, , .
50 . , . . Journal of Finance (September 1968): pp. 589-609: Altman, Edward I., "Financial Ratios, Discriminates Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy".
66 33 33 . 22 . 95% .
. (multiple discriminate analysis). , :
, (2.3.1)
- ; - ; - ; = ( ) / ; - ; - - .
z = 2,675 50 %; z 1,81 2,99 ; z, .
:
, (2.3.2)
- ; - . w > 0, .
, ., .., ., ., .
:
2.3.1 ()
( .):
75,
63,
22,
164.
.
: ,
, .
ω = -0,3877 - 1,0736 75 / 22 + 0,579 63 / 164 = -3,83.
, .
2.3.2
( .):
69,
74,
50,
110.
.
2.3.3
:
1- | 9 | |||
1. | ||||
981,0 | 718,0 | 705,0 | 1 387,0 | |
20 092,0 | 23 549,0 | 23 219,0 | 22 040,0 | |
0,0 | 531,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
20 969,0 | 4 685,0 | 4 685,0 | 2 926,0 | |
16 284,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
1 | 42 042,0 | 29 483,0 | 28 609,0 | 26 353,0 |
2. | ||||
33 591,0 | 24 867,0 | 20 099,0 | 16 630,0 | |
: | ||||
, | 9 223,0 | 5 610,0 | 4 598,0 | 4 359,0 |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
1 985,0 | 2 046,0 | 1 943,0 | 1 978,0 | |
21 186,0 | 15 518,0 | 13 284,0 | 10 175,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
1 197,0 | 1 693,0 | 274,0 | 118,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
26 313,0 | 31 128,0 | 30 252,0 | 23 667,0 | |
( 12 ) | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
( 12 ) | 147 193,0 | 179 525,0 | 197 712,0 | 158 681,0 |
93 659,0 | 161 276,0 | 182 319,0 | 122 721,0 | |
33 478,0 | 32 351,0 | 2 151,0 | 2 272,0 | |
174,0 | 3 186,0 | 170,0 | 1 794,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
2 | 240 749,0 | 271 057,0 | 250 384,0 | 203 044,0 |
( 190+290) | 282 791,0 | 300 540,0 | 278 993,0 | 229 397,0 |
3. | ||||
3 066,0 | 3 066,0 | 3 066,0 | 3 066,0 | |
, | ||||
1 037,0 | 1 037,0 | 1 037,0 | 1 037,0 | |
1 238,0 | 1 238,0 | 1 238,0 | 1 238,0 | |
: | ||||
, | 1 238,0 | 1 238,0 | 1 238,0 | 1 238,0 |
, | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
( ) | 37 476,0 | 43 747,0 | 17 773,0 | 40 160,0 |
3 | 42 817,0 | 49 088,0 | 23 114,0 | 45 501,0 |
4. | ||||
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
4 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
5. | ||||
7 896,0 | 8 239,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
232 078,0 | 243 213,0 | 226 897,0 | 183 896,0 | |
: | ||||
158 062,0 | 185 683,0 | 181 335,0 | 140 901,0 | |
28 660,0 | 3 660,0 | 0,0 | 3 660,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
1 134,0 | 498,0 | 938,0 | 1 729,0 | |
1 731,0 | 401,0 | 1 901,0 | 445,0 | |
() | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
0,0 | 0,0 | 28 982,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
5 | 239 974,0 | 251 452,0 | 255 879,0 | 183 896,0 |
( 490+590+690) | 282 791,0 | 300 540,0 | 278 993,0 | 229 397,0 |
|
|
|
|
() , , , , : | 130 697,0 | 304 858,0 | 412 398,0 | 540 471,0 |
,, , , : | 120 154,0 | 273 660,0 | 367 149,0 | 476 123,0 |
10 543,0 | 31 198,0 | 45 249,0 | 64 348,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 2 931,0 | 4 325,0 | |
5 262,0 | 12 323,0 | 17 273,0 | 27 466,0 | |
(010-020-030-040) | 5 281,0 | 18 875,0 | 25 045,0 | 32 557,0 |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
11 460,0 | 54 750,0 | 92 449,0 | 134 247,0 | |
11 459,0 | 54 749,0 | 96 831,0 | 139 560,0 | |
10,0 | 10,0 | 0,0 | 609,0 | |
1 001,0 | 1 634,0 | 0,0 | 7 713,0 | |
4 291,0 | 17 252,0 | 20 663,0 | 20 140,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | |
440,0 | 3 242,0 | 2 890,0 | 7 435,0 | |
3 851,0 | 14 010,0 | 17 773,0 | 12 705,0 | |
, .
:
1. , . []/ .. .: , 2007. 752 .: 70100/16. 2000 . ISBN: 978-966-8644-94-8 (. .)
2. , .. [] / .. .: : , 2008. 272, [1] .: : 6090/16. 3000 . ISBN 978-5-91180-946-1
3. , .., , .. () []/ .., ... .: , 2006. 576 . 5000 . ISBN 5-85971-509-9
4. , . , . Mergers, Acquisitions, and Other Restructuring Activities. []/ .. .: - -, 2007. 960 .: 70*100/16. ISBN 978-5-9693-0068-2
5. , .., , .. . 7- ., . . []/ .., ... .: -, 2011. 467 .: 60*90/16. ISBN: 978-5-370-01965-4
6. , .. : .. []/ ... , - , 2006. 146 .: 60*90/16. 100 . ISBN 5-7253-1292-5
7. , .., , .., . . [ ]./ .., .., . .: - , 2011. ISBN 978-5-238-02017-4
8. , .., . : . []/ ... .: -, 2009. 640 . 10000 . ISBN: 978-5-94280-362-9
9. , .., , .. . 2- []/.., ... .: , 2009. 288 .: 6090/16. 3000 . ISBN: 978-5-9558-0039-4
|
|
10. , .. []/ ... .: -2000, 2009. 272 .: 6084/16. 2000 . ISBN: 978-5-902405-27-6
11. , .., .. (3- ). []/ , . .: , 2007. - 958 .: 70*100/16. ISBN 978-5-9614-0619-1
12. .. : . : []/ ... .: -: -, 2003. - 248 .: 60x88/16. 20000 . ISBN 5-238-00533-4