1.2 (. 2.1).
2.1
50
, .. | () | % | |
320-736 | |||
736-1152 | |||
1152-1568 | |||
1568-1984 | |||
1984-2400 | |||
, , , . , (. . 2.1)
. 2.1
50
, , (. . 2.2)
.2.2
50
, , ( 2.2)
2.2
, .. | , x | , fi | x∙fi |
320-736 | |||
736-1152 | |||
1152-1568 | |||
1568-1984 | |||
1984-2400 | |||
, 919,04 ..
.
736 1152 .., .. . :
xMo , Δ ; fMo, fMo-1 fMo+1 , , , , .
:
, 775,62 ..
, .. (25) . :
, Δ , Σf-1 , fM . :
, 830,55 .., .
2.3.
|
|
2.3
, .. | , fi | , i | xi fi | xi - | (xi - )2 | (xi - )2fi |
320-736 | -391,04 | |||||
736-1152 | 24,96 | |||||
1152-1568 | 440,96 | |||||
1568-1984 | 856,96 | |||||
1984-2400 | 1272,96 | |||||
___ | ____ | ____ |
, :
, 50,7%, , .
. 1.3 (. 2.4)
2.4
50
, .. | () | % | |
12 16,33 | |||
16,33 20,66 | |||
20,66 24,99 | |||
24,99 29,32 | |||
29,32 33,65 | |||
33,65 38 | |||
. , (. .2.3). (. .2.4).
. 2.3
50
. 2.4
50
( 2.5).
2.5
, .. | , x | , fi | x∙fi |
12-16,33 | 14,17 | 198,33 | |
16,33-20,66 | 18,5 | 55,50 | |
20,66-24,99 | 22,83 | 182,67 | |
24,99-29,32 | 27,16 | 380,33 | |
29,32-33,65 | 31,49 | 126,00 | |
33,65-38 | 35,83 | 250,83 | |
1193,67 |
, 23,87 ..
.
12 16,33 .. 24,99 29,32 .. , :
, :
, 14,42 .. 26,61 ..
24,99 29,32 .., .. . :
, 24,99 .., .
|
|
2.6.
2.6
, .. | , fi | , i | xi fi | xi - | (xi - )2 | (xi - )2fi |
12-16,33 | 14,17 | 198,33 | -9,71 | 94,22 | 1319,07 | |
16,33-20,66 | 18,5 | 55,50 | -5,37 | 28,87 | 86,62 | |
20,66-24,99 | 22,83 | 182,67 | -1,04 | 1,08 | 8,65 | |
24,99-29,32 | 27,16 | 380,33 | 3,29 | 10,85 | 151,84 | |
29,32-33,65 | 31,49 | 126,00 | 7,63 | 58,17 | 232,66 | |
33,65-38 | 35,82 | 250,83 | 11,96 | 143,04 | 1001,29 | |
_____ | 1193,67 | ____ | ____ | 2800,14 |
, :
, 31,3%, , .
, 10%- . n=50 , N=500 . , 2, . , 95,4% .
,
- , 2:
Δ=tμ, t , , . 0,954 t=2,
Δ=2∙62,56=125,12 (..)
:
Δ ≤ + Δ;
919,04125,12 ≤ 919,04+125,12;
793,92 ≤ 1044,16.
, , 50%. Δ = 0,5Δ = 62,56 .., , :
:
, 0,954 793,92 1044,16 .. 50%, 154 .
, 10%- . - n=50 N=500.
, . 24,99 29,32 .., 11 , 22%, w=0,22.
. .
0,954, t=2, Δ=2∙0,06=0,12.
, , :
w Δ ≤ p ≤ w + Δ;
0,22 0,12 ≤ ≤ 0,22 + 0,12;
0,1 ≤ ≤ 0,34.
, , 20%. Δ = 0,8Δ = 0,094,
|
|
:
, 0,954 0,1 0,34. 20%, 78 .
4.1 , 2008 . ( ) 2009 . ( ). p0 1 , q0 q1 .
4.1
2008 2009 .
2008 . | 2009 . | |||||||
qo | p0 | p0q0 | p1q0 | q1 | p1 | p1q1 | p0q1 | |
___ | ____ | ___ | ___ |
, .
:
:
:
, , :
4.2.
4.2
,
0,4 | 1,0857 | |||
1,2 | 0,75 | 1,5 | 1,1053 | |
0,48 | 1,5 | 1,2 |
, 2009 . 20%, 50% 3 , 52%. 8,57%, 2 , 60%. 10,53%, 20%, 50% 25%.
, :
, 3800 , 1800 2000 .
, () :
, 20%. 8,57%, 10,53%.
5.1 1999 2009 .
