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F = T + S E
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F t = a F t-1 + (1-) F t
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1. . . , , , . , , . , F = T + S + E (F - , T - , S - , E - ) S, , . .
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E = F-T-S,
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1. F=T+S+E | |||
1.1. | , (T1, T2, T3 ) | ʳ | , |
1.2. | (, T1, T2, T3..., ) | 1,00 | |
1.3. | ( ) | ( = 2) | |
1.4. | (S) | 0,00 | |
1.5. | (E) | ( ) | 0,00 |
1.6. | | [1- ]*100% | 100,00% |
1.7. | (F*[1-]; F*[1+]) | 0,00% | |
2. | |||
2.1. | ( ) | ||
2.2. | |||
2.3. | , |
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.. | ̳ | (.) | .. | ̳ | (.) |
8174,4 | 8991,84 | ||||
5078,33 | 5586,16 | ||||
4507,2 | 4957,92 | ||||
2257,19 | 2482,91 | ||||
3400,69 | 3740,76 | ||||
2968,71 | 3265,58 | ||||
2147,14 | 2361,85 | ||||
1325,56 | 1458,12 | ||||
2290,95 | 2520,05 | ||||
2953,34 | 3248,67 | ||||
4216,28 | 4637,91 | ||||
8227,569 | 9050,3264 |
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1.1. , , , MS Excel:
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1.2. г , 1. , , MS Excel , ( ) - 1 24 (. 2). Y - .
3.
.. | ̳ | (.) | ˳ | |||
8174,4 | 7573,317 | 4136,046 | ||||
5078,33 | 6155,792 | 4138,092 | 5231,53299 | |||
4507,2 | 4476,995 | 4140,138 | 5377,50042 | |||
2257,19 | 3026,496 | 4142,184 | 5481,06597 | |||
3400,69 | 2074,625 | 4144,23 | 5561,39765 | |||
2968,71 | 1724,912 | 4146,276 | 5627,03341 | |||
2147,14 | 1962,207 | 4148,322 | 5682,52765 | |||
1325,56 | 2696,48 | 4150,368 | 5730,59896 | |||
2290,95 | 3802,301 | 4152,414 | 5773,00085 | |||
2953,34 | 4154,46 | 5810,93063 | ||||
4216,28 | 6656,507 | 4156,506 | 5845,2423 | |||
8227,569 | 8271,872 | 4158,552 | 5876,56639 | |||
8991,84 | 10041,47 | 4160,598 | 5905,38177 | |||
5586,16 | 12103,86 | 4162,644 | 5932,06064 | |||
4957,92 | 14708,38 | 4164,69 | 5956,89807 | |||
2482,91 | 18224,35 | 4166,736 | 5980,13194 | |||
3740,76 | 23146,04 | 4168,782 | 6001,9568 | |||
3265,58 | 30093,2 | 4170,828 | 6022,53383 | |||
2361,85 | 39807,41 | 4172,874 | 6041,99803 | |||
1458,12 | 4174,92 | 6060,46362 | ||||
2520,05 | 71059,7 | 4176,966 | 6078,02808 | |||
3248,67 | 94595,95 | 4179,012 | 6094,77528 | |||
4637,91 | 124857,9 | 4181,058 | 6110,77792 | |||
9050,3264 | 162989,2 | 4183,104 | 6126,09938 |
. 2. г MS Excel.
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1.3. , , , 4 , (S) , S. , . 2 , .
1.4. .., . . 3 (. 4-6).
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̳ | 1 | 2 | ||
601,083 | -1049,625 | -224,271 | 763,617125 | |
-1077,462 | -603,093 | -840,2775 | 147,610625 | |
30,205 | -807,255 | -388,525 | 599,363125 | |
-769,306 | -2569,7 | -1669,503 | -681,614875 | |
1326,065 | -451,071 | 437,497 | 1425,385125 | |
1243,798 | -109,924 | 566,937 | 1554,825125 | |
184,933 | -473,622 | -144,3445 | 843,543625 | |
-1370,92 | -1366,58 | -1368,75 | -380,861875 | |
-1511,351 | -1074,26 | -1292,8055 | -304,917375 | |
-2200,66 | -2117,03 | -2158,845 | -1170,956875 | |
-2440,227 | -3659,9 | -3050,0635 | -2062,175375 | |
-44,303 | -3399,11 | -1721,7065 | -733,818375 | |
: | -11854,658 | 0,00 |
0, ( - 12). . - 0.
