. Microsoft Excel. , P 50, 75, 95- . (, ) .
@ Risk Microsoft Excel 7 (Palisade Corporation, ). - 10000 . (, ). AFM1 Best fit. Best fit Chi-square. / (P/P) / (Q/Q), .
, 1 26 (78%) 2,3 98 /. 1 , 20 / ( ).
() M1 (/) AF B1 2 ( / BW).
2.
110 , (, , , ..) ( 2).
3 (/ /) (, , ).
, ( ) 50 , , 50 50000, 1/100000. AFM1 2,5 / / ( .H., T. 2015).
( ) , AF 1 0,1398 -1 -1 (. 0,4920 -1 -1). AFM1 55 , .
, , AFM1. 95 .
2. 1 ( -1) , /
AF B1 -1 | AF M1 , -1 | , / ( , ) | , / |
2.3 | 0.013 | 50 (88) | 0.000568 |
4.9 | 0.026 | 150 (19) | 0.007895 |
5.1 | 0.027 | 250 (69) | 0.003623 |
7.0 | 0.037 | 200 (33) | 0.006061 |
13.1 | 0.067 | 180 (58) | 0.003103 |
17.0 | 0.087 | 220 (15) | 0.014667 |
49.0 | 0.247 | 270 (24) | 0.01125 |
68.0 | 0.342 | 150 (49) | 0.003061 |
98.0 | 0.492 | 390 (66) | 0.005909 |
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3. 1 ( -1 -1)
-1 -1 | Ma | 50 % | 75 % | 95 % | |
0.0052 | 0.0181 | 0.00402 | 0.00555 | 0.01313 | |
AF M1 | 0.1398 | 0.4920 | 0.087 | 0.237 | 0.339 |
0.00073 | 0.00892 | 0.00035 | 0.00131 | 0.00445 | |
0.0025 | 0.0025 | 0.0025 | 0.0025 | 0.0025 | |
0.29 | 3.57 | 0.14 | 0.52 | 1.78 |
Best fit ( chi-squared ) 4, .
Excel: = IF(Randbetween>fraction of concentrations, 0 (LOD/2, LOD), )
5 , AFM1 (, , , ) ( -1 -1) (.) .
4. Best fit , 1 ( -1) ( -1 -1)
AFM1 | |||
RiskTriang(0.013;0.013;0.53168) | RiskLoglogistic (0.00020572;0.0040928;3.3835) |
5. , (, , -1 -1) (.)
ALL Intake (for consumer) | ALL Intake (for population) LB | ALL Intake (for population) MB | ALL Intake (for population) UB | |
Min | 0.000016 | 0.000000 | 0.000027 | 0.000014 |
SD | 0.000952 | 0.000793 | 0.000739 | 0.000871 |
Mean | 0.000925 | 0.000451 | 0.000691 | 0.000931 |
Max | 0.025926 | 0.029248 | 0.010505 | 0.040164 |
Med (P50) | 0.000684 | 0.000000 | 0.000514 | 0.000753 |
P90 | 0.001934 | 0.001375 | 0.001419 | 0.001875 |
P95 | 0.002474 | 0.001877 | 0.001915 | 0.002215 |
P99.9 | 0.008088 | 0.005528 | 0.005777 | 0.006871 |
P(X<TDI) | 95.1% | 97.5% | 97.4% | 97.3% |
Fraction population exceeding | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
5, , AF 1 0,0025 -1 -1, 4,9% (.) .
1 2. 1, : .
1. AF 1
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2. AF M1
9