..
2001
..
2001
629.7.017.1 192
: / . , 2001 . 40 .
:
, .
, 13.03, , . .
-
.. .
: ..
1. ۅ...4
2. ..4
3. .9
4. ..23
ۅ..25
߅..26
1.
, (). .
2.
( ) (ti), (N), (n) .
:
1. .
2. .
3. .
4. .
5. .
6. .
7. .
. , , () Dt. k :
|
|
(1)
. Dti f*(t), l*(t) P*(t) :
(2)
()=Ni - , (.. i- );
Dni - , Dti.
- Dti , 2Dt. , , .
. , . , ( 1) , , , .
. - . . , . , - . , . , , (, , ).
. , , . , , . , , , .
- . , . . . . , , , , .
. , . . , , . .
|
|
, , , .
, , , .
. , .
[NUN], .. , . 2. . :
(3)
t0= f1(m) t0= f2(m) m. t0 m ( 1).
[NUr] [NUT] . l [NUT] :
(4)
- .
- . , . :
(5)
mt- ;
st- ;
F*, F - .
t1 t2 . F*(ti) = 1-P*(ti), F(mt, st, ti) = F[(ti-mt)/st], F - ( 2 2), (5) :
(6)
zi - (zi) , F*(ti).
(6) :
(7)
- :
(8)
- ml sl - .
:
(9)
[NUr] [NUT] , , :
(10)
. U, , . :
(11)
qi(Dti)- Dti, N c2 , .. U2=c2.
qi(Dti) :
(12)
ti-1, ti - , Dti.
(13)
c2 r, k , qi*. ( - k [NUN] , a [NUT] [NUr] , (tn) +¥:
(14)
s - .
c2 ( 3 2). c2 r , , c2, .
|
|
, a, , . - 1, 5, 10%. a, P=1-a r, c2. U2, (11), (c2; +¥), , , a. , .
. , m m*. . Ib, b ( b>90%) , .. b .
m m* , , , . ( ) . , , c2. , .
,
m - , D*- , N-1 .
m:
2.
c . f(t), l(t) P(t) , .
. . , g- tg g, , 1000, 1000 .
3.
1. - -8-2.
: a=1000 ;
N=383;
n=16;
ti: 50, 70, 150, 220, 250, 400, 480, 500, 590, 640, 660, 790, 880, 910, 940, 980 .
. 0...1000 :
k = 1 +3,3*lg16=4,97
5 c Dti=200 .
. (2) fi*(t), li*(t) Pi*(t). ( 1).
, Ni - N, , , i. , N4=383-3-2-4=374.
|
|
1.
. | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | fi*=Dni/NDti, 1/ | li*=Dni/NiDti, 1/ | Pi*=fi*(t)/li*(t) |
3.915*10-5 | 3.915*10-5 | 1.0 | |||||
2.61*10-5 | 2.63*10-5 | 0.9922 | |||||
5.22*10-5 | 5.28*10-5 | 0.9886 | |||||
3.915*10-5 | 4.02*10-5 | 0.9739 | |||||
5.22*10-5 | 5.40*10-5 | 0.9667 |
. 1 ( 2).
) )
)
2.
) ; ) ;
)
- , , . , , - . .
. , .. - l. [NUT], , l (4)
, =1/l=1/4,088*10-5=24460 .
. , (11). k, a +¥. 2
2. -
. | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | qi(Dti) | N*qi(Dti) | Dni -N*qi(Dti) | Ui2 | ||
0.0081462 | 3.12 | -0.12 | 0.00463 | |||||||
0.0080809 | 3.095 | -1.095 | 0.38725 | |||||||
0.0080156 | 3.07 | 0.93 | 0.28205 | |||||||
0.0079503 | 3.045 | -0.045 | 0.00065 | |||||||
0.0078851 | 3.02 | 0.98 | 0.31822 | |||||||
¥ | 0.959925 | 367.65 | -0.65 | 0.000115 | ||||||
U2=SUi2= 0.99397 | ||||||||||
qi(Dti) (12). , :
r , (14), 4 (r=6-1-1). a=10%, 3 2 P=1-a=90% r=4 c2=7,78. U2=0,99397 (7,78; +¥), , .
. l , 2.
[1/]
[1/]
b=90% n=16 .. c2, , 2*n=2*16=32 2*n+2=2*16+2=34 ( 3 2):
c20,05;32=20,1; c20,95;34=46,2.
, :
[1/]
[1/]
, (2,59*10-5; 5,85*10-5) 90% l.
. 0<t<20000 ( 3). 3.
3 -
t, | ||||||||||
l(t)*10-5 1/ | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 | 4,09 |
f(t)*10-5 1/ | 3,77 | 3,47 | 3,20 | 2,95 | 2,72 | 2,50 | 2,31 | 2,13 | 1,96 | 1,80 |
P(t) | 0,8895 | 0,7913 | 0,7040 | 0,6263 | 0,5571 | 0,4956 | 0,4409 | 0,3922 | 0,3489 | 0,3104 |
P(t) | 0,9215 | 0,8491 | 0,7824 | 0,7209 | 0,6643 | 0,6121 | 0,5641 | 0,5198 | 0,4789 | 0,4413 |
P(t) | 0,9495 | 0,9016 | 0,8560 | 0,8129 | 0,7718 | 0,7328 | 0,6959 | 0,6608 | 0,6274 | 0,5957 |
|
|
( 1 2):
3. .
