, / .
, S&P500, ( 3.9).
3.9 S&P500 1996 2000 : .
700.00 1,500.00; . , 700.00 800.00 , 1,400.00 1,500.00. : .
, . 1 2 , 3 38,2%, . 7: 38,2%.
: 38,2% 1.000 382 , . , , ( ).
, 5 6 3,9 3,4 . 38,2% 1,5 1,3 .
3.9 S&P500. : FAM Research, 2000.
6 7 1,5 , , 38,2%. , , 1,1 . , - , 0,2 .
, .
, , () ().
, . , , , , .
|
|
, , .
: .
.
.
S&P500 DAX30 ( / ; ( ) / ).
. , . , ( ) .
- , , , , , . , , . , , .
- . 80 ( 1,400.00 1,480.00) S&P500. 180 ( 110.00 111.80).
, , , , . , , .
, , , (61,8%, ). , .
. , , ( 3.10).
3.1 , , . .
S&P500 .
S&P500 80 (, 1,400.00 1,480.00). 61,8% , .
|
|
, ,
3.10 , . : FAMResearch, 2000.
S&P500. , , .
61,8%, .
, , , , 0,618- . , , . - .
, . , , , , .
, , , , 11 S&P500 ( 2000 ). , O-H-L-C , Bridge/CRB Data Services.
. . , . , .
CD-ROM , , .
S&P500 2000 , , , , , -.
3.11 3.2 S&P500. ( . .)
, ( 3.12).
:
1,80 JPY (, 110.00 111.80); , , 61,8%;
; ;
, 0,618- ; ;
- .
3.11 S&P500 2000 . . : FAM Research, 2000.
3.2 S&P500 2000
3.12 2000. . : FAMResearch, 2000.
, S&P500. , , , S&P500, .
|
|
. , . 9,00 . 11- . , / 3.3.
, , / , . , . . . , .
S&P500 . , , , - , . 11 . .
2000 . ; . , . .
3.3 2000
() (L) | / | ||||
L#2/H#3 | 105.90 | - | 104.65 | (1.25) | |
H#3/L#4 | 104.79 | - | 105.76 | (0.97) | |
L#4/H#5 | 104.94 | 107.71 | 2.77 | ||
L#8/H#9 | 109.04 | 109.05 | 0.01 | ||
H#9/L#10 | 109.05 | 107.91 | 1.14 | ||
H#11/L#12 | 107.67 | 105.63 | 2.04 | ||
L#6/H#17 | 105.63 | 108.55 | 2.92 | ||
H#19/L#20 | 108.91 | 106.15 | 2.76 | ||
H#23/L#24 | 108.25 | 108.82 | (0.57) |
: FAM Research, 2000.
.
|
|
, , .
S&P500 1.250 1999 1.600 2000 . 107.00 JPY 1.00 USD 1997 150.00 JPY 1.00 USD 1998 . 2000 110.00 JPY 1.00 USD.
. , , , S&P500 . 2000 , .
, , , . , , , .
, . , , , , . , , . , , -, ( ) .
( S&P500),
,
, ( 3.13).
3.13 S&P500 1999 2000 . . : FAM Research, 2000.
:
140 (, 1,400.00 1,540.00); 38,2%; ;
, 0,618- ; ; - .
S&P500, 3.13, , 3.4.
3.4 S&P500 1999 2000
() (L) | / | ||||
H#1/L#2 | 1,340.40 | 1,348.00 | (7.60) | ||
L#2a/H#3 | 1,449.80 | - | 1,357.00 | (92.80) | |
L#4/H#5 | 1,459.50 | 1,417.00 | (42.50) | ||
H#5/L#6 | 1,417.00 | 1,439.50 | (22.50) | ||
L#6/H#7 | 1,439.50 | - | 1,382.50 | (57.50) | |
H#7a/L#8 | 1,388.50 | 1,337.70 | 40.80 |
: FAM Research, 2000,
. , , . , . , , S&P500 .
S&P500. . :
10.00 JPY (, 110.00 120.00); 38,2%;
; , 0,618- ; ; - ( ) .
|
|
3.14 3.5.
, S&P500, . 2 , 38,2%. 79,78, 24 1995 . , . 109,25 1997 , , 2, 110,63. 2 3 ( ) . , 9 , 10.
. 38,2%, 50,0 61,8%, , . , , 61,8%, .
, .
, . , , , .
D. 3-
(extensions) , , , .
, , , , .
3.14 1996 2000 . : FAM Research, 2000.
3.5 1996 2000
() (L) | / | ||||
L#2/H#3 | 125.51 | 125.88 | 0.37 | ||
H#3/L#4 | 125.88 | - | 128.98 | () | |
L#4/H#3a | 132.13 | 137.48 | 5.35 | ||
L#4a/H#5 | 142.98 | 143.43 | 0.45 | ||
H#7/L#6a | 133.27 | 117.00 | 16.27 | ||
H#9/L#10 | 113.35 | - | 116.28 | (2.93) | |
L#10/H#9a | 119.39 | 118.18 | (1.21) | ||
H#11/L#12 | 110.12 | 106.69 | 3.43 | ||
L#12/H#13 | 106.69 | - | 104.65 | (2.04) |
: FAM Research, 2000.
, . , . , , .
. () , , .
: (1) DAX30 (2) . , , .
3- . 3- 1, , , .
3.15 () 3- (b) . : FAM Research, 2000. |
3.15 .
. , , , . , , .
3-- .
1. ( ) 3- .
2. , = 1,618.
3. .
3.16 .
3.16 3 3- . = 1,618. : FAM Research, 2000.
1 . . - . 1,618, . , WINPHI.
. : () , ; (b) () .
; , .
, , . = 1,618, . , , . : , , .
, , . , , . , . , , , .
, . , -, , , .