- , , - , ( ). , , , , . , X.
- t, a - t+ 1 ( - ). , t , t +1 . . - , r - . . , . r.
, , ' r , ' . . , , . . :
( 1 )
α β - ( ), ε - , : MF( ε ) = 0, MF( ε ) - ε F. , ε . : M (ε) = M (MF (ε)) = 0.
, F , ε . ij, , :
cov(F, ε ) = M(F ε )-M(F)M( ε ) = M(F ε ) = M(MF(F ε )) = M(FMF( ε )) = 0.
α β r F: cov(r,F)= β cov(F,F)+cov( ε ,F), cov(r,F) = β cov(F,F).
. (1) , : M (r) = α + β M (F) + M (ε).
M (ε) = 0, .
β F. α . F , (1) : rt = α + β Ft + ε t. t =1,..., n - - ; F 1,..., Fn - ; rt - r; α β - . :
г F. .
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F rM. . , :
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S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's) - 500 ;
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, . , ( ). ε , .
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β. r = rf, , . , , .