II
()
:
8
: -312
..
: ..
2016
:
充...2
1. 腅..4
2. 酅14
3. ...34
4. ⅅ.38
充.....44
....45
, . , . , , . , , .
, , - , , , . , , , , , . , , - .
, , , ; ; , , .
|
|
, , , , - . , - . , , , , . , .
. , .
, - .
, . n , n . t.
, t. . , , .
1.1 . .
. - . , , .
, , . , . , r().
|
|
r() , . :
1) r() τ > 0 .
2) τ. .
3) , , .
, . , . , , :
1) , 2) .
- . - .
ARIMA . ARIMA - . , - . ARIMA . ARIMA - . p q. .
ARIMA p.
(t=1,2,,n),
- , -
q.
(t=1,2,,n),
- , - .
p q : 1) (p), () , 2) (p), ,
3) (q) I, , 4) (q), 1 2 .
. , . , . , , . . .
. , , . t
|
|
,
t; - (t -1); - t; - t - .
. :
,
- .
. , . :
1) , , , ;
2) ;
3) - , .. , ;
4) ;
5) , , t, .. , .
k. n, .. k < n. - . , .. (i =1,2,, n-k+1) . :
(t = 2,3., n -1).
, , , ..
,
, , . , .
1.3
, - , , . , .
(). . , , : , . . t,
.
, . , , , , , .
|
|
1.1
Y | 141,780 | 140,250 | 139,740 | 140,250 | 139,740 | 139,740 | 125,460 | 121,890 | 120,870 | 119,850 |
Y | 118,636 | 114,912 | 112,784 | 106,400 | 106,400 | 104,804 | 98,420 | 96,292 | 89,908 | 88,844 |
Microsoft Excel , , , . (.1.1). ( 1.2).
. 1.1.
1.2
σ | |||
y = -19,44ln(x) + 159,49 | 0,7864 | 8,23 |
σ. :
σ = ;
, n .
, , ( ).
, :
y 21 = -19,44ln(21) + 159,49 = 100,3044838; |
y 22 = -19,44ln(22) + 159,49 = 99,40013471. |
:
;
σ. :
σ = ;
, n .
1) (x-̄x)²= (141,780-(-19,44ln(1) + 159,49)^2= 313,6441
2) (x-̄x)²= (140,250-(-19,44ln(2) + 159,49))^2=33,23774793
3) (x-̄x)²= (139,740-(-19,44ln(3) + 159,49))^2= 2,582522574
4) (x-̄x)²= (140,250-(-19,44ln(4) + 159,49))^2=59,43735209
5) (x-̄x)²= (139,740-(-19,44ln(5) + 159,49))^2= 133,1132836
6) (x-̄x)²= (139,740-(-19,44ln(6) + 159,49))^2=227,4608144
7) (x-̄x)²= (125,460-(-19,44ln(7) + 159,49))^2= 14,42855133
8) (x-̄x)²= (121,890-(-19,44ln(8) + 159,49))^2=7,976916603
9) (x-̄x)²= (120,870-(-19,44ln(9) + 159,49))^2=16,76121088
10) (x-̄x)²= (119,850-(-19,44ln(10) + 159,49))^2=26,23748817
11) (x-̄x)²= (118,636-(-19,44ln(11) + 159,49))^2= 33,19009004
12) (x-̄x)²= (114,912-(-19,44ln(12) + 159,49))^2=13,90234813
13) (x-̄x)²= (112,784-(-19,44ln(13) + 159,49))^2= 9,964221472
14) (x-̄x)²= (106,400-(-19,44ln(14) + 159,49))^2=3,192388056
15) (x-̄x)²= (106,400-(-19,44ln(15) + 159,49))^2=0,198473895
16) (x-̄x)²= (104,804-(-19,44ln(16) + 159,49))^2= 0,619172643
17) (x-̄x)²= (98,420-(-19,44ln(17) + 159,49))^2=35,90804989
18) (x-̄x)²= (96,292-(-19,44ln(18) + 159,49))^2=49,12850652
19) (x-̄x)²= (89,908-(-19,44ln(19) + 159,49))^2= 152,3275866
20) (x-̄x)²= (88,844-(-19,44ln(20) + 159,49))^2=153,9824025
:
σ = =
:
;
(1-10)^2+(2-10)^2+(3-10)^2++(20-10)^2=570
.
:
y 21 = 100,3044838 9,526; |
y 22 = 99,40013471 9,403. |