0,210604 | |
-0,487516 | |
0,159098 | |
0,977109 | |
0,149058 | |
-0,684806 | |
0,042431 | |
0,975826 |
(. . 2.1) (. . 2.2) . . .
1. : ; , . , . , .
2. . S. ( ) Si. , . , .
1. . :
1.1. ( 3 .2.3). .
1.2. , ( 4 .2.3).
2.3
t | yt | |||
1 | 30,6 | - | - | - |
2 | 22,44 | 31,11 | - | - |
3 | 25,5 | 32,64 | 31,875 | -6,375 |
4 | 45,9 | 33,15 | 32,895 | 13,005 |
5 | 36,72 | 34,425 | 33,7875 | 2,9325 |
6 | 24,48 | 35,7 | 35,0625 | -10,5825 |
7 | 30,6 | 36,72 | 36,21 | -5,61 |
8 | 37,74 | 37,23 | 13,77 | |
9 | 40,8 | 38,602 | 38,171 | 2,629 |
10 | 28,56 | 40,482 | 39,542 | -10,982 |
11 | 34,048 | 42,252 | 41,367 | -7,319 |
12 | 58,52 | 43,89 | 43,071 | 15,449 |
13 | 47,88 | 44,688 | 44,289 | 3,591 |
14 | 35,112 | 44,422 | 44,555 | -9,443 |
15 | 37,24 | - | - | |
16 | 57,456 | - | - |
2. ( 5 .2.3). S. ( ) Si. , . , .
|
|
2.4
- | - | -6,375 | 13,005 | |
2,9325 | -10,5825 | -5,61 | 13,77 | |
2,629 | -10,982 | -7,319 | 15,449 | |
3,591 | -9,443 | - | - | |
9,1525 | -31,0075 | -19,304 | 42,224 | |
3,050833333 | -10,33583333 | -6,434666667 | 14,07466667 | |
, Si | 2,962083333 | -10,42458333 | -6,523416667 | 13,98591667 |
:
: k = 0,355/4 = 0,08875. k:
;
S1 = 0,08875= 2,962083333;
S2 = - 0,08875= -10,42458333;
S3 = - 0,08875= -6,523416667;
S4 = 0,08875= 13,98591667.
. :
.
2.5 ( 3).
3. , . + = Y S (. . 2.5, 4). .
2.5
t | Yt | Si | T+E= Yt-Si | T | T + S | E= Yt-(T+S) | E2 |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
1 | 30,6 | 2,962083333 | 27,63791667 | 29,6013 | 32,56338333 | -1,963383333 | 3,854874114 |
2 | 22,44 | -10,42458333 | 32,86458333 | 30,7116 | 20,28701667 | 2,152983333 | 4,635337234 |
3 | 25,5 | -6,523416667 | 32,02341667 | 31,8219 | 25,29848333 | 0,201516667 | 0,040608967 |
4 | 45,9 | 13,98591667 | 31,91408333 | 32,9322 | 46,91811667 | -1,018116667 | 1,036561547 |
5 | 36,72 | 2,962083333 | 33,75791667 | 34,0425 | 37,00458333 | -0,284583333 | 0,080987674 |
6 | 24,48 | -10,42458333 | 34,90458333 | 35,1528 | 24,72821667 | -0,248216667 | 0,061611514 |
7 | 30,6 | -6,523416667 | 37,12341667 | 36,2631 | 29,73968333 | 0,860316667 | 0,740144767 |
8 | 13,98591667 | 37,01408333 | 37,3734 | 51,35931667 | -0,359316667 | 0,129108467 | |
9 | 40,8 | 2,962083333 | 37,83791667 | 38,4837 | 41,44578333 | -0,645783333 | 0,417036114 |
10 | 28,56 | -10,42458333 | 38,98458333 | 39,594 | 29,16941667 | -0,609416667 | 0,371388674 |
11 | 34,048 | -6,523416667 | 40,57141667 | 40,7043 | 34,18088333 | -0,132883333 | 0,01765798 |
12 | 58,52 | 13,98591667 | 44,53408333 | 41,8146 | 55,80051667 | 2,719483333 | 7,3955896 |
13 | 47,88 | 2,962083333 | 44,91791667 | 42,9249 | 45,88698333 | 1,993016667 | 3,972115434 |
14 | 35,112 | -10,42458333 | 45,53658333 | 44,0352 | 33,61061667 | 1,501383333 | 2,254151914 |
15 | 37,24 | -6,523416667 | 43,76341667 | 45,1455 | 38,62208333 | -1,382083333 | 1,91015434 |
16 | 57,456 | 13,98591667 | 43,47008333 | 46,2558 | 60,24171667 | -2,785716667 | 7,760217347 |
34,678 |
4. T . ( + ) . :
|
|
= 1,1103x + 28,491.
t =1,...,16, (. . 2.5, 5).
5. , . .
6. =Y(T+S). 7 2.5. . 34,678. (y-ycp)2, 1942,351388, 1%:
(1 34,678/1942,351388) ∙ 100= 98,2.
, 98,2% 16 .
Y | Y c | Y-Y | (Y-Y )² |
30,6 | 37,9285 | -7,3285 | 53,70691225 |
22,44 | 37,9285 | -15,4885 | 239,8936323 |
25,5 | 37,9285 | -12,4285 | 154,4676123 |
45,9 | 37,9285 | 7,9715 | 63,54481225 |
36,72 | 37,9285 | -1,2085 | 1,46047225 |
24,48 | 37,9285 | -13,4485 | 180,8621523 |
30,6 | 37,9285 | -7,3285 | 53,70691225 |
37,9285 | 13,0715 | 170,8641123 | |
40,8 | 37,9285 | 2,8715 | 8,24551225 |
28,56 | 37,9285 | -9,3685 | 87,76879225 |
34,048 | 37,9285 | -3,8805 | 15,05828025 |
58,52 | 37,9285 | 20,5915 | 424,0098723 |
47,88 | 37,9285 | 9,9515 | 99,03235225 |
35,112 | 37,9285 | -2,8165 | 7,93267225 |
37,24 | 37,9285 | -0,6885 | 0,47403225 |
57,456 | 37,9285 | 19,5275 | 381,3232563 |
1942,351388 |