.
(.. ), .
:
1) .
ti | yi |
.
1 = (2+4+3)/3 = 3
2 = (6+5+7)/3 = 6 ..
2)
3 :
1 = (2+4+3)/3 = 3
2 = (4+3+6)/3 = 13/3 ..
1 .
, , . .
3)
, , , .
α (0<α<1).
, 1. :
α, α(1 - α), α(1 - α)2,
:
Qt = α*yt + (1 α)*Qt-1
Qt ( t)
α .
yt , t.
Qt-1 .
α 0.1<α<0.5. α 1, . α = 0.9 .
.
:
yi = f(ti) + εi
f(ti) - ().
εi - . , , , M(εi)=0.
f(t). .
y = at + b :
.
. , .
k=1,3,5,
n . (+1), (1). n - , =2. (-1) (+1). (+2) (-2)
|
|
-2 -1 0 +1 +2
-5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +5
:
, :
.
:
t=0 y=b
t=1 y=b+a ∆=a
t=2 y=b+2a ∆=a
(y=bat ) :
t=0 y=b
t=1 y=ba =a
t=2 y=ba2 =a
:
ln(y)=ln(bat)=t*ln(b) + ln(a)
Y = At + B, Y = ln(y), A = ln(a), B = ln(b)
A B .
.. < 5-7%