. " " (. 28).
" " " ".
, .
. 28. .
:
1.
: .
, , . . , . - , , ( , , ..).
, , , , , , , .
:
.
. , , .
, . , , Investments CF.
2.
, , , . , ,
, . . .
, .
|
|
3.
. . , .
, . .
. - .
4. , PB (Payback period)
, PB (Payback period) - , , . :
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t.
: .
5.
, DPB (Discounted payback period) PB, , . :
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t,
r - .
, , .
6.
, ARR (Average rate of return) . :
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t,
N - .
ARR , .
7. , NPV (Net present value)
, NPV (Net present value) :
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t,
N - ,
r - .
NPV . : .
8. , PI (Profitability index)
, PI (Profitability index) :
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t,
N - ,
r - .
PI . . : 1.
9. , IRR (Internal rate of return)
, IRR (Internal rate of return) :
|
|
:
Investments - ,
CFt - t,
N - ,
IRR - .
, IRR , .
10.
, MIRR (Modified internal rate of return) .
, TV (Terminal value) - , , . R, , , .
:
R - (),
N - ( ),
CFt - t.
, :
:
COt - t,
r - (),
N - .
, MIRR, , , r, ( ). R, ( ). , , ( ).
, MS Excel. 1.
, , 29 30.
. 29. .
. 30. .
. , , " " , , .
. .
. , .
, .
, , , :
1. ( ) ;
2. ;
3. .
Project Expert, MS Excel.
|
|
4.1.1 ( -10% +40%, )
10 ( ). 31, 33, 35 37 , Project Expert. 32, 34, 36 38 , .
10. ( )
∆IC | -10% | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% |
NPV, . | 372 639 | 320 773 | 268 907 | 217 041 | 165 175 | 113 310 | 60 929 | 7 925 | 45 078 | 9 8082 | 15 1086 |
IRR, % | 204.00 | 156.90 | 120.70 | 92.17 | 69.28 | 50.60 | 35.01 | 21.80 | 10.59 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
PI | 1.61 | 1.48 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.2 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.87 |
DPB, . |
. 31. NPV IC.
. 32. NPV
, 25,5% NPV = 0. , ( NPV) .
. 33. IRR IC.
. 34. IRR
, 25.5% IRR . , ( IRR) .
. 35. PI IC.
. 36. PI
, 25.5% PI 1. , ( PI) .
. 37. DPB IC.
. 38. DPB
, 25,5% - 12 .
4.1.2 ( -10% +20%, )
11 . 39, 41, 43 45 , Project Expert. 40, 42, 44 46 , .
11.
∆ | -10% | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% |
NPV, . | 707 942.03 | 489 085.90 | 268 907.45 | 2 441.43 | -268 061.34 | -538 564.11 | -809 066.88 |
IRR, % | 432.40% | 250.20% | 120.70% | 20.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
PI | 1.98 | 1.68 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
DPB, . |
. 39. NPV .
. 40. NPV
, 5% NPV =0. , ( NPV) .
|
|
. 41. IRR .
. 42. IRR
, 5% IRR . , ( IRR) .
. 43. PI .
. 44. PI
, 5% PI 1. , ( PI) .
. 45. DPB .
. 46. DPB
, 5% - 12 .
4.1.3 ( -15% +15%, )
12 . 47, 49, 51 53 , Project Expert. 48, 50, 52 54 , .
12.
∆ | -15% | -10% | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
NPV, . | -1 389 272.85 | -835 200.50 | -281 128.15 | 268 907.45 | 727 771.66 | 1 184 414.66 | 1 640 635.17 |
IRR, % | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 120.70% | 464.40% | 1190.00% | 2676.00% |
PI | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 1.37 | 2.03 | 2.72 | 3.44 |
DPB, . |
. 47. NPV .
. 48. NPV
, 2.5% NPV 0. , ( NPV) .
. 49. IRR .
. 50. IRR
, 2,5% ( IRR) .
. 51. PI .
. 52. PI
, 2.5% PI 1. , ( PI) .
, .
. 53. DPB .
. 54. DPB
, 2,5% -12 .
, , , , , - 1 .
:
- ;
- ;
- ;
- ;
- .
:
- ;
- ;
- ;
- .
, - , , .
, , - :
- ;
- ;
- .
|
|
Project Expert, Microsoft Excel.
, :
- ;
- .
(NPV, IRR, PI DPB) :
1. ( ) ;
2. ;
3. .
, .
, :
- - ;
- .
, .
1
Project Expert, Microsoft Excel.
13.
13. - MS Excel, .
CF | 340810.00 | 37986.00 | 127942.84 | 101734.21 | 107696.40 | 107696.40 | 101903.45 | 107696.40 | 107696.40 | 102092.51 | 107696.40 | 166758.68 | |||||||
15384.62 | 14102.56 | 12820.51 | 11538.46 | 10256.41 | 8974.36 | 7692.31 | 6410.26 | 5128.21 | 3846.15 | 2564.10 | 1282.05 | ||||||||
CFt | 325425.38 | 23883.44 | 115122.32 | 90195.75 | 97439.99 | 98722.04 | 94211.14 | 101286.14 | 102568.19 | 98246.36 | 105132.29 | 165476.63 | |||||||
DCFt | 325425.38 | 23523.31 | 111676.73 | 86176.88 | 91694.54 | 91500.17 | 86002.61 | 91066.98 | 90829.14 | 85690.08 | 90313.31 | 140008.32 | |||||||
DCFt | 325425.38 | 348948.69 | 460625.42 | 546802.30 | 638496.83 | 729997.01 | 815999.62 | 907066.61 | 997895.74 | 1083585.82 | 1173899.13 | 1313907.45 | |||||||
ICt | 1045000.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
DICt | 1045000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||
DICt | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | 1045000.00 | |||||||
CFt | -719574.62 | 23883.44 | 115122.32 | 90195.75 | 97439.99 | 98722.04 | 94211.14 | 101286.14 | 102568.19 | 98246.36 | 105132.29 | 165476.63 | |||||||
DCFt | -719574.62 | 23523.31 | 111676.73 | 86176.88 | 91694.54 | 91500.17 | 86002.61 | 91066.98 | 90829.14 | 85690.08 | 90313.31 | 140008.32 | |||||||
DCFt | -719574.62 | -696051.31 | -584374.58 | -498197.70 | -406503.17 | -315002.99 | -229000.38 | -137933.39 | -47104.26 | 38585.82 | 128899.13 | 268907.45 | |||||||
r (), % | 1.53% | ||||||||||||||||||
NPVi | 268907.45 | ||||||||||||||||||
NPV | PV | IRR | PI | DPB | DPBT, . | ||||||||||||||
268 907.453 | 1 313 907.453 | 120.67% | 1.37 | 0.795 | |||||||||||||||
:
1. / .. , , 2010.
2. , . : . . / . -: , 2001. 409 .: . ( ).
3. .. . - . , , 2012, 5 ..
:
1. " , " 25 1999 39- ( ).
2. : / , , 2010.
3. / , .:, 2010.
4. ., ., . . - .: -, 2006, 2009.
5. : / . .: .. , .. , .. . - 20 ; . . - .:, 2010.
6. 7.1-84 . .
7. /. .. , .., .., .., .., .. . . .. . .:- , 2000 - 32.
1. / http://www.zipsites.ru/
2. . / http://mirkin.eufn.ru
3. / http://www.bse.chemport.ru
4. ", , / http://www.ecsocman.edu.ru
5. , / http://www.camit.ru/index.php/ru/links
6. / http://www.iqlib.ru
[1] ..
[2] ..
[3] , , , 0.99 ( 99%)