.
.
Completion of Field Validation for Remote Sensing Analysis in Norilsk
K. Nyland
(The George Washington University
International Permafrost Field Course, 2013
Field Work Report)
This summer (2013) has been my third time participating in this international permafrost field course as an undergraduate representative from The George Washington University. These opportunities to travel into Siberia have afforded me unique insights in to the geocryologic histories and current conditions in both natural and urban environments of the Russian North. And it was the knowledge and connections that I have developed during these summers that have led me to propose the following thesis for my masters degree also to be completed at The George Washington University.
The thesis that I have proposed to do will utilize a multidisciplinary approach to examine the growth and decay of urban centers in the Russian arctic. The development situation in this extreme region of the world is an ongoing challenge further complicated by changing political and economic policies and climate change. The crucial extraction and transportation that centers on this region and continue to pose great potential (e.g. the opening of the Northern Sea Route, and yet untapped mineralogical resources) make the development of the Russian North of national importance and international interest.
This report will go further in depth into the proposal of this work; its background, the hypothesis, objectives, and methods. It will also relate the initial results of field work accomplished during this summers field course. While in the city of Norilsk, ground control points were collected for future analysis with remote sensing.
Russia is unique within the Arctic, in that it contains large urban centers. This stands out from smaller, primarily indigenous communities and extraction outposts typically found elsewhere in the Arctic. The intensive urbanization in the Russian Arctic is a product of former Soviet planned development policies, which promoted migration into the Arctic and labor force consolidation into few sparsely-distributed settlements. In order to support these settlements established in extremely remote and harsh environments, huge government subsidies were required. The Soviet Unions focus on development in the Arctic, regardless of cost or difficulty, has left a problematic legacy for the Russian Federation. As the Soviet political and economic systems fell in the early 1990s, so did the support for vulnerable industries sustaining these Arctic cities. This time of transition and the various processes involved have been particularly difficult for many of the highly subsidized urban communities, resulting in mass migration and a corresponding decline of many Russian Arctic communities. Simultaneously, a small number of urban centers continue to grow due to increased development of natural resource extraction industries and the influx of people migrating from collapsing communities and former Soviet republics as migrant workers.
|
|
|
Socio-economic changes associated with the fall of the Soviet Union have and continue to inflict significant stresses on the natural environment in the vicinity of these urban centers. The Russian Arctic landscape is strewn with crumbling infrastructure surrounding isolated pockets of intensified urban development. Such anthropogenic disturbances alter the surface energy balance and the thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils, characteristic of Arctic environments. While there is considerable research into various aspects of arctic land cover and land use change in the post-Soviet Arctic, little work has been done that emphasizes the role of cities and their related industries in this environmental process. At the same time, the currently existing research on urban development and decay does not address the effects of urban change on the sensitive arctic environment.
The environmental impacts associated with the political, demographic, and economic changes in Russia are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure, the majority of which in the Russian Arctic is built according to the passive principle. However, this principle is dependent on the equilibrium between the thermal regime of permafrost and infrastructure foundations in order to be effective. Therefore, for my Masters thesis at the George Washington Universitys Department of Geography I am evaluating the environmental impact of both urban development and decay in the Russian Arctic under climatic change. I am operating under the hypothesis that socio-economic factors trigger the growth or decay of urban settlements in the Russian Arctic, putting significant stress on the surrounding environment. In the presence of climate change this can potentially intensify permafrost warming and degradation, resulting in the decreased ability of the ground to support infrastructure, which in turn inhabits urban development.
The hypothesis will be evaluated through the following interrelated objectives:
1) Develop a land cover/land use classification suitable for the assessment of changes in development patterns for growing and declining Russian Arctic urban communities;
2) Estimate a temporal rate and aerial extent of land cover/land use change in the vicinity of several Russian urban communities representative of both growth and decline;
3) Assess climatic and land cover/land use changes on the ground thermal regime;
4) Evaluate the impact of climate- and anthropogenic- driven changes in permafrost conditions on the stability of urban infrastructure.
In order to accomplish the above objectives to evaluate the hypothesis the following methodology was developed for one Russian Arctic city in decline from the post-Soviet transition and one Russian Arctic city in a state of growth. The cities of Igarka and Norilsk were obvious choices for this work not only because of their statuses of decay and growth respectively, but also the opportunity for study and field work provided by the International Permafrost Field Course spearheaded by Professors Valery I. Grebenets and Dmirty A. Streletskiy.
|
|
|
The methodology for this thesis consists of four parts 1) the development of a land cover/land use classification, 2) a classification and Assessment of land cover/land use change, 3) an evaluation of permafrost changes, and 4) observation and modeling of the resulting effects on the permafrost system. This methodology is for both the cities of Igarka and Norilsk. The results for each of the two sub-studies of the individual cities will then be used for a comparative analysis.
For the first part of the methodology, Landsat imagery was obtained for a 30 year time series from 1980 to 2010 of the Russian Arctic along with high resolution imagery available for the time period from the Polar Geospatial Center and the cities of Igarka and Norilsk were selected as representative study areas and visited for field validation. This field validation work, conducted during this years field course in Norilsk, will be described in the following sections of this report.
