Twelve of the fifteen EU members joined the Eurozone and adopted the Euro as their only currency from January 1st 2002. Only Great Britain, Denmark and Sweden have not joined. As the Euro has launched successfully, it is only a matter of time before the other three countries join.
Will The Euro be Successful?
The Euro is already in use for non-cash transactions within all the Eurozone countries. Even in the three non-zone countries it is possible to have a bank account in Euros, and this helps many larger businesses to manage their currencies and foreign exchange transactions more efficiently. The Euro is already being used successfully, and has been for a few years. There are still many critics who have pointed to the fall in value of the Euro, but most world currencies fluctuate quite considerably, perhaps alarmingly, and this does not mean they are unsuccessful. The pound sterling for example has fluctuated between about $1.06 and $2.60 in the past few decades. The mighty dollar has fallen to one eighth of its previous value in just over 30 years. We believe that the Euro will work successfully when introduced for cash transactions. Obviously there will be some teething problems and these will be much publicised and ridiculed by the media.
Should Great Britain Join The Euro?
Providing that the Euro does complete its launch successfully, it is difficult to see how the UK can afford to remain outside the Euro economically and politically. It will risk being marginalised in the EU if it fails to join within a few years. At present the public opinion in the UK is against joining the Euro, and for keeping the pound. This is entirely natural and understandable. Almost all change is resisted for various reasons, mainly psychological. Fear of the unknown, laziness in trying to avoid the extra the adaptation will require. Other European countries have overcome their inertia and fear, and it may be asked why Britain should be a special case. The fact that the UK is an island adds to the natural reserve of its inhabitants. The British rarely bother to learn other languages, and cross national borders less frequently than their mainland counterparts. Another reason for greater inertia is that the British have had their own currency for much longer than many other European nations, and been invaded and conquered less frequently and less recently.
When Will Great Britain Join The Euro?
Obviously nobody knows the answer to this, even Gordon Brown probably doesn't know yet. It would also be impossible at this late stage to join at the start, particularly as most Europeans have had Euro bank accounts and invoicing for some years already. We simply could not mint the quantity of coins, or print the number of banknotes required in sufficient time. As we have already missed the start, we may as well stand back and watch. If the Euro launch is a disaster, the UK politicians will be able to appear ultra-smart by having avoided the debacle. Once the Euro is firmly established, many Britons will increasingly be able to see its advantages, and their political opinions will change. Currently about 70% of the UK population are against the Euro, we believe this will drop to under 50% within about 12 months of the Euro's full launch. It may be relatively trivial considerations which alter the public perception, for example when Britons realize that they only need one currency for a European holiday, and that they don't have to lose 5% in foreign exchange charges every holiday, that they can keep their French Euros when they go on a Spanish holiday, they will start to envy the other Europeans who can just use their own money in any other Eurozone country. Another factor will be when the pound suffers its next cyclical downturn, and the British realize that one large currency can be more robust than a large number of minor ones.
December 1st, 2008
