.
2.1
,
. | . | Xi * Fi | Xi | (Xi )^2 | (Xi )^2 * Fi | ||||
0,77 - 654,186 | 327,478 | 91,57% | 91,57% | 24888,328 | -123,52 | 15257,68 | 1159584,021 | ||
654,186 - 1307,602 | 980,894 | 3,61% | 95,18% | 2942,682 | 529,89 | 280787,65 | 842362,9537 | ||
1307,602 - 1961,018 | 1634,31 | 1,20% | 96,39% | 1634,31 | 1183,31 | 1400222,56 | 1400222,556 | ||
1961,018 - 2614,434 | 2287,726 | 2,41% | 98,80% | 4575,452 | 1836,73 | 3373562,40 | 6747124,798 | ||
2614,434 - 3267,85 | 2941,142 | 1,20% | 100,00% | 2941,142 | 2490,14 | 6200807,18 | 6200807,18 | ||
- | - | - | 100,00% | 36981,91 | - | - | 16350101,51 |
:
= = = 445,56
, , (. . 2.1, 2.2)
.2.1
,
. 2.2
,
, , (. . 2.3)
.2.3
,
, , . (. . 2.4)
.2.4
,
.
0,77 - 654,186 .., .. . :
xMo ; xMo = 0,77
h ; = 653,416
fMo, fMo-1 fMo+1 , , , , .
fMo,=76; fMo-1 = 0;fMo+1= 3
:
..
, .. (42) . :
,
h , h 653,416
S-1 , = 0
fM ,
, ., .
|
|
, , , 2.1:
%, .
. .
2.2
.
. | . | Xi * Fi | Xi - | (Xi - )^2 | (Xi - )^2 * Fi | ||||
19 - 830,5 | 424,75 | 55,42% | 55,42% | 19538,5 | -540,45 | 292086,20 | 13435965,32 | ||
830,5 - 1642 | 1236,25 | 26,51% | 81,93% | 27197,5 | 271,05 | 73468,10 | 1616298,255 | ||
1642 - 2453,5 | 2047,75 | 13,25% | 95,18% | 22525,25 | 1082,55 | 1171914,50 | 12891059,53 | ||
2453,5 - 3265 | 2859,25 | 4,82% | 100,00% | 1894,05 | 3587425,40 | 14349701,61 | |||
- | - | 100,00% | - | 80698,25 | - | - | 42293024,71 |
:
= = = 972,27
.(. . 2.5 2.6). (. . 2.7 2.8).
. 2.5
. 2.6
. 2.7
. 2.8
19-830,5 ., .. . :
xMo ; xMo = 19
h ; = 811,5
fMo, fMo-1 fMo+1 , , , , .
fMo,=46; fMo-1 = 0;fMo+1= 22
:
, .. (42) . :
,
h , h 811,5
S-1 , = 0
fM ,
, ., .
, , 2.2:
, 73,42%, .
: , .
, .
|
|
. , (. 3.1).
. 3.1
, .
, , : , . , , , , . , , .
, 1 (. . 1.4). ,
:
-, 2;
;
,
, , , .
(. . 1.4) 2:
3.1
/ | - | ||||||
0,77 - 654,19 | 69361,00 | 912,64 | -52,43 | 2748,65 | 208897,27 | ||
654,19 -1307,61 | 4991,00 | 1663,67 | 698,59 | 488041,96 | 1464125,88 | ||
1307,61 -1961,03 | 2152,00 | 2152,00 | 1186,93 | 1408797,39 | 1408797,39 | ||
1961,03 -2614,45 | 2228,00 | 1114,00 | 148,93 | 22179,46 | 44358,93 | ||
2614,45 -3267,87 | 1369,00 | 1369,00 | 403,93 | 163157,60 | 163157,60 | ||
80101,00 | 965,07 | 3289337,06 |
= = = 39630,56697
=
, .
- ( ), - ( ), . 6.1.
