, , 150 000 . , , , 169 883. 150 000, 19 883 , (JVPV) . , NPV :
NPV = CF1/(1+k) + CF2/(1+k) 2 +... + CFn / (1 + k) n - Io. (2) 1 NPV Net Present Value. . .
♦ NPV, ,
, ;
♦ NPV,
.
NPV , . , (IRR1), .
, , 150 000 , , 8% 19 883, , , , . , , , DCF, 150 000. , IRR , (, , , NPV ):
Io = CF1 /(1 + IRR) + CF2 (1 + IRR)2 +... + CF n / (1 + IRR) n
CF1 /(1 + IRR) + CF2 / (1 + IRR)2 +... + CFn / (1 + IRR) n - Io=0.
IRR , 12,85%, , 8%. , , , .
:
♦ IRR ,
, ;
♦ , , IRR ,
, .
, IRR, , , , ,
1 IRR Internal Rate of Return. . .
, ( ) . , IRR ( IRR, IRR, , . .)1.
|
|
: IRR, NPV. , , , , , NPV.
5.3. , DCF
, , : , , ( ) . , , , , . , , , . . 5.1 , . : .
5.3.1.
, , , , . , ,
1 IRR. .
1. ,
2. , ,
:
a) ;
b) ,
3.
:
a) ;
b) ;
c) ;
d) ;
e)
, . ( ), ( ) , , ( ) . , ( ) , , . , , (Free Cash Flow, FCF). , , .
|
|
, :
(
- )
EBIT (
)
(1 t c ) tc
EBIAT (
) + =
, ( , ) , 1. .
, (Profit and Loss, P&L). , ( !), (Tax Shield, TS), . , .
:
( ,
- )
EBITDA (
, )
(1-t c) tc
EBIDAA ( ,
) + ( ) t
( ) =
1 , DCf-.
- | |||
- ( 100) | - , | ||
EBIT - (40%) | 400 160 | EBITDA - (40%) | 500 200 |
EBIAT + - NWC - | 240 100 80 120 | EBIDAAT + tc (40% 100) - NWC - | 300 40 80 120 |
= | = |
, FCF P&L :
FCF = [R - - D] (1 - tc) + D - 1 - ANWC. (4)
:
FCF= [R - ] (1 - tc) + tc xD- - ANWC. (5)
, (4) (5) : (4) :
FCF= [R - ] (1 - tc) - D + tcx D + D - - ANWC,
(5) -D +D.
. 5.2 , .
, , , , . (terminal) . .
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1 Capital Excpenditures . . .
80% . , . : (180 000) 142 890, 84% (142 890 / 169 863) .
1.
. :
♦ (. .
,
,
( < )
( >
), ).
♦ , , .
(perpetuity) (multiples).
. , . , , , 11 000/0,08 = 137 500 ( 180 000, ). , :
TVn=CFn/k. (6)
(growingperpetuity) , g . :
TVn = CxFnx(1+g)/(k-g). (1)
1 Note on alternative methods for estimating terminal value, Harvard Business School, N9-298-166.
, 5% ,
TV3 = 11 000 (1 + 0,05) / (0,08 - 0,05) = 385 000,
, 180 000, .
, , , ( 1,6%).
. , - , , !
. ( ) . , ( ).
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(EBIAT, EBITDA) ( ) . . , , . , , 1.
1 Note on alternative methods for estimating terminal value, p. 6.
5.4. :