rd = *(1 ), (17)
; .
.
.
1 . DCF . : S&P, Moodys Fitch. . RD ( ) .
, DCF 30 12 .
2 . .
DCF
6 DCF ()
() | -12 |
(.) | |
2011 , $ | 15,21 |
1) () 18:
, (18)
FCFt ; r (WACC); t - ( 0, 1, 2, 3,4,5); .
2) TV (Terminal Value)
TV: , ( ), .
( ) , g ( , g = 3,5%).
, . . , .
TV ( ) (19):
TV = FCF (t +1) / (r g), (19)
V ( );
FCF (t+1) () ; r (WACC); g .
|
|
() FCF (t+1) ( 2017 , 7) :
FCF (t+1) = FCFt*(1 +g), (20)
FCFt ( 2016 ).
:
TV = FCFt*(1 +g) / (r g) (21)
7 , . $ ()
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 .. | |
(%) | - | ||||||
EBITDA | |||||||
(%) | |||||||
EBIT | |||||||
(%) | |||||||
NOPAT | |||||||
+ | |||||||
- . | -181 | -184 | -190 | -121 | -129 | -137 | |
/ | -52 | -90 | -47 | -51 | -44 | -13 | |
3) , .
dTV 22:
dTV = TV / (1 + WACC)n , (22)
n ( n =6).
4) = + (23)
5) () 24.
= (23)
.
6) = (24)
7) 2011 . = / (25)