2.1. . .
. 30 .
. , ztr - c , . :
,
,
,
1. ,
rost | ||
ves | ||
maches | ||
goal | ||
, | zp | |
p | ||
y | ||
. | ztr |
2.2. .
(.2).
2.
rost | 181,833 | 182,500 | 168,000 | 192,000 |
ves | 74,5667 | 73,5000 | 62,0000 | 91,0000 |
maches | 29,0333 | 30,0000 | 12,0000 | 38,0000 |
goal | 9,50000 | 8,00000 | 1,00000 | 30,0000 |
zp | 0,900000 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 6,00000 |
p | 2,66667 | 2,00000 | 0,000000 | 8,00000 |
y | 0,133333 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 1,00000 |
ztr | 34,2667 | 33,0000 | 11,0000 | 65,0000 |
. . | ||||
rost | 6,41702 | 0,0352907 | -0,118099 | -0,819713 |
ves | 7,31877 | 0,0981507 | 0,585527 | -0,155245 |
maches | 7,03922 | 0,242453 | -1,20287 | 0,789886 |
goal | 7,23855 | 0,761952 | 1,33659 | 1,29047 |
zp | 1,42272 | 1,58080 | 1,85897 | 3,55193 |
p | 2,13886 | 0,802072 | 0,723255 | -0,436050 |
y | 0,345746 | 2,59309 | 2,15728 | 2,65385 |
ztr | 12,8061 | 0,373718 | 0,444599 | -0,414090 |
. v = 0,88397, , , . , . y = ln x. v(y) = 0,10520, , , . , - (.3)
3. ztr
. | . | . | . | ||||
3,33% | 3,33% * | 3,33% | 53,33% * | ||||
3,33% | 6,67% * | 3,33% | 56,67% * | ||||
3,33% | 10,00% * | 6,67% | 63,33% ** | ||||
6,67% | 16,67% ** | 3,33% | 66,67% * | ||||
3,33% | 20,00% * | 6,67% | 73,33% ** | ||||
6,67% | 26,67% ** | 6,67% | 80,00% ** | ||||
3,33% | 30,00% * | 3,33% | 83,33% * | ||||
3,33% | 33,33% * | 3,33% | 86,67% * | ||||
3,33% | 36,67% * | 3,33% | 90,00% * | ||||
6,67% | 43,33% ** | 3,33% | 93,33% * | ||||
3,33% | 46,67% * | 3,33% | 96,67% * | ||||
3,33% | 50,00% * | 3,33% | 100,00% * |
|
|
:
: ;
: .
1,486, = 0,47579. , , (.1.).
1.
2.3. .
. :
: ρ = 0 -
: ρ ≠ 0 - .
= -0,01748403 , . t- -0,0925309. Rost = 0,9269.
= -0,13264583 , . t- -0,708153. Ves = 0,4847.
= 0,05612943 , . t- 0,297478. Maches = 0,7683.
= 0,44081175 , . t- 2,59866. Goal = 0,0148.
= 0,50684677 , . t- 3,11122. Zp = 0,0043.
= -0,00797327 , . t- -0,0421919. P = 0,9666.
= 0,01505691 , . t- 0,0796827. Y = 0,9371.
(.4).
4.
|
|
rost | ves | maches | goal | zp | p | y | ztr | |
1,0000 | 0,7128 | 0,0803 | 0,0546 | 0,0472 | 0,0812 | 0,1036 | -0,0175 | rost |
1,0000 | -0,1389 | 0,0309 | 0,0686 | -0,0933 | 0,1054 | -0,1326 | ves | |
1,0000 | 0,4619 | 0,2861 | 0,5642 | 0,0548 | 0,0561 | maches | ||
1,0000 | 0,7684 | 0,1782 | -0,1102 | 0,4408 | goal | |||
1,0000 | -0,0227 | -0,0421 | 0,5068 | zp | ||||
1,0000 | 0,0155 | -0,0080 | p | |||||
1,0000 | 0,0151 | y | ||||||
1,0000 | ztr |
.
:
: ;
: .
:
VIF(j) =,
j .
:
VIF (rost) = 1,470
VIF (ves) = 3,938
VIF (maches) = 4,213
VIF (goal) = 1,083
VIF (zp) = 1,139
VIF (p) = 1,199
VIF (y) = 1,738
:
1- = 1,396552*;
= 1,2665015*;
= 7,8934068*.
10.0, .
2.4. .
(.5).
5.
. | t- | P- | |||
Rost | 0,499591 | 0,186315 | 2,681 | 0,0133 | ** |
Ves | -0,673932 | 0,396923 | -1,698 | 0,1030 | |
Maches | -0,531823 | 0,428774 | -1,240 | 0,2274 | |
Goal | 0,449881 | 0,515175 | 0,8733 | 0,3915 | |
Zp | 3,73837 | 2,45049 | 1,526 | 0,1408 | |
P | 0,384298 | 1,25256 | 0,3068 | 0,7607 | |
Y | 3,35079 | 6,36764 | 0,5262 | 0,6038 | |
const | 6,28235 | 69,2512 | 0,09072 | 0,9285 |
. 34,26667 . . . 12,80607
. 3081,486 . 11,57487
R- 0,922928 . R- 0,902822
F(7, 23) 39,34612 - (F) 2,52e-11
. -112,0477 . 238,0954
. 247,9038 . - 241,2332
: ** 20%-
:
= 6,28235 + 0,499591rost -0,673932ves - 0,531823 maches +0,449881 goal + 3,73837+0,384298p + 3,35079
:
: ;
: .
F- 39,34612. , .
5 , :Rost. 20%. = 0,902822 .
, , P- (. 6).
6.
. | t- | P- | |||
P | 7,45131 | 1,41176 | 5,278 | 1,30*10-5 | *** |
Y | 14,2589 | 13,1301 | 1,086 | 0,2868 |
. : | 34,26667 | . . . : | 12,80607 | |
. : | 17620,69 | . : | 25,08606 | |
R-: | 0,559284 | . R-: | 0,543545 | |
F(2, 35): | 17,76652 | - (F): | 0,000010 | |
: = 7,45131P + 14,2589
F- 17,76652. , , 0,000010.
|
|
, P , Y . = 0,543545 .