. 1. .
. 7
. 2. .
. 3. .
, [44]. , , , - . .
. 2 2. , . 2, , , , . , , . . , , , , : . , . 2 . , , , .
. , , . 2 2 , , . 2. , . , , : " . 3?" . - - , , - , [4, 23]. : , . 2 - (map) . , " ?" . , , , , . , 1 , (natural assessments) [119]. [56] . , , , , : , (causal propensity), , .
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"" "". [9, 126], (, [75]) , "" ( ) "" ( ) . [9] . - (, ) (, ), -
. 8
. , , . , - . , , - , . (), , , . , . ( 1) (attitudes) (preferences), [31, 62, 107, 126].
. , 1: , . - , , , . - , , , . , , , . , , , . . -, , .
, , , , : . 2, . 2, . (physical salience) : , "" . , : .
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/ . , " " " " , , . . , , , [34].
, . , , , . "" , , [30, 80, 81]. [95]. , ( ), , .
. 4. .
. 9
. 5. .
. 4 ( [16]) . - . : ( ) .
, . 4, - . , . , . "" , . , . 2, - . , [69], , (, ), , .
- . : , . , - ; . , . , , , . .
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III. :
, . (reference-dependent): , . , .
. 20, , , . . 5. , . , - , . - ( ), .
, , , , . . , [13]. , . - , , -
. 10
; [39]. , . , , , , 300 . - ; " ".
, [65]. 1 2, , .
1
,
50% $150 50% $100?
, $100?
. , , , (., [121]). , , . 2:
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2
:
$100 50% $50 50% $200?
, $100
2 , . , [65]. , $100 , .
, . , , , , (reference point), . , , .. , . , , , . , - - -.
, . 6. , , : (1) , ; (2) , ; (3) , (loss-averse) - 2 - 2.5 , [62, 122].
,
. 6. .
. 11
? , , - , [54]. 3:
3
:
, 4 . 3 .
, 1 . 1.1 .
?
?
3 , , , . 3, . , , , , [52, 53, 85].
? , , . , . .
. , , , . ; . , - - , , , ( , ) [51, 52, 67].
( ) . , , (endowment) , [59]. (indifference maps). , , , , - . , , , , 5.
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, , , , [111] . , , , , (endowment effect): , , ( ). , , , [59, 60, 121].
- () , , , , [59]. , , , - . , , , , -
5 , . . (. .)
. 12
. [77, 78] , . ( ) ( , , ), , , .
. , , , , . "" [24] [58]. - (status-quo bias) [97]. , -, , , . [66].
IV. (FRAMING EFFECTS)
- (. . 2) - - , . : , , , . .
, ; (extensionality) [6] [120]. , .
[118] :
, , 600 . . , :
A , 200 .
B , 1/3 600 , 2/3 - .
, . , , , :
A1, 400 .
B1, 1/3 2/3 - 600 .
. , , . , , ( 100% ), [65]. , , . , , , , A B B2 A1. . 2 2, .
[98] , . , -
. 13
, . , . , , . , , . . , ? , . , , . : , . , .
, A B , . , , . [49] . - , , - - . , - -, 79 30% , . [48] , 450 , , , -.
[48] , , , , . , 97.4% 18% . , . , , - 401 (k), - [22, 84].
. , . , , . , "137 x 24" "3288" "" . .
[120]. , , , . , , , - .
, , , : . : " " (narrow framing) [61, 90, 112, 113] , /, , , " ". , , " ", , , .
" " ,
. 14
. 2. . 2 . 2. , "" . 2, . 2. " " , . , , , . , , , , .
V. :
, , , . : " , . , , " [117, . 1124]. - (representativeness), (availability) (anchoring), - , , (neglect of base-rate information), , . . , , .
[56] , (attribute substitution). " , , () , " [56, . 53]. , .
: " , . 7?" , , . , , - . . ( ) , , . . - , ( ), .
. [] . : " ?" " ?". 0.12, . , -
. 15
. 8. .
, , 0.66. 6 . , , . , , . , , , , , , - , . 7. [64] . . - (base-rate group), - (similarity group), - (probability group). 7. 20% 3% .
.
. , . , , . , , . . , . , , , .
, . " " ( ). . , , : - 0.62. , . . . , . , , . .
. , , , , , . , .
: . - , . , (). , - - .
. 8. , (0.98). -0.63. -
6 0.66 - .
7 : , , , , , , , , .
. 16
. (bias), (base-rate neglect) . , . .
. 8 , , , . : N 6 (" - ") N 8 (" - "). (, " ", " "). ., ; .
- 31 , . , . . , .
, 85% N 8 , , , -, . . , 89% N 8 , . (conjunction fallacy) [119].
, , [6, 28, 43, 73]. , [26, 89, 101, 102]. , . , , . (/, / , /) , , , . (., , [107]) (affect heuristic). , ( ) , , . , " ", . [82] , .
, , , , . , . [33] , , . , , . , , . . [67] . (, , ) . , -, .
. [67] , (), . , . , , , . , 1 2. , -
. 17
, .
VI.
. 8 , . () . - , - , - .
. 3, , - . . : , (, ), , , [88, 93]. . . 8. , - ? .
, , :
(1) (, , );
(2) (, );
(3) (, );
(4) (, , , ).
, . , (extensional attributes), (conditional adding), , . : . 3 . , , ( ). - (averages), .
, , , . () ( ) . , :
(1) (violations of monotonicity). , . , , - , .
(2) (extension neglect). , , -
8 .
9 (, ), " " (extensive structure [83, . 3]). , , " " (positive concatenation structure) [83, . 19, . 38]).
. 18
. .
.
.
- . , .
(neglect of scope). , " ". , . [27]. 10. . , $80, $78 $88, 2.000, 20.000 200.000 . , -, , , , , , [62].
[35] . , , , , ( [58]). , (., , [19]). , , , [29, 62].
. [77] , , [46] . " / ", , " ". . [3] ( ) , , ( ), ( ). , . , . $4.05 $1.82 . , $2.89 $3.32.
. [3] , 1, , , 2 , . [77] . , .
.
, , [51 - 53, 67]:
. 9. .
10 , . (. .)
. 19
. , , . , , .
(duration neglect). , [91], , , 60 (. . 9) . ( 4 66 ), 0.03. , (r = 0.67) , , , , . , A (. . 9), , B. "/" ([36]; . [52]). , ( ) .
(violence of dominance). . , : , . , , . , [92].
. . [61] , : "" ( 14 60 ) "" ( 30 , 15). , , . "/", . [99]. , , , " ".
, [51]. , , (, ). , , , , [67].
.
, , , . [25, 71], [72], [5]. , , . , ( [56]), , . , . , , [56]. , , , 1.000 , , - [119].
, . , , , ( ), ? ,
. 20
, , , - . . , , , (the dimensionality of individual instances), .
VII.
, , , , , , 2, , 1. 2. [55, 56]. , , [69]. , , : , 2 . 2 , . : ? , , .
, [33], [40 - 42], "" "" [15] , , [14, 47]. 2, , [109], , " " [100], [1, 2, 86].
, , , (.: [55, 56]). - - [45].
, , , - ; . . , , . , . , , . 2. , : " ", , " ", .
[65]. "" : , . 11.
, : , . , , [120] , : (1) ; (2) , , ; (3) ,