3.2
x* | 2 | 2 | ||||
197,24 | 383428,73 | 38902,43 | 853,9922 | |||
115,65 | 67076,42 | 13374,69 | 751,6936 | |||
425,91 | 266193,75 | 181399,33 | 1140,712 | |||
103,30 | 53303,32 | 10671,10 | 736,2112 | |||
126,12 | 63818,24 | 15907,01 | 764,8264 | |||
32,55 | 21221,95 | 1059,44 | 647,4993 | |||
31,26 | 24975,94 | 977,13 | 645,8819 | |||
194,86 | 315095,09 | 37971,98 | 851,0168 | |||
411,66 | 309152,91 | 169459,84 | 1122,839 | |||
75,08 | 137400,06 | 5637,31 | 700,829 | |||
. | 60,10 | 196233,03 | 3612,25 | 682,0464 | ||
.- | 50,52 | 98774,42 | 2552,67 | 670,0371 | ||
19,14 | 2488,72 | 366,49 | 630,6916 | |||
146,30 | 168681,59 | 21403,10 | 790,1227 | |||
38,81 | 32019,90 | 1506,37 | 655,3521 | |||
560,26 | 1130038,37 | 313887,91 | 1309,162 | |||
- | 2,91 | 869,49 | 8,46 | 610,3342 | ||
30,36 | 10716,73 | 921,67 | 644,7534 | |||
11,77 | 7282,54 | 138,42 | 621,4395 | |||
34,64 | 4954,09 | 1200,21 | 650,1261 | |||
- | 19,08 | 3376,81 | 363,97 | 630,6088 | ||
1408,12 | 3030263,48 | 1982787,85 | 2372,243 | |||
109,39 | 130394,07 | 11966,39 | 743,8471 | |||
54,82 | 22092,06 | 3005,12 | 675,4224 | |||
150,15 | 325834,18 | 22546,22 | 794,9575 | |||
2446,40 | 4254296,56 | 5984892,53 | 3674,094 | |||
58,01 | 43045,65 | 3365,51 | 679,4272 | |||
36,88 | 40639,56 | 1359,99 | 652,9272 | |||
214,86 | 224527,66 | 46164,39 | 876,0874 | |||
345,63 | 239865,14 | 119458,02 | 1040,05 | |||
24,30 | 3864,18 | 590,64 | 637,1601 | |||
193,64 | 622346,10 | 37494,90 | 849,4771 | |||
280,56 | 85008,17 | 78711,11 | 958,4598 | |||
. | 176,30 | 3349,64 | 31080,63 | 827,7367 | ||
160,57 | 279709,46 | 25782,08 | 808,015 | |||
37,61 | 17753,34 | 1414,74 | 653,8488 | |||
233,49 | 310779,18 | 54518,98 | 899,4515 | |||
214,18 | 241385,37 | 45874,79 | 875,241 | |||
646,81 | 924936,87 | 418361,88 | 1417,685 | |||
22,42 | 11143,73 | 502,75 | 634,8017 | |||
21,70 | 17748,96 | 470,80 | 633,8939 | |||
321,87 | 500823,50 | 103597,72 | 1010,257 | |||
226,12 | 280836,07 | 51128,45 | 890,2019 | |||
20,75 | 12677,03 | 430,48 | 632,7027 | |||
3,31 | 592,31 | 10,95 | 610,837 | |||
9,86 | 1755,44 | 97,26 | 619,0534 | |||
397,90 | 1236682,52 | 158326,80 | 1105,596 | |||
96,25 | 73149,24 | 9263,87 | 727,3691 | |||
19,53 | 33998,25 | 381,34 | 631,173 | |||
0,77 | 19,99 | 0,59 | 607,6522 | |||
2,21 | 247,52 | 4,88 | 609,459 | |||
105,52 | 39569,63 | 11134,26 | 738,9922 | |||
598,28 | 327859,63 | 357943,74 | 1356,842 | |||
36,62 | 30357,98 | 1341,02 | 652,6037 | |||
32,82 | 15818,76 | 1077,09 | 647,8379 | |||
() | 193,91 | 57977,60 | 37599,15 | 849,8144 | ||
- | 4,43 | 842,08 | 19,64 | 612,245 | ||
268,26 | 537601,06 | 71965,57 | 943,0488 | |||
20,29 | 3287,47 | 411,81 | 632,1322 | |||
96,16 | 36154,66 | 9245,98 | 727,2525 | |||
175,24 | 265135,09 | 30708,36 | 826,4089 | |||
131,79 | 99240,13 | 17369,39 | 771,9357 | |||
288,63 | 390515,04 | 83306,70 | 968,5833 | |||
120,87 | 136700,58 | 14608,83 | 758,2362 | |||
115,82 | 36829,81 | 13413,58 | 751,9043 | |||
1137,51 | 2869932,68 | 1293924,45 | 2032,944 | |||
42,96 | 31233,37 | 1845,73 | 660,5556 | |||
64,24 | 61545,75 | 4127,29 | 687,2399 | |||
85,63 | 77582,59 | 7332,84 | 714,057 | |||
54,19 | 52619,46 | 2936,66 | 674,635 | |||
359,96 | 215977,80 | 129573,36 | 1058,025 | |||
156,21 | 180270,96 | 24402,81 | 802,5558 | |||
3267,85 | 4473682,54 | 10678824,02 | 4704,054 | |||
94,45 | 104083,90 | 8920,80 | 725,1134 | |||
31,33 | 20331,22 | 981,38 | 645,9671 | |||
114,42 | 87299,41 | 13091,02 | 750,1477 | |||
- .- | 2201,04 | 1076306,60 | 4844559,47 | 3366,441 | ||
798,38 | 1865818,73 | 637413,82 | 1607,733 | |||
41,43 | 5758,21 | 1716,11 | 658,6297 | |||
35,64 | 57803,21 | 1270,00 | 651,3712 | |||
. | 25,21 | 932,73 | 635,49 | 638,2961 | ||
- . | 972,07 | 127341,56 | 944925,92 | 1825,515 | ||
77,50 | 52003,84 | 6006,56 | 703,8633 | |||
22173,34 | 29221852,65 | 29228643,87 | 120658009,00 | 78157,00 |
|
|
|
|
a b :
, - , , .
