, 1968 . . (Edward I. Altaian). (multiple-discriminant analysis, .) .
Z- 66 , 19461965 ., . 22 , . .
:
Z - 1,244 + 1,4 + 3, + 0,6D + 0,999E,
, , , D, E , :
= (Working Capital)/ (Total Assets)
= (Retained Earnings) / (Total Assets)
= (EBIT) / (Total Assets)
D= (Market Value of Equity), / (Book Value of Total Debt)
E= (Sales)/ (Total Assets)
Z 2,675.
: Z<1,81 , Z> 2,67 ,
( 1983 .) , . :
Z = 0,717 + 0,84 + 3,107 + 0,42D + 0,995,
D
.
Z< 1,23 .
, , i , i > ( ). , . , , , , . , - , , , .. , , , , .
:
;
.
:
, ( ) /;
|
|
, , , .
, , , , .
: , -, , .
: , . , .
1978 . . (Gordon L.V. Springate). 19 , -.
, , , ., . 1968 . - . , 22 , , . Z- . , :
Z = 0,717 X1 + 0,843 2 + 3,107 3 + 0,42 4 + 0,995 5,
X1 , %;
2 , %;
X3 , %;
4 ( ) , %;
5 - () , %.
.
Z- | |
1,8 | |
1,81-2,70 | |
2,71-2,99 | |
3,00 |
:
Z= 1,03 + 3,07 + 0,66 + 0,4D
, , , D , :
= (Working Capital) / (Total Assets)
= (EBIT) / (Total Assets)
= (Profit before Taxes)/ (Current Liabilities)
D= (Sales)/ (Total Assets)
Z 0,862.
92,5% 40 , .
Du Pont () (Ra) (), () ().
|
|
Rc= Ra*M = Rpn*Koa*M = (/)*(/)*(/)
Rpn ;
; - ;
- ();
.
, .