ROE , :
ROE = / *100%, (6.14)
, .
ROE . ROE ( 10% ), , . ROE (. 4.2). 4 :
- . 10 ( ROE = 100% );
- , . 2 4 ( ROE = 20-40% );
- , , ( ). , . 1.5 2 ( ROE = 15-20% );
- , . , .
, ( 2-3 ). , . :
(ROC), % :
ROC = / Cap*100%, (6.15)
Cap .
(PE), :
PE = Cap / . (6.16)
(PB):
PB = Cap / . (6.17)
(6.17) (6.18) :
PB = PE * ROE. (6.18)
, . , PE 15, 7-10.
6.3. , , ROE = 10% . , () ?
|
|
. ROE 20-40% , () 50% 75% .
6.4. PE = 10, PB = 3. ROE?
. (6.18) :
ROE = PB / PE*100% = 30% .
. , 6.1. () (). , , .
6.1.
1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | |
(), . . | ||||
(), % | 3% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
() | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
(), . . | 3.8 | 9.3 | 23.1 | 6.1 |
(), . . | 1.9 | 4.7 | 11.5 | 3.1 |
, 6.2. .
6.2.
, | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() |
. , , . , , . , 50% . . , (, ), , 14% .
6.3.
, . . | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
() | |
(. 6.3), :
|
|
= *4 / ( ) (6.19)
= *4 / ( ) (6.20)
, , 246 . . , 39 . . , , . , 1.9 . . . :
i = i-1 + i-1 - i-1, i , (6.21)
= . (6.22)
, (6.19) (6.22), . . 6.4.
6.4. ()
, . . | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | |
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
() | |||||
, , . , :
i = i - i-1 0 , (6.23)
i. = i - i-1 0 . (6.24)
: ( ), ( ).
,
i. = i-1 * 14%/4 ( ), (6.25)
i = i - i. - i., (6.26)
i = i, (6.27)
i = 0 ( ), (6.28)
i = i - i. (6.29)
. , , ( ), , :
= 2 1 , (6.30)
2, 1 .
:
i = i + i - i-1, (6.31)
i, i-1 .
:
= . (6.32)
, (6.23) (6.32). . 6.5. , , , : . . 6.6.
|
|
6.3 6.6 , =3, . , . , , . .
, , . , - .
6.5. ()
, . . | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. |
30.0 | 30.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | |
() | 150.0 | 276.0 | 436.0 | 52.0 |
() | 144.8 | 384.4 | 611.2 | -239.5 |
() | 5.2 | -108.4 | -175.2 | 291.5 |
() | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
() | 1.9 | 4.7 | 11.5 | 3.1 |
() | -1.9 | -4.7 | -11.5 | -3.1 |
() | 0.0 | 128.3 | 216.5 | 0.0 |
(.) | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 307.1 |
(.) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5.8 | 13.4 |
() | -3.3 | 127.0 | 210.7 | -320.4 |
30.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 36.0 |
6.6.
1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | |
() | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.45 |
() | 0.98 | 1.86 | 3.22 | 1.21 |
, % . | 3% | 7% | 17% | 5% |
, % . | 2% | 1% | 3% | 17% |
(WACC), % . | 3% | 3% | 6% | 11% |
6
- WACC, , ?
- , ? ?
- , WACC ?
- , , , WACC?
- = 3 ? 10, 100?
- , WACC, , ? ?
7.
, . , , , , . , -, . :
|
|
- , , 7.2 7.10;
- ;
- , , -, ..;
- . , .
. , . 7.1. , , , .
. 7.1.
(, , , ) :
- , . ;
- (, , ), ;
- ;
- , . (. 6.5), . , / .
, , () ( 30 ., 60 . . ), ( ) . , . :
- () , , ;
- () , , , (). , , , ;
- () , , (). , .
, . , , .
. ( ), . , . , , . , , . ( ), () , . , , 7.1.
|
|
7.1 . i , j , Pi i- , nij , i- , j- .
, (7.1)
N
. (7.2)
7.1.
, :
- ;
- ;
- , , , ;
- , , ;
- ( , );
- , .
, , , , 6.5. , , . .
. 7.2, . 7.3. , ( . 7.2 ). :
+ = + . (7.3)
, , ( ). , t :
t = t+1 * 12 / t, (7.4)
, t. , . , ( ), , .
, , .
7.2.
7.3.
( , ).
, (), , (). , (), , . , . ( ) . (), .
:
- , % ;
- , % ;
- , % ;
- , % ;
- , , % . : ;
- , % ;
. . , . , , , , , , - ..
, . , .
. 7.4.
7.4.
:
- i i- , . . c ; ;
- δij . 7.4, i- j- ;
- j j- , . . c ;
- i i- , . . c ;
- i i- , . . c ;
- i i- .
:
, (7.5)
, j≠6, (7.6)
, j≠5,6, (7.7)
i = i i (7.8)
i = i / i. (7.9)
(7.5) (7.9) . 7.5. , , . Excel, . , , . , .
()
, , :
- , ( . 7.6 );
- , ;
- .
7.5.
, :
+ c = + , . (7.10)
7.6.
, , ( ). , j- t :
tj = t+1j * 12 / tj, (7.11)
tj j- , t. , . , ( ), , .
, . (7.10) (7.11) . 7.6. ( , ). , ( ) . .
