, . | dj, % | , . | σj2 | |
200-300 | ||||
300-400 | ||||
400-500 | ||||
500-600 | ||||
- | - | - |
.
:
:
:
:
:
:
________ %. .
4.
∆i | yi - yi-1 | yi - y1 |
(Tp) | yi / yi-1 | yi / y1 |
() | Tp 100% | Tp 100% |
() | ||
αi | ||
( ) | ||
Yi , y i-1 , Y1 .
. , , , , .
I | II | III | IV | |
187,8 | 176,4 | 142,8 | 80,2 | |
136,2 | 96,2 | 59,8 |
.
∆i: | ||
p: | ||
n: | ||
() |
. .
t | , ( % ) | yt | t2 | ||||
1.01. | -4 | ||||||
1.02. | -3 | ||||||
1.03. | -2 | 16,5 | |||||
1.04. | -1 | 19,8 | |||||
1.05. | |||||||
1.06. | 12,4 | ||||||
1.07. | 11,3 | ||||||
1.08. | |||||||
1.09. | |||||||
|
|
1. :
2. :
: = ______ - _____ t
3. .
4. .
, %
20
0
T,
5. :
, , , . , .
. , -, -, :
- = - + .
, , , . , , 20% - , , , - : -/(1-0,2).
- . , . . , . , I, . , - .
, . . t :
t | 1,6 | |||
P | 0,683 | 0,9 | 0,954 | 0,997 |
, .
, :
100 . | |||
1 | 2 | 3 | |
1. | 28,0 | ||
2. | 30,0 | 20,0 | 31,0 |
3. | 32,0 | 23,0 | 31,5 |
4. | 34,0 | 28,0 | 37,0 |
5. | 35,0 | 31,0 | 39,0 |
6. | 36,0 | 28,0 | 43,0 |
7. | 38,0 | 30,0 | 48,0 |
8. | 39,0 | 32,0 | 55,5 |
9. | 40,0 | 32,0 | 61,5 |
10. | 77,0 |
, . .
1. 1 , - . :
|
|
100 . , . | |||
______________________________ . 100 . .
:
, t = 2 (p = _________) :
tσ = ______________ .
- 9 ____________________________ .
, .
.
t | t2 | 100 . , . | yt | ||||
1. | 30,0 | ||||||
2. | 32,0 | ||||||
3. | 34,0 | ||||||
4. | 35,0 | ||||||
5. | 36,0 | ||||||
6. | 38,0 | ||||||
7. | 39,0 | ||||||
8. | 40,0 | ||||||
0:
:
:
, 100 . | ||||||||||
, 9 , t = ___:
:
tσ t=2 (σ = ______):
tσ = ___________________
- 9 , , 0,954:
- ( 9 ) = _______________________
___________ , , , 1 8 .
2. 2 ________________________, :
100 . | lgt | (lgt)2 | ylgt | |||
1. | 20,0 | |||||
2. | 23,0 | |||||
3. | 28,0 | |||||
4. | 31,0 | |||||
5. | 28,0 | |||||
6. | 30,0 | |||||
7. | 32,0 | |||||
8. | 32,0 | |||||
|
|
. , 9 . t = __, :
.
, 100 . | ||||||||||
:
tσ t=2 (σ = _______):
tσ = ______________________
-, 9 , 0,954.
- 9 _____________________. 100 . .
3. . - .
3 :
. | t | yt | yt2 | t2 | t3 | t4 | |||
1. | 28,0 | ||||||||
2. | 31,0 | ||||||||
3. | 31,5 | ||||||||
4. | 37,0 | ||||||||
5. | 39,0 | ||||||||
6. | 43,0 | ||||||||
7. | 48,0 | ||||||||
8. | 55,5 | ||||||||
9. | 61,5 | ||||||||
10. | 77,0 | ||||||||
.
.
, 11 , t = ____.
|
|
:
tσ t=3 (σ = _________): tσ = ______________________
-, 11 , 0,997. - 11 : _____________________. 100 . .
5.
.
- ip = p1/ p0 | ||||||
, . . p0 | q0 | , . . p1 | q1 | |||
. | ||||||
, . :
_____%.
, :
:
_____%.
, :
, . , , , . .
6.
- .
- ( ).
() , . , . , c .
, , , , , , . - . . , , ( , - ).
|
|
, .
:
1) ;
2) ;
3) .
.
- , () . .
n N, .. .
, 5%- 2 000 . n 100 . (5*2000:100), 20%- 400 . (20*2000:100) ..
, , (). .
, 2%- 50- (1:0,02), 5%- 20- (1:0,05) ..
, . , , , , ..
. . - . , , .
. - .
, . .
. . , .
. 250 . . 2% . :
0,954 , .
: .
xi | fi | xi fi | xi-x | (xi-x)2 | (xi-x)2 fi |
x = xi fi / Σ fi =
σ2x = (xi-x)2 fi / Σ fi
P = 0.954, t = 2.
Δx =
, X = X + Δx
: 0,954 , ___, .. ___ .