- , , , . , , .
:
Yt+1 = ∙ + b,
t + 1 ; Yt+1 ; a b - ; - .
a b :
, Y ; n ;
. , .
, , , , . , .
, , , , , :
, |
Y ; Y () ; n ; , , ( ).
3.1
15,249 | 13,566 | 13,413 | 13,056 | 12,24 | 11,8104 | 10,4804 | 9,1504 | 8,2992 | 7,5544 |
- , , , ;
- ;
- .
:
( 3.2), :
3.2
, Y | , | Y ∙ | 2 | Y | , |Y-Y|/Y∙100, % | ||
15,249 | 15,249 | 15,17974545 | 0,004541579 | ||||
13,566 | 27,132 | 32,00298667 | 1,35905843 | ||||
13,413 | 40,239 | 48,00448 | 2,578951763 | ||||
13,056 | 52,224 | 64,00597333 | 3,902418301 | ||||
12,24 | 61,2 | 80,00746667 | 5,536557734 | ||||
11,8104 | 70,8624 | 96,00896 | 7,129187834 | ||||
10,4804 | 73,3628 | 112,0104533 | 9,687612432 | ||||
9,1504 | 73,2032 | 128,0119467 | 12,98976511 | ||||
8,2992 | 74,6928 | 144,01344 | 16,35268942 | ||||
7,5544 | 75,544 | 160,0149333 | 20,18168661 | ||||
: | 114,8188 | 563,7092 | - | 79,72246921 | |||
6,555266667 | |||||||
5,859806061 | |||||||
5,164345455 |
|
|
( 3). 4 5. Y Yt+1 = * + b, t + 1 ; Yt+1 ; a b - ; - .
a b :
, Y ; n .
= = 16,00149333
:
Y = * 11 + 16,00149333= 6,962266667
Y = = 6,140518788
Y = = 5,318770909
:
ε = 79,72246921/10 = 7,97% < 10% - .