, , . (. . 7.7), . , , .
7.7. ( )
. . | , . | |
() | . | |
. | ||
() | ||
() |
. 7.8.
7.8.
, ( ), , :
- (, , );
- , ;
- , .
, , . 7.9. , . : (), () . () , .
7.9.
7.8.
, :
= + . (7.12)
, , , . 30-60 . , , , , . , ( ).
, , . , j- t :
tj = t+1j * 12 / tj, (7.13)
tj j- , t. , . , ( ), , .
. 7.10.
7.10.
7.9.
. . ():
= + . (7.14)
7.11.
, , , ( 30-60 ). ( ). , ( ).
. , j- t :
tj = t+1j * 12 / tj, (7.15)
tj j- , t. , . , ( ), , .
. 7.11.
( ), . , . , . , , , ( , ). , (. . 7.12).
7.12.
, , . , (). , , 3 . . , , = 9 . . , , , .
, :
= + (7.16)
( ), . 5 . .
, , , ( ). . 7.13. , .
. 7.13.
, . ( ), : , . , , . , . , . , . , (. . 7.14).
7.14.
, , . , . , . , , ( 1.5 . , 6 , ). WACC ( 50% ), , . , , , . .
. ; , . , , . .
7
- , ? ? ?
- ?
- ?
- ? ?
- , ?
8.
6 3 . . , , , , , .. . - , . , . , , , , 4.
, , . , (), . , . , , .
: (), () (). ( ) S(t), t , . 8.1.
. 8.1. S(t)
:
(max), (min) (av) ;
L-:
L1 = (min + av)/2, L2 = (av + max)/2; (8.1)
:
- S(t) < L1, ();
- L1 < S(t) < L2, ();
- S(t) > L2, ().
( , , ). , .
, , . , ( ). (), . [4]. , , , .
(WACC). , , . .
1. , , . , , :
- WACC 10% ;
- WACC 6 8% ;
- WACC 5% .
.
2. (, 8% 10% ). , . , , WACC, 1 ( WACC = 10% ) ( WACC=8% ). (, , ).
3. , [6]. , , , . , 0,5.
4. (. 8.2), / . 8.2 ( ) ( ).
5. , .
6. , WACC , ():
< * WACC, (8.2)
WACC , ( ).
. 8.2. WACC
8.1 , . ; , . (, , ), , . . 8.2. , .
8.1.
8.2.
.
8.1. =1 . . WACC 5-6% . , , (8.2), 50-60 . .
8.2. 20 . . , (. . 8.1) 5 . , 40 . . (2.20), 20*5 = 100 . ., ( ).
8.3. 3 , 2 . , 1.5 , ; 1.5 , .
8.4. 20 , 15 . . , . :
- 70 ( ), 50 . ;
- 70 90 ( ), 100 . ;
- 90 ( ), 150 . .
20 . , , 20% (4 ) , 60% (12 ) - , 20% (4 ) - . , 20 . / 12 / 20 = 83 ( ).
, = 12 * 20 * 15 . . = 3.6 . , = 20 . * (20%*50 . + 60%*100 . + 20%*150 .) = 20 000 * 100 = 2 . . . = + = 5.6 . .
, , .. 50%, ( ). 1.5 , 1.5 . 15 10 . . , 50%. 2.4 + 3 = 5.4 . ., 200 . . .
8
- ?
- (crisp) (fuzzy)?
- ?
9.
. : 1) , ; 2) , .
- ( ), :
= , (9.1)
= ( ) / . (9.2)
, :
10%- ;
10 25% ;
25%- .
; 1) - ; 2) , , , ; 3) , . , , , . , , .
[1, 7]. , , , , , , , .
, . 1 , 2 . Z
Z = f (X, Y), (9.3)
1,2 = LE1,2 * 1,2, (9.4)
( Z), LE ( X), ( Y).
(. 9.1). Y, (9.5), .
. 9.1.
D Z (*):
D Z (X) = f (X2, Y1) - f (X1, Y1),
D Z (Y) = f (X2, Y2) - f (X2, Y1). (9.5)
(9.5)
D Z (X) + D Z (Y) = f (X2, Y2) - f (X1, Y1) = Z2 Z1 = D Z - (9.6)
Z, . (9.1).
() = D Z (X) / D Z,
(Y) = D Z (Y) / D Z, (9.7)
, (9.6),
() + (Y) = 1 = 100%. (9.8)
, X Y Z, , .
9.1. LE, , . (9.1), (9.4) . 9.1. , .
9.1. ,
LE | |||
, . . | |||
, . . |
, , (4800 2000) / 2000 = 130%. , . :
D (LE) = LE2 * 1 LE1 * 1 = 200*(12-10) = 400 . .
D () = LE2 * 2 LE2 * 1 = 12*(400-200) = 2400 . .
(LE) = 400 / (4800-2000) = 14%, () = 2400 / (4800-2000) = 86%.
9.2.
9.2. ,
LE | 14% | ||||
, . . | 86% | ||||
, . . | 100% |
, 100%, 20%. , 130% , . .
9.2.
,
T = f (X, Y, Z). (9.9)
(. 9.2).
. 9.2.
:
D T (X) = f (X2, Y1, Z1) - f (X1, Y1, Z1),
D T (Y) = f (X2, Y2, Z1<