, Salmonella
QRAM Salmonella (. 1), , Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) @Risk ( 4.0, , Palisade, Newfield, NY), . , ( 1), ( 2), ( 3), ( 4), ( 5). , QRAM 2.
PERT ( 3 5) PERT ( 1, 2 4; Oscar, 1998). PERT , , , , .
. 1. (QRAM) Salmonella Excel @RISK. , QRAM 2 QRAM . 3.
PERT , , , , .
QRAM, @RISK PERT 1, 2 4. , , 1 PERT 1, 2 4. , @RISK , PERT 1, 2 4, . (Oscar, 2002) ( ., 2002) Salmonella QRAM . , , QRAM Salmonella.
2.2.
2.2.1. 1-
QRAM Salmonella . (Bryan Doyle, 1995; Waldroup, 1996) , Salmonella - (. Waldroup , 1992), ( , 1992; Waldroup , 1992; Jorgensen ., 2002). , , (1995) , Salmonella 0% 100% 30%. 30%, (1995).
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Salmonella (MPN) ( 3). MPN Salmonella , 10 MPN, MPN > 300 > 1100. PERT Salmonella - 1 MPN ( , , ), - 10 MPN ( 3), 450 MPN ( 3) ( 2).
2.2.2. 2-
Salmonella . , . , (Anonymous, 2002), Salmonella Typhimurium () (Oscar, 2002). PERT , -, , log Salmonella () (Oscar, 2002). , Salmonella, .
943 (Anonymous, 2002), , 0,2 6,3 1 . , 3,9 21,1 0 7,80C. PERT (Oscar, 2002), . 0,02% ( 2). , 0,0005 0,15 log 0,04 log ; PERT Salmonella ( 2). (Anonymous, 2002) () (Oscar, 2002) , , log Salmonella . , , , (, ), (, %), Salmonella (, ) (, ) log .
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2.2.3. 3 ()
Salmonella . Salmonella, , , (Mazzotta, 2000; Murphy ., 2002), , Salmonella (Bayne et al., 1965; Murphy et al., 1999), (Brown , 1998) Salmonella (Doyle Mazzotta 2000). (Anonymous, 2002) Salmonella (Murphy ., 2002). Excel @RISK (. 2). PERT , 26 930C 620C (Anonymous, 2002). , PERT 55, 62 700C (. 2), ( ., 2002) 55-700C.
(Anonymous, 2002). , , Salmonella , 15 , 30 , 45 . () , log Salmonella 96 0,83 8,1; PERT ( 2). , , , log Salmonella . , , , , (, ), (, % ), Salmonella (, ) (, ) log . , Salmonella , , Salmonella 0 ( 2). , Salmonella 1, , Salmonella Salmonella.
, 0 | 62,2 | =RiskPert(55,62,70) | |
D-, min | 3,57 | =POWER(10,8.7344-(0.1316*B2)) | |
, min | =RiskPert(15,30,45) | ||
Log Cycle Reduction | 8,39 | =RiskOutput()+B4/B3 |
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.2. C Salmonella ( 3 .1), Excel @Risk. . PERT Salmonella , 5.
2.2.4. 4-
Salmonella . , Salmonella ,. , , . , , .
, , Salmonella ( 4) ( 2). , 28% ( 4) ( 2). , PERT Salmonella 0,021, 0,057 0,24 , , ( 2) .
, self-. , Salmonella , , Salmonella . , Salmonella, . , , Salmonella. , , (, ), Salmonella (, ) (, ) Salmonella .
2.2.5. 5-
Salmonella. PERT . @RISK . . , , (, % ), Salmonella (, ) (, ) .
, , , , Salmonella . - Salmonella (McCullough Eisele, 1951 a,b,c). (Rose ., 1995; Coleman Marks, 1998; Teunis ., 1999; Latimer ., 2001) Salmonella. , 105 1010 13 (Blaser Newman, 1982). , Salmonella (), , Salmonella / 101 1011 <103, (Blaser Newman, 1982; Vought Tatini, 1998). , PERT ( 2) 1 log M, 3 log M 7 log M. . , Salmonella , @RISK. , : .
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4 Salmonella
(%) | (%) | (%) | (%) | ||||
Worsfold Griffith, 1997 | |||||||
33,5 | Altekruse ., 1995 | ||||||
33,5 | Jay .,1999 | ||||||
Salmonella | 3,0 | 5,0 | 10,0 | Carson .,1987 | |||
1,8 | 8,7 | 41,7 | Chen ., 2001 | ||||
3,0 | 32,4 | Chen ., 2001 | |||||
0,6 | 3,5 | 10,4 | Montville ., 2001 |
10.
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