2. -8-2.
: a=1000 ;
N=352;
n=18;
ti: 60, 110, 110, 110, 130, 170, 200, 230, 260, 280, 280, 370, 510, 570, 780, 790, 920, 1000 .
. 0...1000 :
k = 1 +3,3lg18=5,14.
5 Dti=200 .
. (2) fi*(t), li*(t) Pi*(t). ( 4).
T 4 -
. | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | fi*=Dni/NDti 1/ | li*=Dni/NiDti 1/ | Pi*=fi*(t)/li*(t) |
9,95*10-5 | 9,95*10-5 | 1.0 | |||||
7,10*10-5 | 7,25*10-5 | 0,9801 | |||||
2,84*10-5 | 2,94*10-5 | 0,9659 | |||||
2,84*10-5 | 2,96*10-5 | 0,9602 | |||||
2,84*10-5 | 2,98*10-5 | 0,9545 |
. 4 1.
. , , . .
. , .. - m t0=1/l.
[NUT] (10) m:
m=0.5 f1(m)=604.90 f2(m)=545.45
m=0.7 f1(m)=2396.36 f2(m)=2338.33
m=0.9 f1(m)=9505.34 f2(m)=9719.49
m=0.8 f1(m)=4772.02 f2(m)=4779.34
f1(m) f2(m) , m=0,79. (10) m=0,793. t0=4560, l=0,000219.
:
,
(1/m + 1) - ( 16 2).
. , (11). k, Ta +¥. 5.
qi(Dti) :
5 -
N . | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | qi(Dti) | N*qi(Dti) | Dni -N*qi(Dti) | Ui2 | |
0.01454 | 5.118 | 1,882 | 0.69187 | ||||||
0.010519 | 3.703 | 1,297 | 0.45455 | ||||||
0.009338 | 3.287 | -1,287 | 0.50399 | ||||||
0.008622 | 3.035 | -1,035 | 0.35299 | ||||||
0.008111 | 2.855 | -0,855 | 0.25614 | ||||||
0.948869 | 334.0017 | -0.0017 | 8,99*10-9 | ||||||
U2=SUi2= 2,25956 | |||||||||
, :
q3(Dt3)=0.974941 - 0.965602 = 0.009338
r , (14), 3 (r=6-2-1). a=10%, 3 P=1-a=90% r=3 c2=6,25. U2=2,25956 (6,25; +¥), , .
. l=1/t0 m , :
;
;
D(m) D(l) 2.
:
n/l2=3,75*108; n/m2=28,594;
Stimlnti=11760,05; Stimlnti2=73047,74;
am = 239,33; lna=6,908; ln2a=47,717.
n/l2+l*[ Stimlnti2+(N-n)*am ln2a] =
= 28,594+0,000219*(73047,74+(352-16)239,33*47,717)=884.9288
b=90% zb=1,645.
, (-0,00027; 0,0007) 90% l, (0,474; 1,112) - m.
. 0<t<20000 1. , l , P(t) 1. l=0 P(t)=1. P(t) l m.
6.
6 -
t, | ||||||||||
l(t)*10-5 1/ | 3,61 | 3,12 | 2,87 | 2,71 | 2,58 | 2,48 | 2,41 | 2,34 | 2,28 | 2,24 |
f(t)*10-5 1/ | 3,29 | 2,67 | 2,31 | 2,06 | 1,87 | 1,71 | 1,58 | 1,46 | 1,36 | 1,27 |
P(t) | 0.378 | 0.0008 | 1,47*10-5 | 2*10-7 | 3*10-9 | 3,6*10-11 | 4*10-13 | 4*10-15 | 4*10-17 | 4*10-19 |
P(t) | 0,9132 | 0,8544 | 0,8049 | 0,7613 | 0,7222 | 0,6865 | 0,6538 | 0,6235 | 0,5953 | 0,5690 |
P(t) | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,0 |
3. ,
: a=6000 ;
N=174;
n=31;
ti: 360,920,987,1002,1380,1690,1850,1920,2780,3025,3272,3670,3810,3880,7117,4190,4210,4380,4420,4500,4730,4800,4850,5050,5190,5310,5360,5590,5870,5910,5920 .
. 0...6000 :
k = 1 +3,3lg31=5,92.
6 Dti=1000 .
2000 3000 , 2000 4000 . 5.
. (2) fi*(t), li*(t) Pi*(t). 7.
. 7 .
, , . .
. , .. - mt st.
7 -
. | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | fi*=Dni/NDti, 1/ | li*=Dni/NiDti, 1/ | Pi*=fi*(t)/li*(t) |
1,724*10-5 | 1,724*10-5 | 1,0 | |||||
2,874*10-5 | 2,924*10-5 | 0,9829 | |||||
1,724*10-5 | 1,807*10-5 | 0,9541 | |||||
5,172*10-5 | 5,625*10-5 | 0,9195 | |||||
4,598*10-5 | 5,298*10-5 | 0,8679 |
[NUT] (5) (6).
t1=2000 t2=5000 .
