: . .
1
. . .
, ,
- , ( ). : " " ( , ), , .
: - , , , , () .
[12] "" (), , , . - () . 15 . [46 - 48] - [10 - 16]. , , , , .
- - - , , -, , / (), - , .. , , , - . , , : , - , , ; . 2.
- "-" (">, <"), "" (">, <, =" - . [12, 25, 29, 51]). - "-" ("same-different" - "=, ≠"), . ( "=, ≠"-), , , , "- " [31]. "=, ≠" , : ( - accuracy) .
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1 ( N 03 - 06 - 00076).
2 , , [12], .
. 41
. 1. () , (PC - ) ( - ). , 1, 2 - ( ), 3 - . . [43].
. 2. () (R1 - R2) --- ( - ) " ", - , b - , - , d - . . [29].
XIX XX . XX . . , . .
1. - -
, , ">, <" , (. [29]). . "=, ≠ ", , - , .. , , : - .
2.
XIX . , , "" ( " " () - underconfidence). , . : , - "" ( - overconfidence [29]), , ( ., 1961; ., 1966; , 1980; , 1988; ., 1991 - . [46]). (. . 1.)
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( ). - , , "-" - (hard-easy effect): - ( ). . [29] , . : ) ; ) , , ) " " , , . : "-" (. 2). ( ) : b + = 1.
. 42
, 0.5. , ( > b), , () 0.5, (b) . "" 0.5 ( , "" 1), , 0.5. - . , , . [29, 35, 42].
, - ">, <, =" . , - [42]. [27].
: . , .
- "=, ≠"-.
3.
- , . , " " [35, 42], - 20 - 40% [27], - 90% ! [46, 48]. , 46.3% 15.5% 20% (, 1981 - . [27]).
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(, , ). - ( ) ( ., 1996, 1997; , , 1997 - . [27]). . . . [27] ( ) , - .
( ).
4.
- . . . [53] 14 , 4 : , -, -, . , , , , - . , , , , . . . , , [6], . . - [7]. . - NEO PI-R (Big Five [32]).
- , . -, , . [11]. [39, 40] , -
. 43
, : , , " ". , . , , . .
5. ,
, ( ). . , , , , [51]. , ; [43]. ( ), " (Swensson), 1972" (. [38]): , - . "=, ≠"-.
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6.
(, , BS, R, S - . ""). . , [12].
"=, ≠"-.
7.
XX . - (), - . , , , , . : ) - , , ; ) (. [12, 23, 26, 51]). - "brain-like''- , .. , . , - , - , . , "=, ≠".
. . [18, 19]. , , . , . ( - ).
, . . [22, 23]. , .
, - ( ).
- , "- " "-". :
1. , : .
2. " ":
. 44
.
3. . . [27] - - , .
4. "-". : , .
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5. , , , .
6. .
7. .
. 20 11.5. -286 - 486, 800600 . . "-" "-" (same-different) . 600 (" ", [21]), (600 - Δt) Δt 70 - 80%- ( 55 - 250 ). 0.008 , .. 1 - 2% . ( 600 ) (600 600 - Δt, . 25 7 Δt 100 - 300 , 10 - 30 ( 70 ). 1 , ( ) . Δt 100 .
: 1) "" "" 2) , .. . . .
71 , 18 - 51 , . 1) 29 . - ; 2) 42 . - . 15 . - , . ø (). , , . . ( 21 .) . ( 6 .). 12000. , , . , , , . , - ( 1 - 2 ), , .
"-" . [36] . . [1].
( ): , , . 20 : -
. 45
1. --- ( ); ( )
PC | PC' | ' | ||
d | d/c + d | a/a + b | ||
con | 0.656 | 0.229 | 0.916 | 0.832 |
b | c/c + d | b/a + b | ||
uncon | 0.061 | 0.039 | 0.085 | 0.144 |
. : PC (proportion correct) - , (proportion erroneous) - , PC' - , ' - . Con (confident) - , uncon (unconfident) - . : a, b, c, d - . . 3 . 2.
( Δt); (PC); ; , ; (MX). : (Bias - ) ; - : (Calibration - ) (Brier Score - BS) - , ; (Resolution - R) - ; (Slope - 5) - . MX, , , BS, R, S [25, 29, 45, 54]:
: uncon - ; con - ; N - ; xi - i- : "" 0.5 ( ), "" - 1 ( ); ni - i- ; i - i- ; cor - ; err - ( , , BS, S R, ); : , ; ( , ).
: , -. : , "" - , , . , , , . , . - ( ), .
