, , .. AD = AS |
" − " | " − " |
" − ": S Tn M : In G X | Y = AE Y = AE = C + In AE , .. AE = AD ( ), .. Y = AS |
→S+Tn+M=In +G+X← | : Y = C + S Y = C + I C + S = C + I |
S = In | S = In |
I = S. - . | |
1. Y = AE (AS = AD) : Y = Y*, u = u*. 2. AD≠ AS − − P,W, R − , . 3. : I = I(R) S=S(R) → I(R) = S(R) . . | 1. AD = AS : A AD =AS, Y0 ≠ Y*(Y0<Y*) 2. (P,W, R) AD, : , . . AD ( " "), , .. 3. , .. : I (R) ≠ S(Y) ≠ − − .. I = S . |
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" − " | |
AE = C + In | |
1) (P − const) 2) = 0 3) = = Yd + Tn | |
(AE = AD) | , |
(Y = AS) | + |
, AE = C + In, C = a + bY, In Y = AE ( 45) . E : Y (AS) = AE (AD). " ". |
AE1 > Y1 , : AE2 < Y2 , : |
Y1 < Y0 → AE1 (AD) > Y1 (AS) → ↓ → ↑Y, ↑ L → Y0: Y = AE Y2 > Y0 → AE2 (AD) < Y2 (AS) → ↑ → ↓Y, ↓ L (AS = AD) |
, , . |
, | |
∆ Y 1 MULTA = ------ = -------- ∆A 1 − b | |
− b, MULTA; − b, MULTA |
. |
. (1905 −1995) 1931 ., . " , " (1936). . , . , , , , .. . |
. . − , " " − . . , , , − , " ". |
1) (6−10 − 2 ); 2) , Y0 < Y*; 3) , ; 4) , ( AE), AD; 5) , , ό . (), , . |
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, | |
It = f(∆Y) γ = ∆I / ∆Y γ = 1/ mult | |
AD, : It = γ (Yt−1 − Yt−2) t − (t − 1), (t − 2) − γ − , MPI |
1) , ; 2) ; 3) 2 : − − − ; 4) I II . |
1. → 2. → 3. → 4. → 5. . . |
(. − .) | , | |
Yt = bYt−1 + γ(Yt−1 − Yt−2) + A | ||
Yt − bYt−1 − C γ(Yt−1 − Yt−2) − A − (C + I) | ||
, "" ( Y*). − AS. , "" ( ). − AD, . | ||
MULT = ------------------------- 1 − (MPC + MPI) MPC = b MPI = γ | ||
: , | |
, | |
, , . (MPS > MPC) ( ), AD. , , , . , , . → ↓Y → ↓I → ↑S, ↓C (∆C×multC) → ↓AD → ↓Y,↓L →↓Yd → ↓S, ↓I |
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" " ( ) |
S0 S1. ∆I ∆Y. |
, : AE, ( ) − AD , : ↑S→ ↓C (∆C×multC), ↓AE →↓Y,↓L → ↓AD → ↓ P " " , AD − AS . |
( ) |
.. ( ). ( ). I = S Y0 Y*, () . − AE (AD). |
, AE (Y0 > Y*) | ||
AE . AD A B AE: ∆Y = − .. × multA | ||
− - (↓ G ↑ T); − - (↓ MS) | ||
( ) | , AE (Y0 < Y*) | |
, , . . AD, AE: ∆Y = .. × multA | ||
− - (↑ G ↓ T); − - (↑ MS) | ||
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4. " − "
, . ,
.
1) ; 2) ( ) | |
AD AE | ∆Y 1 multg = ----- = ------- ∆G 1 − b |
, | ∆Y − b multt = ----- = ------- ∆T 1 − b |
multA = -------------- 1 − b(1 − t) | |
multA = ---------------------- 1 − b(1 − t) − MPI(Y) |
, , (MPM = ∆M/∆Y) | |
AE ( I G) | multXn = ------------------------- 1 − (MPC − MPM) |
multA = -------------------------------- 1− b(1−t)−MPI(Y) +MPM(Y) | |
A Y = ----------------------------------------- 1− b(1−t)−MPI(Y) +MPM(Y) A − | |
" − " , AE = C + Ig + G + Xn |
∆ Y 1 MULTA = = ∆A 1 − b | |
MULT = 1 − (MPC + MPI) | |
It = f(∆Y): γ = ∆I / ∆Y γ = 1/ mult | It = γ (Yt−1 − Yt−2) t − (t − 1), (t − 2) − γ − , MPI |
Yt = bYt−1 + γ(Yt−1 − Yt−2) + A | Yt − bYt−1 − C γ(Yt−1 − Yt−2) − A − (C + I) |
() | ∆Y 1 multg = = ∆G 1 − b |
() | ∆Y − b multt = = ∆T 1 − b |
mult A = 1 − b(1 − t) | |
mult A = 1 − b(1 − t) − MPI(Y) | |
multXn = 1 − (MPC − MPM) MPM = Δ M/ ΔY − | |
multA = 1− b(1−t)−MPI(Y) +MPM(Y) | |
A Y = 1− b(1−t)−MPI(Y) +MPM(Y) A − |
, .
, .
, , , .