-
2
.. - 2 . : , 2015. 13 .
- 151000 .
2. | ||
2 | ||
, . , , , .
, , , .
. . , .
.
, .
, , .
. , .
2.
. .
:
- ;
- -;
- .
, , . : F(t), (t), l(t). . , l(t) :
|
|
- l(t) , ;
- l(t) , ;
- l(t) t, -
2.1
, , . , : 123, 218, 230, 210, 234, 217, 200, 157. .
1) ( ). ( ) N = 8 < 20 .
2)
t1 < t2 < t3 < t4 < < tn, (2.1)
ti - i , .
123 157 200 210 217 218 230 234
3) Pi(t), Fi(t), li(t). 2.1.
2.1 i- ti :
P(ti)= , (2.2)
i .
t1:
P(123)=
i- ti :
, F(ti)=1 - P(ti). (2.3)
t1:
F(123)=1 - P(123) = 1 - 0,917 = 0,083.
i- ti :
, (2.4)
ti+1 .
t1=123 :
=
2.1
ti, | ||||||||
Pi(t) | 0,917 | 0,798 | 0,680 | 0,560 | 0,440 | 0,320 | 0,202 | 0,083 |
F(t) | 0,083 | 0,202 | 0,320 | 0,440 | 0,560 | 0,680 | 0,798 | 0,917 |
li(t) | 0,0038 | 0,0035 | 0,0175 | 0,0310 | 0,2730 | 0,0310 | 0,1470 | - |
4) Pi(t), F(t) li(t) ( 2.1).
li(t) .
li(t) (. 2.1), , .
5)
. (2.5)
.
:
. (2.6)
.
. (2.7)
|
|
|
|
2.1 - Pi(t), Fi(t) li(t)
6)
F*(t) (. 2.1).
F(t) F*(t) (. 2.1):
|
|
Dmax=max |F*(t) - F(t)|. (2.8)
Dmax= max |F*(t) - F(t)|=0,17.
:
.
( ) l* (l*).
(l*) (³ 0,5), .
,
(l*) = (0,5) = 0,964 > 0,5.
(l*) > 0,5, . .
2
, , . :
, | |
118, 128, 155, 140, 120, 124, 141, 152, 116, 142, 143 | |
965, 975, 990, 970, 967, 978, 966, 988, 1100, 1000 | |
223, 218, 230, 210, 234, 217, 200, 257, 233, 202, 208, 218 | |
313, 328, 320, 321, 324, 327, 322, 317, 350, 340 | |
423, 418, 430, 410, 434, 417, 400, 402, 411, 440, 442 | |
120, 215, 227, 207, 231, 214, 197, 154, 155, 208, 230, 200 | |
163, 258, 270, 250, 274, 257, 240, 197, 255, 242, 190 | |
589, 541, 563, 576, 523, 542, 555, 544, 505, 535, 600, 599 | |
128, 129, 143, 119, 116, 118, 155, 149, 142, 133, 150, 190 | |
225, 216, 214, 217, 230, 223, 224, 220, 215, 235, 200, 209 | |
122, 217, 229, 209, 233, 216, 199, 156, 201, 211, 200 | |
812, 821, 826, 824, 823, 822, 820, 815, 831, 828 | |
121, 216, 228, 208, 232, 215, 198, 155, 223, 219, 200 | |
827, 865, 840, 820, 830, 845, 850, 870, 819, 822, 854 | |
827, 865, 841, 848, 850, 874, 888, 849, 856, 869 | |
133, 220, 244, 227, 210, 167, 145, 159, 207, 236 | |
711, 725, 729, 727, 728, 712, 726, 716, 715, 733, 722, 719 | |
121, 215, 239, 217, 238, 212, 203, 156, 144, 219, 222 | |
113, 258, 230, 270, 284, 227, 231, 197, 199, 251, 236, 222 | |
21, 16, 28, 20, 23, 25, 19, 27, 18, 24, 30, 24, 32, 17, 21 | |
133, 228, 240, 220, 244, 227, 210, 167, 200, 257, 233,202, 208 | |
112, 121, 126, 122, 123, 124, 120, 115, 129, 143, 119, 116, 118 | |
212, 221, 226, 222, 223, 224, 220, 215, 257, 240, 197, 255 | |
312, 321, 326, 322, 323, 324, 320, 315, 328, 317, 350, 340 | |
412, 421, 426, 422, 423, 424, 420, 415, 402, 411, 440, 442 | |
512, 521, 526, 522, 523, 524, 520, 515, 526, 542, 555, 544, 505 | |
612, 621, 626, 622, 623, 624, 620, 615, 629, 610, 613, 603, 634 | |
712, 721, 726, 722, 723, 724, 720, 715, 716, 715, 733, 725 | |
125, 220, 232, 212, 236, 219, 202, 159, 221, 226, 222, 233, 234 | |
126, 221, 233, 213, 237, 220, 203, 160, 274, 257, 240, 197 |
.
. .
2.
.