,09 | 3,5332 | |||
51,87 | -10 | -8,13 | -1,8797 | 66,09 | 3,5332 | |||
62,28 | 2,28 | -2,2892 | 5,19 | 5,2404 | ||||
62,28 | 2,28 | -2,2892 | 5,19 | 5,2404 | ||||
62,28 | 2,28 | 7,7108 | 5,19 | 59,4564 | ||||
62,28 | 2,28 | 7,7108 | 5,19 | 59,4564 | ||||
72,69 | 12,69 | -2,6987 | 161,13 | 7,2829 | ||||
72,69 | 12,69 | -2,6987 | 161,03 | 7,2829 | ||||
599,9 | -0,1 | 0,0089 | 645,40 | 154,6 |
|
|
= = * 600 = 60
SS =∑ = 800
SSR =∑ = 645,4
SS =∑ (yi - ŷ i)2 = 154,6
800 ≈ 645,4 + 154,6 ( - ).
SS | MS | F | ||||
645,4 | 645,4 | 33,44 | F(0,05; 1, 8)=5.32 | H0: b≠0 | ||
() | 154,6 | 19,3 | - | - | - | |
() | - | - | - | - |
, . , , . , . .
F = 33.44, F0 =(0,05; 1, 8).
33,44 > 5,32 ð , y, Y.
R2= SSR/SS=0,8067 , 80,67% , 19,32% .
:
= = = ≈ 0,8981
R2=r2=0,806. , , .
5) . , , ,
= 2,0819 , 208,19 .. . , .
= -0,1678 , , , , . .
= * = 2,0819 * 28,9/60 = 1,002. , .
6) . , 40 . :
= - 0,1678 + 2,0819*40 = 83,1082 ..
= 0,95, :
= = = 19.325
83.1082-10,13*0.0393*0,96 < y0 < 83.1082+10,13*0.0393*0,96
82,72 < y0 < 83,49
95 % , 40 . .