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4 , 0 , , . , , , . , , , . , .
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̳ | 1 | 2 | ||
4038,354 | 4831,242 | 4434,798 | 4433,979025 | |
940,238 | 1423,516 | 1181,877 | 1181,058025 | |
367,062 | 793,23 | 580,146 | 579,327025 | |
-1884,994 | -1683,826 | -1784,41 | -1785,228975 | |
-743,54 | -428,022 | -585,781 | -586,599975 | |
-1177,566 | -905,248 | -1041,407 | -1042,225975 | |
-2001,182 | -1811,024 | -1906,103 | -1906,921975 | |
-2824,808 | -2716,8 | -2770,804 | -2771,622975 | |
-1861,464 | -1656,916 | -1759,19 | -1760,008975 | |
-1201,12 | -930,342 | -1065,731 | -1066,549975 | |
59,774 | 456,852 | 258,313 | 257,494025 | |
4069,017 | 4867,2224 | 4468,1197 | 4467,300725 | |
: | 9,8277 | 0,00 |
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̳ | 1 | 2 | ||
3192,4 | 3086,458231 | 3139,429116 | 4782,806082 | |
-153,202985 | -345,9006387 | -249,5518118 | 1393,825154 | |
-870,3004239 | -998,9780724 | -934,6392482 | 708,7377178 | |
-3223,87597 | -3497,22194 | -3360,548955 | -1717,171989 | |
-2160,707648 | -2261,196804 | -2210,952226 | -567,5752602 | |
-2658,323409 | -2756,953833 | -2707,638621 | -1064,261655 | |
-3535,387654 | -3680,148032 | -3607,767843 | -1964,390877 | |
-4405,038955 | -4602,343618 | -4503,691287 | -2860,314321 | |
-3482,050848 | -3557,978078 | -3520,014463 | -1876,637497 | |
-2857,590633 | -2846,105283 | -2851,847958 | -1208,470992 | |
-1628,962298 | -1472,867918 | -1550,915108 | 92,461858 | |
2351,002606 | 2924,227021 | 2637,614814 | 4280,99178 | |
: | -19720,52359 | 0,00 |
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1.5. 3 (S) 3 (T), (E). S + T, E = F- (S + T). 7.
7. (T + S) (E).
̳ | . | . | . | . | . | . | ||
8174,4 | 7573,317 | 4136,046 | 601,083 | 4038,354 | 3192,4 | |||
5078,33 | 6155,792 | 4138,092 | 5231,533 | -1077,462 | 940,238 | -153,20299 | ||
4507,2 | 4476,995 | 4140,138 | 5377,5004 | 30,205 | 367,062 | -870,30042 | ||
2257,19 | 3026,496 | 4142,184 | 5481,066 | -769,306 | -1884,994 | -3223,876 | ||
3400,69 | 2074,625 | 4144,23 | 5561,3976 | 1326,065 | -743,54 | -2160,7076 | ||
2968,71 | 1724,912 | 4146,276 | 5627,0334 | 1243,798 | -1177,566 | -2658,3234 | ||
2147,14 | 1962,207 | 4148,322 | 5682,5277 | 184,933 | -2001,182 | -3535,3877 | ||
1325,56 | 2696,48 | 4150,368 | 5730,599 | -1370,92 | -2824,808 | -4405,039 | ||
2290,95 | 3802,301 | 4152,414 | 5773,0008 | -1511,351 | -1861,464 | -3482,0508 | ||
2953,34 | 4154,46 | 5810,9306 | -2200,66 | -1201,12 | -2857,5906 | |||
4216,28 | 6656,507 | 4156,506 | 5845,2423 | -2440,227 | 59,774 | -1628,9623 | ||