F*(ti)=1-P*(ti) :
F*(t1)=1 - 0,9541=0,0459; F*(t2)=1 - 0,8679=0,1321.
( 2 ) Z, F*(ti):
z1=-1,68; z2=-1,115.
.
.
. , (11).
8 -
N . | ti-1, | ti, | Dti, | Dni | qi(Dti) | N*q(Dti) | Dni-N*qi(Dti) | Ui2 | |
0.0301 | 5,24 | -2,24 | 0,95756 | ||||||
0.0158 | 2,75 | 2,25 | 1,84091 | ||||||
0.0509 | 8,86 | -2,86 | 0,92321 | ||||||
0.0353 | 6,14 | 2,86 | 1,33218 | ||||||
0.0454 | 7,90 | 0,10 | 0,00127 | ||||||
¥ | 0.8225 | 143,115 | -0.115 | 0,00009 | |||||
U2=SUi2=5,05522 | |||||||||
k, Ta +¥. 8.
qi(Dti) :
,
() ( 2 2).
, :
r , (14), 3 (r=6-2-1). a=10%, 3 P=1-a=90% r=3 c2=6,25. U2=5,05522 (6,25; +¥), , .
. mt st , 2:
Zb - ( 4 2); b=90% Zb=1,645;
k=(mt - a)/st; f2(k) f3(k) 15 2 k.
, (3913,6; 6512,2) 90% st, (9105,4;12529,6) - mt.
. 0<t<12000 1. P(t) s m; P(t) s m:
9.
9 -
t, | ||||||
l(t)*10-5, 1/ | 1,92 | 3,61 | 6,09 | 9,37 | 13,46 | 18,22 |
f(t)*10-5, 1/ | 1,83 | 3,26 | 4,99 | 6,61 | 7,56 | 8,45 |
P(t) | 0,8621 | 0,7823 | 0,6844 | 0,5675 | 0,4443 | 0,3300 |
P(t) | 0,9545 | 0,904 | 0,8186 | 0,7054 | 0,5616 | 0,409 |
P(t) | 0,9643 | 0,9049 | 0,8413 | 0,758 | 0,6517 | 0,5319 |
g- g=99,99% P(t):
, 0,0001, 2 2:
, m /s =1,5 -. tg :
z=-1,399, tg=6521,2*(-1,399)+9105,4=17,7 .
4. 3 - .
. ml sl.
[NUT] (5) (6).
t1=1500 t2=5500 . F*(ti)=1-P*(ti) :
( 2 ) z, F*(ti):
. c2, (11). k, ta +¥. 10.
10 -
. | lnti-1 | lnti | Dti | Dni | qi(t) | N*qi(t) | Dni-N*qi(t) | Ui2 |
8,9077 | 0,0082 | 1,43 | 1,57 | 1,73485 | ||||
6,9077 | 7,6009 | 0,0219 | 3,81 | 1,19 | 0,37125 | |||
7,6009 | 8,2941 | 0,0584 | 10,16 | -4,16 | 1,70435 | |||
8,2941 | 8,5172 | 0,0285 | 4,96 | 4,04 | 3,29294 | |||
8,5172 | 8,6995 | 0,0299 | 5,20 | 2,80 | 1,50414 | |||
8,6995 | 0,8531 | 148,439 | -5,439 | 0,19932 | ||||
U2=SUi2= 8,80662 |
qi(Dti) :
,
a=10%, r=3 c2=6,25. U2=8,80622 (6,25; + ). a=2,5%, c2=9,35 U2=8,80622 (9,35; + ). , - , , , .
. ml sl , 2:
Zb - ( 4 2); b=90% Zb=1,645;
15 2 k.
f2(k)=9,648 f3(k)=4,962.
, (0,95;1,68) 90% sl, (9,57; 10,59) - ml.
. 3.
4.
. - , 1000.
- (t g) , g, .
, , , , , , 10-7, 10-6, 10-4 .
Q(t=1)=10-4, P(t=1)=0,9999 , , g=99,99%. t99,99 1 .
- t99,99 1.
:
, :
0,9999=e-0,0000585 * tg.
.
, - - .
2. P(tg)=exp(-tgm/t0).
, . .
3 t99,99=17,7 .
4. -
.
.
, 0,0001 2 :
,
.
t99,99=28,61 .
1000 , 1000 . : 1000=1000/, , .
1000 , . 0,2. .
1 1000=1000/24460=0,041, 2 - 1000=1000/468796=0,021, 3 1000=1000/10817,4=0,092, 4 1000=1000/57022=0,017. 1000, , 2 , 1000 ( ) , - . , .
1. .. / , ,1981 . 207 .
2. .. / , ,1976 . 248 .
3. .. . . / , , 1992 . 38 .
1
2
1
0 t=0, x>a | 0 t>a 1 t=0 | ||
l | l-lt | ||
|
|
|
|
: 2016-10-07; !; : 993 |
:
80% - .
==> ...