3
1. - -
1.1. .
- (. . 1).
) (d = = 0.656) 2.8 ( = 0.229), < 0.001 ( ). ">, <"-: d > (. 2, . [29]).
) ( = 0.061)
3 2.2; 2.3 3 , (29 42 ); - .
. 46
2. : (a), (b), (), (d) ( "=, ≠"- [46], [28, 41] ">, < "- [28, 41])
b | d | + d = PC | a + b = PE | c/c + d | b/a + b | MX | B = MX-PC | |||
"=, ≠" [46] | +218 | |||||||||
">, < " | ||||||||||
[41] | -028 | |||||||||
[28] | -068 | |||||||||
[41, 28] | -048 |
. MX - ; PC - , - ; - . .
(b = 0.039), .. > b (. 2, . [29]), - 1.56 (. 3, A), : < 0.01 ( ). , : , (. . 2).
1.2. , ( . 1), ( . 2). (. [46]), - , "" (R), - "" (). --- , .
1.3. . ( . 1, . 3, ): (b/( + b) = 0.144) 1.7 , (/( + d) = 0.085). , - 41 48 ( < 0.01, ). [37]. , , (b < , . 2, 3, ). , (b/(a + b)> c/(c + d), . 3, A) (b < , . 1, . 3, ). -
. 3. - () () ; - (') (') .
. 4. (), (b), (), (d) : - "=, ≠"- [46]; - ">, <"- ( [41] [28]). (PC = 0.7 - 0.8).
. 47
3. ,
MX | PC | |||||
1- | 0.934 | 0.716 | +0.218 | 0.799 | 0.775 | 1.011 |
2- | 0.890 | 0.735 | +0.165 |
. MX - ; PC - ; (Bias) - ( = MX - PC); - ; - ; - ( ).
, , , (PC = 0.7 - 0.8 [28, 41]), , "=, ≠" - ">, <"- (. 2).
2.
2.1. "=, ≠" ("-") . : ( ), ( ).
2.2. 29 39 ( 42) - () - . ( = MX-PC) : +0.218 (. 3), +0.165.
(: PC = 0.7 - 0.8) [8], . , ">, <" - : () ( PC = 0.8 - 1.0) , , (PC = 0.7 - 0.8), , (PC = 0.2 - 0.5 [25, 27]). ">, <"- [30, 49]. , "=, ≠", , ">, <" .
, (), ">, <", ( PC = 0.7 - 0.8 [28, 29, 35, 41, 42]). , ("-") : ">, <" [28, 41] "=, ≠" ( [46]), --- , (. 4).
. , "=, ≠" ( : b + ) 0.039 + 0.061 =0.1 (. 4, ), ">, <": 0.164 + 0.409 = 0.573 (. 4, ), .. 6 , (. . 2).
. ( > b), "=, ≠" ( 1.56 ), ">, <" ( 2.5 ). , , . . [29], , , [35, 42], . , , b ( ), , , .
2.3. ( = +0.218; +0.165) , ">, <"- (PC = 0.68 - 0.81; = = +0.013...+0.072 [25, 27]). ( = 0.063) ">, <" ( = 0.000064 - 0.063, , . [47]). , ( ), , "=, ≠" ">, <".
, , , "=, ≠"- , ">, <"- ("") [33], , ( - -
. 48
). . : . "=, ≠" , ">, <" - . , , : PC ~ 0.7 - 0.8. "=, ≠" (" ") , ">, <" (" " [3, 20]). . , , , . "=, ≠"- ">, <" , : (. [3, 20]). , "=, ≠" , , ">, <".
"=, ≠"- . ( , 70 - 80% ) : 100 - 225 , .. 17 - 37% , 600 [46]. , ">, <" (PC = 0.7 - 0.8) 1 - 5% [25, 27, 43], 7 - 17 , "=, ≠". , "=, ≠"- , . , . , "=, ≠"- , , , . , ">, <"-, , .
: ) : ( ) ( "=, ≠" ">, <"); ) "=, ≠" ">, <"; ) , "=, ≠", , ">, <" (. 5).
3.
, ( ), , . 29 ( ) 15 ( ) [16, 48]. . 4.
, (MΔt = 170) 70 - 80%- ( ) , (MΔt = 143). ( = 0.742; 0.716), , (70 - 80%). (() = 0.866) ( = 0.742), (B = - () = 0.124) ( 14 . 15, < 0.01, ). , , . , (() = 0.866 0.934), ( ) ( = 0.124 0.218). ( ) . ( ), , ( ).
