Y, ( ), . | X1, , . | 2, | 3, , | |||||||
Audubon | 25 315 | 51,1 | 38 787 | |||||||
Better Homes & Gardens | 198 000 | 34 797 | 22,1 | |||||||
Business Week | 68,1 | 63 667 | ||||||||
Cosmopolitan | 15 452 | 17,3 | 44 237 | |||||||
Elle | 55 540 | 12,5 | 47 211 | |||||||
Entrepreneur | 40 355 | 2 476 | 60,4 | 47 579 | ||||||
Esquire | 71,3 | 44 715 | ||||||||
Family Circle | 147 500 | 24 539 | 13,0 | 38 759 | ||||||
first For Women | 28 059 | 3 856 | 3,6 | 43 850 | ||||||
Forbes | 59 340 | 68,8 | 66 606 | |||||||
Fortune | 3 891 | 68,8 | 58 402 | |||||||
Glamour | 85 080 | 7,8 | ||||||||
Goff Digest | 6 250 | 78,9 | ||||||||
Good Housekeeping | 166 080 | 25 306 | 12,6 | 38 335 | ||||||
Gourmet | 49 640 | 29,6 | 57 060 | |||||||
Harper's Bazaar | 52 805 | 2 621 | 11,5 | 44 992 | ||||||
Inc. | 70 825 | 66,9 | ||||||||
Kiplinger's Personal Finance | 65,1 | 63 876 | ||||||||
Ladies' Home Journal | 127 000 | 6,8 | ||||||||
Life | 63 750 | 14 220 | 46,9 | |||||||
Mademoiselle | 55 910 | 8,0 | ||||||||
Martha Stewart's Living | 93 328 | 4 849 | 16,6 | |||||||
McCalls | 7,6 | 33 823 | ||||||||
Money | 98 250 | 60,6 | ||||||||
Motor Trend | 79 800 | 5 281 | 88,5 | 48 739 | ||||||
National Geographic | 53,0 | 44 326 | ||||||||
Natural History | 45,0 | |||||||||
Newsweek | 148 800 | 20 720 | 53,5 | 53 025 | ||||||
Parents Magazine | 72 820 | 18,2 | ||||||||
PC Computing | 40 675 | 67,0 | 57 916 | |||||||
People | 125 000 | 33 668 | 34,0 | |||||||
Popular Mechanics | 86,9 | |||||||||
Reader's Digest | 42,4 | 38 060 | ||||||||
Redbook | 95 785 | 13 212 | 8,9 | 41 156 | ||||||
Rolling Stone | 78 920 | 8 638 | 59,8 | 43 212 | ||||||
Runner's World | 36 850 | 2 078 | 62,9 | 60 222 | ||||||
Scientific American | 37 500 | 2 704 | 70,0 | |||||||
Seventeen | 71 115 | 5 738 | 17,0 | 37 034 | ||||||
Ski | 32 480 | 2 249 | 64,5 | 58 629 | ||||||
Smart Money | 42 900 | 2 224 | 63,4 | |||||||
Smithsonian | 73 075 | 8 253 | 47,9 | |||||||
Soap Opera Digest | 35 070 | 7 227 | 10,3 | |||||||
Sports Illustrated | 162 000 | 78,8 | 45 897 | |||||||
Sunset | 56 000 | 5 276 | 38,7 | 52 524 | ||||||
Teen | 53 250 | 3 057 | 15,4 | |||||||
The New Yorker | 62 435 | 3 223 | 48,9 | |||||||
Time | 162 000 | 22 798 | 52,4 | |||||||
True Story | 12,2 | |||||||||
TV Guide | 42,8 | 37 396 | ||||||||
U.S. News & World Report | 98 644 | 9 825 | 57,5 | 52 018 | ||||||
Vanity Fair | 67 890 | 4 307 | 27,7 | |||||||
Vogue | 63 900 | 12,9 | 44 242 | |||||||
Woman's Day | 137 000 | 22 747 | 6,7 | |||||||
Working Woman | 87 500 | 6,3 | 44 674 | |||||||
YM | 73 270 | 14,4 | 43 696 | |||||||
83 534 | 39,7 | 47 710 | ||||||||
25,9 | 10 225 | |||||||||
. ? , - . , ( ), , . , , , . , , , , , . . , , .
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. 3 , . () . 1, ( ), 2, , 3, . n = 55.
. 1 . , Excel . Data Analysis ( ) Tools () Regression (). Tools () Data Analysis ( ), , ( , ). Data Analysis ( ), Add-Ins () Analysis ToolPak ( ). , , , Excel.
1. ( Excel)
. R | 0,887 | |||||
R- | 0,787 | |||||
R- | 0,775 | |||||
21577,870 | ||||||
df | SS | MS | F | F | ||
62,843 | 0,000000 | |||||
t- | P- | 95% | 95% | |||
Y- | 4042,799 | 16884,039 | 0,239 | 0,812 | -29853,298 | 37938,895 |
X 1 | 3,788 | 0,281 | 13,484 | 0,000 | 3,224 | 4,352 |
X 2 | -123,634 | 137,849 | -0,897 | 0,374 | -400,377 | 153,108 |
X 3 | 0,903 | 0,370 | 2,442 | 0,018 | 0,161 | 1,645 |
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, , , , b1, b2, b3, .
, , . ( ) :
( ) = + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 =
= $4043 + 3,79( ) 124( ) + 0,903( ).
, = $4 043, : , , , $4043. , , , , , .
, () . , . X- ( ) - . , , - ( - ).
, b1 =3,79, , ( X1 ) ( ) $3,79 . , , $0,00379, .. . , - - , 3548 , , ( ) 3,79 × 3,548 = $13,45 .
, b2 = -124, , ( ) 1% - ( ) $124 . , , -. (.. -$124) , , .
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, b3 = 0,903, , ( ) ( ) $0,903 . , . - - , $4 000 , , 0,903 × 4000 = $3612 ( ) .
, Y X- , - . .
, b3 ; -. , , ( b3 ) -.
, ( -) ? , ( , Y - ), : . ( : -0,167)! ? , , , - , . , .
, , :
Y = + b1X1 + b2X2 +... + bkXk,
, , - , , , - :
( ) = + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 =
= $4043 + 3,79( ) 124( ) + 0,903( ).
, , , , 900000 , 55% , $50000. , (.. , ): X1 = 900 ( ), X2 = 45 ( ) X3 = $50000 ( ). :
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=
= 4043 +3,79( ) 124( ) +0,903( ) =
= 4043 + 3,79 ´ 900 124 ´ 45 + 0,903 ´ 50000 = $47024.
, , $47024, . -, , , , . -, , , . , , , .
, . , Audubon X1 = 1645 ( 1,6 ), X2 = 51,1 (.. 51,1% ) X3 = 38787 ( $38787). :
Audubon =
= 4043 +3,79( ) 124( ) +0,903( ) =
= 4043 + 3,79 ´ 1 645 124 ´ 51,1 + 0,903 ´ 38787 = $38966.
, , : Y( Y).
, , . Audubon $25315, $38966. , 25315 38966 = $13651. , ( Audubon $14000). $14000 ; , , . Audubon ? , , k = 3 , ( ).