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ВАРИАНТ 11.
1. Прочитайте и переведите текст:
Step 5: Make a Choice
In the vast majority of decisions we may encounter, the objectives and outcomes are directly quantifiable. Thus, the private firm, such as the steelmaker, can compute the profit results of alternative price and output plans. Analogously, a government decision maker may know the computed net benefits (benefits minus costs) of different program options. Given enough time, the decision maker could determine a preferred course of action by enumeration, that is, testing a number of alternatives and selecting the one that best meets the objective. This is fine for decisions involving a small number of choices, but it is impractical for more complex problems.
For instance, what if the steel firm drew up a list of two dozen different pricing and production plans, computed the profits of each, and settled on the best of the lot? How could management be sure this choice is truly «optimal,» that is, the best of all possible plans? What if a more profitable plan, say, the twenty-fifth candidate, was overlooked? Expanding the enumerated list could reduce this risk, but at considerable cost.
Fortunately, the decision maker need not rely on the painstaking method of enumeration to solve such problems. A variety of methods can identify and cut directly to the best or optimal decision. These methods rely to varying extents on marginal analysis, linear programming, decision trees, and benefit-cost analysis. These approaches are important not only for computing optimal decisions but for checking why they are optimal.
Step 6: Perform Sensitivity Analysis In tackling and solving a decision problem, it is important to understand and be able to explain to others the «why» of your decision. The solution, after all, did not come out of thin air. It depended on your stated objectives, the way you structured the problem (including the set of options you considered), and your method of predicting outcomes. Thus, sensitivity analysis considers how an optimal decision would change if key economic facts or conditions were altered.
Here is a simple example of the use of sensitivity analysis. Senior management of a consumer products firm is conducting a third-year review of one of its new products. Two of the firm's business economists have prepared an extensive report that projects significant profits from the product over the next two years. These profit estimates suggest a clear course of action: continue marketing the product. As a member of senior management, would you accept this recommendation uncritically? Probably not. You naturally would want to determine what is behind the profit projection. After all, you may be well aware that the product has not yet earned a profit in its first two years. (Although it sold reasonably well, it also had high advertising and promotion costs and a low introductory price.) What is behind the new profit projection? Larger sales and/or a higher price? A significant cost reduction? The process of tracking down the basic determinants of profit is one aspect of sensitivity analysis.
As one would expect, the product's future revenues and costs may be highly uncertain. As a consequence, management should recognize that the revenue and cost projections come with a significant margin of error attached.
It is natural to investigate the profit effects if outcomes differ from the report's forecasts. What if sales are 12 percent lower than expected? What if projected cost reductions are not realized? What if the price of a competing product is slashed? By answering these «what-if» questions, management can determine the degree to which its profit projections, and therefore its marketing decision, are sensitive to the uncertain outcomes of key economic variables.
Sensitivity analysis is useful in:
(1) providing insight into the key features of the problem that affect the decision;
(2) tracing the effects of changes in variables about which the manager may be uncertain; and
(3) generating solutions in cases of recurring decisions under slightly modified conditions.
After all analysis is done, what is the preferred course of action? For obvious reasons, this step (along with step 4) occupies the lion's share of the analysis and discussion. Once the decision maker has put the problem in context, formalized the objectives, and identified available alternatives, how does he or she go about finding a preferred course of action?
What features of the problem determine the optimal choice of action? How does the optimal decision change if conditions in the problem are altered? Is the choice sensitive to key economic variables about which the decision maker is uncertain?
2. Переведите на русский язык следующие английские словосочетания:
1. net benefits;
2. sensitivity analysis;
3. basic determinants of profit;
4. the objectives and outcomes;
5. to meet the objective;
6. the painstaking method;
7. the method of predicting outcomes;
8. to earn a profit;
9. a significant margin of error;
10. a competing product is slashed.
3. Найдите в тексте английские эквиваленты следующих словосочетаний:
1. блокировать, справиться,
2. оптимальное решение,
3. не «берутся с потолка»,
4. развернутый доклад,
5. львиная доля,
6. быть неопределенным,
7. сократить риск,
8. значительное уменьшение цены (стоимости),
9. доходные статьи продукта,
10. ключевые особенности.
4. Найдите в тексте слова, имеющие общий корень с данными словами. Определите, к какой части речи они относятся, и переведите их на русский язык:
1. object;
2. practice;
3. to manage;
4. to vary;
5. to decide;
6. to mark;
7. significance;
8. to alter;
9. sense;
10. to compete.
5. Задайте к предложению все типы вопросов: общий, альтернативный, разделительный, специальный, вопрос к подлежащему. Thus, the private firm, such as the steelmaker, can compute the profit results of alternative price and output plans.
6. Выполните анализ данных предложений, обратив внимание на следующие грамматические явления: причастие, инфинитив, герундий и их обороты.
1. Thus, the private firm, such as the steelmaker, can compute the profit results
of alternative price and output plans.
Given enough time, the decision maker could determine a preferred course of action by enumeration, that is, testing a number of alternatives and selecting the one that best meets the objective.
Expanding the enumerated list could reduce this risk, but at considerable
cost.
Two of the firm's business economists have prepared an extensive report that projects significant profits from the product over the next two years.
A variety of methods can identify and cut directly to the best or optimal decision.
7. Ответьте на вопросы по тексту:
1. How could the decision maker determine a referred course of action?
2. What do the methods rely on?
3. What are the aspects of sensitivity analysis?
4. Under what circumstances can a private firm compute the profit results?
5. What is impractical for solving complex problems?
6. What are the methods of identifying the problems?
7. What is important in understanding and explaining the problem?
8. What is sensitivity analysis?
9. How do the projections of revenue and costs come?
10. When is sensitivity analysis useful?