, (. 5).
. 49
4. ,
(<) | |||
Δt, σ | 170; 39 | 143; 28 | 0.006 |
, σ | 0.742; 0.034 | 0.716; 0.050 | 0.229 - |
(), σ | 0.866; 0.0105 | 0.934; 0.060 | 0.001 |
MB, σ | 0.124; 0.011 | 0.218; 0.066 | 0.0001 |
. "".
. 5 , PC = = 0.7 - 0.8 , , , ( < 0.0001, -) , (MB = 0.035 [25, 27]), , (MB = - 0.77 [28, 29, 35, 41, 42]). . . [27] ( ). , . 5, , , ( ), ">, <"- : "-" " ".
, , ( ), :
1) - "=, ≠"-, (7 - 17% ), ">, <"-, (1 - 7% [27]);
2) ("-"), () - ( ) , . [44], -
5. ">, <" "=, ≠"- ( - . [47])
N | , , , | PC | MX | |
Obr., 1948 [41] (.); -; , | 0.750 0.750 | 0.665 0.780 | -0.085 0.030 | |
Bjor., Qvar., 1963 [28] (.); 2; | 0.793 0.783 0.791 | 0.770 0.770 0.712 | -0.023 -0.013 -0.079 | |
Bjor. et al., 1993 [29] (.); 2; , | 0.782 0.747 | 0.667 0.602 | -0.115 -0.145 | |
., Petr., 1994 [25] (.); 2; | 0.796 0.747 0.766 0.761 0.711 0.617 0.551 | 0.783 0.784 0.779 0.833 0.755 0.747 0.780 | -0.013 0.037 0.013 0.072 0.044 0.130 0.229 | |
Bar., Petr., 1995 (. [46]) (.); 2; | 0.667 0.538 | 0.779 0.784 | 0.112 0.246 | |
Petr., ., 1997 [43] (.); 2; | 0.678 | 0.834 | 0.156 | |
Bar., Petr., 1999 [27] (.); 2; | 0.720 0.787 0.719 0.529 0.580 | 0.064 0.010 0.052 0.233 0.184 | ||
Oils., Win., 1996 [42] (.); 2; | 0.780 0.785 0.757 0.712 0.736 0.738 0.798 0.798 0.313 0.338 | 0.720 0.695 0.701 0.594 0.608 0.676 0.659 0.721 0.666 0.693 | -0.060 -0.090 -0.056 -0.118 -0.128 -0.062 -0.139 -0.077 0.353 0.355 | |
Skotn., 1994 [46] (); "=, ≠"; | 0.731 | 0.950 | 0.218 | |
Skotn. et al., 2001 [48] (); "=, ≠*"; | 0.742 | 0.866 | 0.124 |
. , ">, <", PC = 0.7 - 0.8 PC, >, <, , +0.1 (, =, ≠). ">, <", "=, ≠" PC , - - "-" , 2 - .
[28, 29, 41, 42], .. ;
3) - [17]. , 1000 [34], .
. 50
- [27]. . , , .
4.
.
: 67% , 23% , 6% 4% . (, "") - (/) , , , , (r = 0.352 - 0.463, < 0.02 - 0.008), . / , , , (5290 15180), .. . ( - , ). (1380), (920) (2300). , /. ( ) . NEO PI-R (Big Five [32]).
, , .. , : , , " ". , , [11]. . . ( ), , - , , . . , , , , .
. . [8] (. ""). - "" : . , . . (. [8]).
"()" ( " " ) . , , , . ( , - ) . , . , , , .
. 51
" " " " (Bias) . , "" (" ") , . , , , , . "" (" "), , , , , , .
"-" - . , . . [11]: ; , . , (" "), .
, . . [8] , , , , .. , ; ; , , .
, .. ; .
5. ,
5.1. 48 49 (.. ) 30%: 1011 775 (. . 2). () " " (Swensson, 1972 - . [38]), , ( ) , . (1971) ; (1974) - , ; (1976) - (. [38]).
, . (. 1.3) - - ( ). : , : .
5.2. , "" , , . (. [9, 38]). , ( , ) ( , , , , : r = = 0.297 - 0.612, < 0.04 - 0.0005).
5.3. - ""-, , - (r = - 0.294, < 0.03). , -, (. 5.2). , , (. 2.2) , .. . , , , : 1011 , 30% (775 ) 27% (799 ). ,
. 52
.
6.
, , - (. [12]). , , () (, BS): r = 0.268 - 0.851; < 0.05 - 0.003, , (R) (5): r =