.
3.1
.
:
= 0,242
: , , 83 2010 , .
4.1 2000 2010 .
4.1
.
, . | |
:
: Δ = n yn-1, Δ = yn y0;
: ;
: = 1;
: = ∙ 100%, = ∙ 100%,
n , yn-1 , y0 (2000 ) .
4.2.
4.2
, .. | Δ | ||||||||||
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
-20 | -20 | 0,974 | 0,974 | -0,026 | -0,026 | 97,39% | 97,39% | -2,61% | -2,61% | ||
1,071 | 1,043 | 0,071 | 0,043 | 107,1% | 104,3% | 7,1% | 4,3% | ||||
-35 | -2 | 0,956 | 0,997 | -0,044 | -0,003 | 95,63% | 99,74% | -4,38% | -0,26% | ||
-43 | -45 | 0,944 | 0,941 | -0,056 | -0,059 | 94,38% | 94,13% | -5,62% | -5,87% | ||
-56 | -101 | 0,922 | 0,868 | -0,078 | -0,132 | 92,24% | 86,83% | -7,76% | -13,17% | ||
-10 | -111 | 0,985 | 0,855 | -0,015 | -0,145 | 98,5% | 85,53% | -1,5% | -14,47% | ||
-84 | -195 | 0,872 | 0,746 | -0,128 | -0,254 | 87,2% | 74,58% | -12,8% | -25,42% | ||
-146 | 1,086 | 0,81 | 0,086 | -0,19 | 108,57% | 80,96% | 8,57% | -19,04% | |||
-10 | -156 | 0,984 | 0,797 | -0,016 | -0,203 | 98,39% | 79,66% | -1,61% | -20,34% | ||
-93 | -249 | 0,848 | 0,675 | -0,152 | -0,325 | 84,78% | 67,54% | -15,2% | -32,46% |
, . 2010 ., 93 . . (32,46%).
|
|
.
1. , (n ):
2. . :
3. . , :
, :
= ∙ 100% = 96,15%;
= 1 = - 0,0385;
= ∙ 100% = -3,85%.
, . -3,85%.
. :
, , t , 5, 4, , 4, 5 ( t=0 t ). a b 5.3, .
4.3
, . | |||||
y | t | t2 | yt | ||
-5 | -3835 | 803,09 | |||
-4 | -2988 | 777,84 | |||
-3 | -2400 | 752,58 | |||
-2 | -1530 | 727,33 | |||
-1 | -722 | 702,07 | |||
676,82 | |||||
651,56 | |||||
626,31 | |||||
601,05 | |||||
575,80 | |||||
550,55 | |||||
: | -2778 |
, . . .
(. 4.1)
. 4.1
, - . 5.1
5.1
- | , . | X - | (X - 2 |
.- | 1313,45 | 1725162,84 | |
403,45 | 162775,57 | ||
109,45 | 11980,30 | ||
-16,55 | 273,75 | ||
-30,55 | 933,02 | ||
-93,55 | 8750,75 | ||
-169,55 | 28745,66 | ||
-266,55 | 71046,48 | ||
-288,55 | 83258,48 | ||
-338,55 | 114613,02 | ||
. | -622,55 | 387562,84 | |
: | 2595102,73 |
:
= = 641,55 .
:
- , :
= = 235918,43
136,40
Δ=tμ, t . 0,993 t=3,
Δ=3∙136,40 =409,19 (.)
:
Δ ≤ + Δ;
641,55 409,19 ≤ 641,55+409,19
232,35 ≤ 1050,74.
, , 50%. Δ = 0,5Δ = 204,60 ., , :
:
, 0,993 232,35 1050,74 . 50%, 32 .
6.1 p-, 2008 . ( ) 2009 . ( ). p0 1 - , q0 q1 .
6.1
2008 2009 .
2008 . | 2009 . | |||||||
qo | p0 | p0q0 | p1q0 | q1 | p1 | p1q1 | p0q1 | |
- | 25,07 | 147236,11 | 200269,3 | 34,1 | 171284,3 | 125926,61 | ||
44,74 | 45947,98 | 43852,9 | 42,7 | 44749,6 | 46887,52 | |||
10,3 | 21,63 | 222,789 | 191,58 | 10,2 | 18,6 | 189,72 | 220,626 | |
6910,3 | 91,44 | 193406,88 | 244313,78 | 6081,2 | 95,4 | 216223,62 | 173034,76 |
, .
-:
:
:
, .:
6.2.
6.2
,
- | ||||
1,36 | 0,95 | 0,86 | 1,2323 | |
0,86 | 1,02 | 0,99 | 0,8947 | |
1,16 | 0,97 | 0,85 | 1,118 |
, 2009 . 11,8%, - 16%, 3% 15% .
10,53%, 2%, - 14% 1 % .
23,23%, - 36%, 5% 14 %.
, .
.= = = 1,27
= = 1,25
= = 1,02
, 27%. 25%, 2%.