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:




:

































 

 

 

 





:

,

5

141665

 

: . . -14-02 ..

: . . ., ..

 

 

2016

 

 

1 酅3

2 酅.5

3 ()

() 腅..11

4 . 腅...........16

5 ⅅ..18

6 ⅅ..20

:

10,6; 9,6; 10,9; 11,6; 10,9; 11,7; 10,8; 10,9; 11,7; 10,3; 12,7; 11,9; 11,8; 12,5; 10,5; 11,6; 10,1; 11,3; 10,7; 10,5.

1) :

9,6; 10,1; 10,3; 10,5; 10,5; 10,6; 10,7; 10,8; 10,9; 10,9; 10,9; 11,3; 11,6; 11,6; 11,7; 11,7; 11,8; 11,9; 12,5; 12,7.

2) :

= 11,13. n=20

3) :

;

(9,6-11,13)+(10,1-11,13)+(10,3-11,13)+(10,5-11,13)+(10,5-11,13)+(10,6-11,13)+(10,7-11,13)+(10,8-11,13)+(10,9-11,13)+(10,9-11,13)+(10,9-11,13)+(11,3-11,13)+(11,6-11,13)+(11,6-11,13)+(11,7-11,13)+(11,7-11,13)+(11,8-11,13)+(11,9-11,13)+(12,5-11,13)+(12,7-11,13)=0;

, .

4) (. . .):

) . . . ( ):

= = 0,7987.

) . . . :

= = 0,1786.

5) n :

= = 1,9656; xi = 12,7.

t = f (q; n) = f (10%; 19) = 2,601.

q=1 - p = 1- 0,90=0,10=10% - ;

k=(n-1)=(20-1)=19 .

, ti < t, , .

= = 1,9156; xi = 9,6.

, ti < t, , .

t = f (q; n) = f (10%; 19) = 2,601.

q=1 - p = 1- 0,90=0,10=10% - ;

k=(n-1)=(20-1)=19 .

.

7) :

:

= 0,06426 ∙ 13,26= 0,8521.

.. , :

= 1,72∙0,1786= 0,3071.

tp = f(q; k)= f(10%; 19)= 1,72.

8) . . . ( 0.9):

= ∙ 0,7987= 1,0946.

c2 = f (k; q) = f (19; 95%) =10,117, .. = 3,1807.

.. q = 1 p = 1 - (1 p)/2 = 1 (1-0,9)/2 = 0,95 = 95%.

= ∙ 0,7987= 0,6341.

c2 = f (k; q) = f (19;5%) = 30,144, .. = 5,4903.

.. q = 1 p = 1 - (1 + p)/2 = 1 (1+0,9)/2 = 0,05 = 5%.

9) :

, p = 0,95.

p = 0,9.

, X = 11,13 0,3071, p = 0,95.

0,6341≤ 0,7987≤ 1,0946, p = 0,9.

 

:

1

10,6; 9,6; 10,9; 11,6; 10,9; 11,7; 10,8; 10,9; 11,7; 10,3;12,7; 11,9; 11,8; 12,5; 10,5; 11,6; 10,1; 11,3; 10,7; 10,5.

2

16,26; 16,24; 16,26; 16,38; 16,25; 16,25; 16,27; 16,29; 16,25; 16,17; 16,35; 16,13; 16,15; 15,67; 16,26; 16,25; 16,25; 16,25; 16,22; 16,39

 

:

1 .

X2.

 

1) :

15.67; 16.13; 16.15; 16.17; 16.22; 16.24; 16.25; 16.25; 16.25; 16.25; 16.25;

16.25; 16.26; 16.26; 16.26;16.27; 16.29; 16.35; 16.38; 16.39;

2) :

= 16,227

3)

 

0.033+0.013+0.033+0.153+0.023+0.023+0.043+0.063+0.023-0.057+0.123+0.097-0.077-0.557+0.033+0.023+0.023+0.023-0.007+0.163=0;

 

4) (. . .):

) . . . ( ):

) . . . :

5) n :

;

t = f (q; k) = f (10%; 19) = 2,601, q=1 - p = 1- 0,90=0,10=10%;

k=n-1=20-1=19.

, ti < t, , =16,39; .

= ;

t = f (q; n) = f (10%; 19) = 2,601.

q=1 - p = 1- 0,90=0,10=10% - ;

k=(n-1)=(20-1)=19 .

, ti > t, , =15,67, n=19.

=16,25632;

= ;

= ;

= = 1,7776 xi = ;

t = f (q; k) = f (10%; 18) = 2,577.

k=n-1=19-1=18 .

, ti < t, , ;

= ; =16,13;

t = f (q; n) = f (10%; 18) = 2,577.

q=1 - p = 1- 0,90=0,10=10% - ;

k=(n-1)=(20-1)=18 .

, ti < t, , .

6) :

:

= ∙ 1,033= 0,06996;

.. , :

= 1,73∙0,0752= 0,130096.

tp = f(q; k)= f(10%; 18)= 1,73.

. . . ( 0.9):

= ∙ 0,0752= 0,10411;

c2 = f (k; q) = f (18; 95%) = 9,390, .. = 3,06431;

.. q = 1 p = 1 - (1 p)/2 = 1 (1-0,9)/2 = 0,95 = 95%.

= ∙ 0,0752= 0,05938,

c2 = f (k; q) = f (18; 5%) =28,869, .. = 5,37298,

.. q = 1 p = 1 - (1 + p)/2 = 1 (1+0,9)/2 = 0,05 = 5%.

:

, p = 0,95,

p = 0,9.

, X2 = 16,25632 0,130096, p = 0,95,

0,05938≤ 0,0752≤ 0,10411, p = 0,9.

:

7) , :

= 11,13;

;

;

8) :

b1 = = = =0,00378;

b2 = = = -0,005181;

:

= 0,908.

:

=0,00000049,

.. = = 0,0007.

:

:

.

:

= 2,09 = 0,00146, =2,09. ( k=20);

:

Y=0,04211 0,00146, 0,95.

2.5. ( ) δy.

:

:

a=50 ∆a=1
b=90 ∆b=3
c=60 ∆c=2
d=70 ∆d=2
e=40 ∆e=1

:

:

∆y=0,2525∙0,1006=0,0254;

δy:

δy=





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