5.1
, .. | |
|
|
:
: Δ = n yn-1, Δ = yn y0;
: ;
: = 1;
: = ∙ 100%, = ∙ 100%,
n , yn-1 , y0 () .
5.2.
5.2
, .. | |||||||||||
____ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ______ | ||
1,0327 | 1,0327 | 0,0327 | 0,0327 | 103,27 | 103,27 | 3,27 | 3,27 | ||||
1,0800 | 1,1153 | 0,0800 | 0,1153 | 108,00 | 111,53 | 8,00 | 11,53 | ||||
1,0448 | 1,1652 | 0,0448 | 0,1652 | 104,48 | 116,52 | 4,48 | 16,52 | ||||
1,1049 | 1,2874 | 0,1049 | 0,2874 | 110,49 | 128,74 | 10,49 | 28,74 | ||||
1,0695 | 1,3769 | 0,0695 | 0,3769 | 106,95 | 137,69 | 6,95 | 37,69 | ||||
1,0125 | 1,3941 | 0,0125 | 0,3941 | 101,25 | 139,41 | 1,25 | 39,41 | ||||
1,1123 | 1,5508 | 0,1123 | 0,5508 | 111,23 | 155,08 | 11,23 | 55,08 | ||||
1,0511 | 1,6299 | 0,0511 | 0,6299 | 105,11 | 162,99 | 5,11 | 62,99 | ||||
1,3105 | 2,1360 | 0,3105 | 1,1360 | 131,05 | 213,60 | 31,05 | 113,60 | ||||
1,1749 | 2,5095 | 0,1749 | 1,5095 | 117,49 | 250,95 | 17,49 | 150,95 |
, . 2008 ., 294 .. . (31,05%). 2005 . ( 10 .., 1,25%).
.
, (n ):
. :
n , .. , .
. , :
n , ( ).
, :
= ∙ 100% = 109,64%; = 1 = 0,0964; = ∙ 100% =9,64%.
, 855,55 .. 87,7 .. 9,64%.
. :
..
, , t , 5, 4, , 4, 5 ( t=0 t ). 0 1 5.3, .
5.3
, .. | ||||||
y | ___ | t | t2 | yt | ||
___ | 5 | 2905 | 475,73 | |||
609,7 | 4 | 2400 | 551,69 | |||
641,7 | 3 | 1944 | 627,65 | |||
691,0 | 2 | 1354 | 703,62 | |||
741,7 | 1 | 748 | 779,58 | |||
786,0 | 855,55 | |||||
837,0 | 931,51 | |||||
886,0 | 1007,47 | |||||
1029,7 | 1083,44 | |||||
1215,3 | 1159,40 | |||||
___ | 1235,36 | |||||
___ |
|
|
, 855,55 .. 75,96 .. .
5.1.
. 5.1
50 , 1.1, 1-3. .
, .
. , (. 6.1).
. 6.1
, , : , . , , , . , , .
, 1 (. . 1.4). , , , .
:
-, 2;
;
,
, , , .
(. . 1.4) 2:
= [(23,25 23,87)2 ∙ 20 + (23,59 23,87)2 ∙ 22 + (23,67 23,87)2 ∙ 3 +
+ (24 23,87)2 ∙ 1 + (31 23,87)2 ∙ 4] / 50 = 4,257.
, .
- ( ), - ( ), . 6.1.
6.1
/ | 2 | 2 | ||||
22,204 | ||||||
23,176 | ||||||
23,889 | ||||||
22,723 | ||||||
24,635 | ||||||
22,787 | ||||||
22,820 | ||||||
22,852 | ||||||
22,528 | ||||||
22,496 | ||||||
23,711 | ||||||
25,218 | ||||||
24,375 | ||||||
23,889 | ||||||
23,598 | ||||||
24,213 | ||||||
27,649 | ||||||
23,241 | ||||||
23,517 | ||||||
22,982 | ||||||
23,565 | ||||||
24,181 | ||||||
22,771 | ||||||
22,447 | ||||||
24,343 | ||||||
23,970 | ||||||
28,945 | ||||||
24,991 | ||||||
22,755 | ||||||
23,137 | ||||||
24,278 | ||||||
22,415 | ||||||
24,505 | ||||||
23,338 | ||||||
23,938 | ||||||
24,311 | ||||||
28,313 | ||||||
25,947 | ||||||
27,513 | ||||||
23,727 | ||||||
24,246 | ||||||
22,382 | ||||||
23,241 | ||||||
23,750 | ||||||
24,239 | ||||||
24,489 | ||||||
23,718 | ||||||
23,082 | ||||||
23,880 | ||||||
28,077 | ||||||
892,66 | 24,06 | 1030707,18 | 22235,38 | 637,34 | 24,06 |
a b :
, , , .
:
= 0,205.
, , , .