() | |||
() | |||
0-4 | |||
5-39 | |||
40 | |||
0-4 | |||
5-39 | |||
40 | |||
(%) | |||
0-4 | |||
5-39 | |||
40 | |||
33,3 | 21,7 | 21,7 |
, .
. . (W. Farr, 1807-1883).
, , , , , .
. (, , ), , , .
, , , .
( ) *. , , , , . , , ( ), .
, , . .
** . , , , . , . , , , , , .
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CMRcmm = CMR0-I , CMRcman - ; CMR0 - .
, . - , .
, , , , . .
* : . , , , . , . , , , , , .
:
1 - ; P1 - , ; 0 - 1 - .
CMRcman - CMR0 - 1, CMRcman - ; CMR0 - .
, .
, , , . . - (, .) , . , . .. .. .
*, , , , ( , ). , , . , , , . :
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fxs - ; Dx - fxs - . , Fxs, , , , . , , :
, - () , .
, , , , , .
, . , , , . , . ( ), ( ) , .
() - , , . , . .
, , 100 36 , , 76 , , 7 6 76 , 6 64, 6 , 1, 76 . , : 100 6 - 36. 10 , , - 24. - 15. - . - 4. - 3. - 2. - 1.
, 100 6 64. 16 - 40; 26 - 25; 36 - 16; 46 - 10; 56 - 6; 66 - 3;
. , .... , 1662. . : Smith D.P. Formal Demography. N. Y., London. 1983. P. 73.
() - , . , ( ). 10, ..10 000, 100 000, 1 000 000 .. 100 000.
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.
( = 1 ) ( = 5 10 ) .
() . , - .
() . , , . (, +) , . . (, + ) .
(. 6.4):
1. (, + 1) .
2. (l). - . -1 (, + 1) , .. lx = lx 1 - dx. , dx = lx*qx, lx=lx 1 - lx 1* *qx 1 = lx 1 *(1 - q x 1)= lx *1Px 1. lx = l0*p0*p1*...*px 1. , , 10 .
3. (, + 1) , qx. qx , , , + 1 . . .
4. (, +1) ,. px , , , + 1 . qx 1,.. = 1 - qx.
5. (, + 1) , dx. . 3-5 qx : dx= lxqx; lx+l = lx - dx x = 1-qx.
6. (, +1) , '. dx, (, +1) , . '. (, + \) . I (.. ), ' 1/2, 4 . .. .
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(, + ) , ( ') . , (.: Chin Long Chiang. The Life Table and Its Construction // Introduction to Stochastic Processes in Biostatistics. N.Y., 1968. PP. 189-214).
7. -, (, + 1) . Lx. ,
6,4
(, +n) | , I* | (, +n) , nqx | (, +n) , nx | (, +n) , ndx | (, +n) , na'x | (, +n) , nLx | -, , T | , x |
6 | 9 | |||||||
0-1 | 100 000 | ndx/ lx | 1 - nqx | lx*nqx | (lx - ndx)+ 'x *ndx | S,,Ln | Tx/lx | |
1-2 | 100000-d0 | .43 | ||||||
2-3 | lx=lx-1-ndx | .45 | ||||||
3-4 | .47 | |||||||
4-5 | .49 | |||||||
5-ö | .50 |
(, + 1 ) , - (/r- dx) . , , Lx ' . : Lx - (lx - dx)'+ '- dx ( = ,1, 2- 1). 5 ' 1/2 , , Lx - .
8. -, , x -, , = Lx.
9. , . , , . ( lx , =Tx/lx, .
x , . , ( qx '), . , . 0 , 0 < e1 - . . .