8227,569 | 8271,872 | 4158,552 | 5876,5664 | -44,303 | 4069,017 | 2351,0026 | ||
8991,84 | 10041,465 | 4160,598 | 5905,3818 | -1049,625 | 4831,242 | 3086,4582 | ||
5586,16 | 12103,856 | 4162,644 | 5932,0606 | -6517,696 | 1423,516 | -345,90064 | ||
4957,92 | 14708,375 | 4164,69 | 5956,8981 | -9750,455 | 793,23 | -998,97807 | ||
2482,91 | 18224,352 | 4166,736 | 5980,1319 | -15741,442 | -1683,826 | -3497,2219 | ||
3740,76 | 23146,037 | 4168,782 | 6001,9568 | -19405,277 | -428,022 | -2261,1968 | ||
3265,58 | 30093,2 | 4170,828 | 6022,5338 | -26827,62 | -905,248 | -2756,9538 | ||
2361,85 | 39807,411 | 4172,874 | 6041,998 | -37445,561 | -1811,024 | -3680,148 | ||
1458,12 | 4174,92 | 6060,4636 | -51685,88 | -2716,8 | -4602,3436 | |||
2520,05 | 71059,697 | 4176,966 | 6078,0281 | -68539,647 | -1656,916 | -3557,9781 | ||
3248,67 | 94595,952 | 4179,012 | 6094,7753 | -91347,282 | -930,342 | -2846,1053 | ||
4637,91 | 124857,94 | 4181,058 | 6110,7779 | -120220,03 | 456,852 | -1472,8679 | ||
9050,3264 | 162989,22 | 4183,104 | 6126,0994 | -153938,89 | 4867,2224 | 2924,227 |
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(E) () (. 8). ..
() :
= Σ 2: Σ (T + S) 2
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- ;
S - ;
-
= 0,003739 0.37%
, , , , .
:
F = T + S E
1.6. , , :
( ) = [1- ( )] * 100%
= 95.05%
= 99.81%
= 98.66%
, 3 (. 3).
8. .
̳ | . | . | . | |
1,079368525 | 1,97638034 | 1,640786833 | ||
0,82496777 | 1,227215345 | 0,97071547 | ||
1,006746713 | 1,088659364 | 0,83815893 | ||
0,745809676 | 0,544927507 | 0,411815879 | ||
1,639182985 | 0,820584282 | 0,611481181 | ||
1,721079104 | 0,715994304 | 0,527579949 | ||
1,094247447 | 0,517592414 | 0,377849459 | ||
0,491589035 | 0,319383727 | 0,231312645 | ||
0,602516739 | 0,551715219 | 0,396838674 | ||
0,573019014 | 0,710884206 | 0,508238729 | ||
0,633407281 | 1,014380829 | 0,721318259 | ||
0,994644139 | 1,978469669 | 1,400063991 | ||
0,89547093 | 2,161189329 | 1,52265177 | ||
0,46151904 | 1,341973995 | 0,941689632 | ||
0,337081425 | 1,190465557 | 0,832298948 | ||
0,136241332 | 0,595888484 | 0,415193181 | ||
0,161615572 | 0,897326845 | 0,623256735 | ||
0,108515545 | 0,782957245 | 0,542226925 | ||
0,059331917 | 0,566000795 | 0,390905457 | ||
0,027437152 | 0,349256992 | 0,240595455 | ||
0,035463844 | 0,603320688 | 0,41461638 | ||
0,03434259 | 0,777377524 | 0,533025395 | ||
0,037145497 | 1,10926708 | 0,758972108 | ||
0,055527148 | 2,163543244 | 1,477339142 | ||
: | 0,573177934 | 1,000198124 | 0,722038797 |
. 3. , .
.. , 90% -100%, , . , , . , , . . , , .
1.7. ( = 0,0019). :
(F * [1-]; F * [1 + ])
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