()
8.
, . , , , . , , [8].
, , , , . , [9]. , . , , .
(, ) . , . .
, . , , .. , . , [10].
. , , , . .
() , , . () . . .
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. , , . , +2 . , +1 . , . , . , , .
. - [11] , . , .
G=G(t), t=(t 0, t 1, t 2,, t +1), pijPi (tj); i, j (0,1,2,, +1), pij - i - j -, Pi (tj) - i - tj. (+1)- , , , .
, . , . G . G , ..
, (8.1)
I - .
(0, +1) .
[12],
Y (t) = Q (t) / R (t), (8.2)
Q (t) ( +1, 0) (I - G (t)), R (t) - .
.
. P . i - t i. t i, ti - i - , . , , . . , , [7].
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, i - :
Pi (ti, ti) = exp[-l iti exp(-n iti)], (8.3)
l i n i ; ti t i .
l i = 1/ Ti, Ti ;n i = Ki / (NiTi), Ki () , Ni - .
, P(t,t) ³ P, , (8.3). , [13]. :
, (8.4)
g - .
(18) t i g , :
(8.5)
(8.5) : .
,
. (8.6)
(8.6) t i g, , :
(8.7)
(8.7), ti, P (t,t), .
.
1. , .2.
2
Ki =1, t 1=1 c, t 2 =7 c, t 3=10 c, N 1=10, N 2=5, N 3=3, =0,01 1/c, =0,02 1/c, =0,03 1/c, p 12=0,7, p 13=0,3, p 23=0,6, p 24=0,4, p 31=0,8, p 34=0,2. Pi (ti,i) (17), =3. G I-G :
G = ;
(I - G) = .
(I - G) (0,4) (16) Y = Q / R, Q (4,0) (I - G), R - (I - G). , :
Y = P(t, )= . (8.8)
(8.8) ti t i . , t i =0, P (t,0)=0,563.
2. P ³ 0,999. . , . , :
t1= 3460 ; t2= 1871 ; t3= 848; t= 6179 .
3. t=6000 . t i .1 . :
t1= 3327; t2= 1838; t3= 835; max P (t,t)=0,999.
, .
, , . Ki .
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, .