The second part of the methodology, the classification and assessment of land cover/land use change will use a CART (Classification and Regression Tree) approach that will utilize the high resolution data from the Polar Geospatial Center for training, the amount and change in developed area, vegetation, and snow cover will be determined for the Landsat 30 year time series. An accuracy assessment will be performed on the time series classification using the ground validation data collected in the selected representative cities.
The third step to evaluate changes to the permafrost system will use climate data and land cover and land use change trends previously assessed in this methodology. These results will be standardized and incorporated into a previously developed permafrost model. This model will be run for both undisturbed and disturbed conditions observed in the study areas in order to evaluate the degrees of anthropogenic influence on the ground thermal regime.
The fourth and final step, evaluating the effect on infrastructure will use an established methodology for quantitative assessment of current and future ground bearing capacity for Russian construction practices on permafrost as taught in lectures by Professor Streletskiy during the field course. The data will also be applied to this model for a spatial assessment of the changes in permafrost on infrastructure.
This research, having just begun, is still in the first stage of the methodology described, or field validation for the imagery collected. A ground validation point is used to fix remotely sensed images for alignment and to establish what is known as ground truth. The first of these two purposes lines up the images so that they do not move or drift as they are examined over time. The second is for classification uses such as with this methodology where a model will be developed to classify the entire Russian north over 30 years. The model created will make the decisions on how to classify each pixel making up the images and the data collected and reviewed here will confirm what is in fact on the earths surface.
With a time series of Landsat images going back to the year 1980 all of the ground validation points would also need to have been present and unmoving for the entirety of this time span. With these parameters and with the assistance of the professors on the field course I selected building corners at optimal locations to collect coordinates at using a hand-held DeLORME Earthmate PN-60 GPS unit.
The buildings selected were primarily of 1929 German socialist designs. These five story apartment buildings are common in this region due the ease and inexpensive materials that were needed for their construction following World War II. These particular buildings were ideal for ground control point establishment because this particular design was discontinued in 1976 in favor of taller, nine story apartment building designs regarded as being of a higher quality. Therefore, all of the buildings following this design found today in the Norilsk region are more than 33 years old and were also then present for the entirety of the time period of interest. Other buildings used were of Stalinist design and the years of construction were known to be well before 1980. In addition, building corners are ideal as they are easily identifiable in both the medium and low resolution imagery where they will be applied.
|
|
|
Over the last three days of the field course spent in Norilsk and its satellite towns the ground control point data was collected (table 1). Having collected more the typical three to five points used for georeferencing images, this allows for error in the dating of buildings and options for alternate points to use to create a better fit between images. In addition to the flexibility of points that can be used, multiple ways of finding the points were collected. These include the coordinates for the exact location, the address, and a cardinal direction description of the corner of the building where the point data was collected. A photo was also taken at each way point sight to better identify the surrounding area.
| No. | Way Pt. Name | City | Northing | Easting | Building Address / Location Description |
| Hut 264 069 | Norilsk | 69 21 5.16 | 88 12 35.31 | T . 39a (SW Corner) | |
| Hut 264 070 | Norilsk | 69 23 11.8 | 88 21 15.66 | B (SW corner by bear cage) | |
| Hut 264 071 | Talnah | 69 29 2.67 | 88 23 48.93 | 21 . (NE corner) | |
| Hut 264 072 | Talnah | 69 29 13.91 | 88 23 49.09 | 5 . (NE corner) | |
| Hut 264 073 | Norilsk | 69 21 40.53 | 88 10 21.16 | 90 . (NW corner) | |
| Hut 264 074 | Norilsk | 69 21 2.52 | 88 10 22.25 | 27 (SE corner) | |
| Hut 264 074 | Norilsk | 69 20 27.82 | 88 12 18.14 | 50 O . (SW corner) |
Table 1. Norilsk region ground control points data collected from July 24th to July 26th, 2013.
My first participation in this international permafrost field course in 2011, also following the Yenissei River as a transect of permafrost conditions visiting Igarka and Norilsk, provided me with an excellent basis of knowledge of the Russian North in addition to an in depth look into the cities of Igarka and Norilsk. This original experience eventually led to my continued participation in subsequent years and the proposal of this research. My participation this summer has now provided me the means and knowledge needed to effectively collect the ground validation data for Norilsk and the contacts to conduct or obtain the same results for Igarka as well.
The coordinate data collected for the ground control points is one of the key first steps to conducting analyses of remotely sensed images in time series. This field work also provides a basic knowledge and understanding of what the remotely sensed images are in reality on the ground that will be vital to understanding and checking intermediary and final results.
The anticipated final results from this thesis will contribute to developing a system of risk assessment to predict the detrimental impacts of a changing climate and permafrost on Arctic socio-economics, and to minimize the adverse effect of such changes. This work will also provide modeling and cartographic tools for future research on Arctic urban sustainability and could potentially guide urban planning in the Arctic.
