- - . (1949, 1957, 1982, 1993 .), (. ) - ().
:
;
, ;
;
, ;
, , .
. .
, , () .
. .
1. :
2. :
, .. :
- ; - ; - .
, .
:
; .
( ), 2004 :
. 5.2.1.
:
5.2.1.
,
- | |||||||||||
: | |||||||||||
(1), % | 47,85 | 43,22 | 42,43 | 40,55 | 39,53 | 42,76 | 43,82 | 44,2 | 45,35 | 46,3 | 46,63 |
(2), % | 94,82 | 90,52 | 90,33 | 88,16 | 86,78 | 87,4 | 90,20 | 91,11 | 91,31 | 91,8 | 91,66 |
(), % | 50,46 | 47,75 | 46,97 | 45,99 | 45,56 | 48,93 | 48,64 | 48,50 | 49,67 | 50,4 | 50,87 |
(), % | 5,173 | 9,472 | 9,664 | 11,83 | 13,22 | 12,6 | 9,793 | 8,881 | 8,690 | 8,13 | 8,337 |
( )
|
|
, 1995 2004 (7%), 1998 , , , .
. 5.2.1. , , .
5.2.1., 2004 2003 , , , . 2003 8,13%, 2004 8,337%. 2001 . 2003 1992 0,0*3%, 2004 - 0,406%.
2006. , , 73,9 ., 51% , .
. , . : yt = b+at, b :
ti - ;
yi - ;
- .
5.2.2.
ti | (yi), .. | tiI | ti yi | ||
∑ |
, ; = 5772,629 - 19,579t.
, , 2005- 2006 . .
|
|
2006 2008 . 24 36:
5772,629 - 19,579 * 24 = 5302,733 ..
5772,629 - 19,579 * 36 = 5067,785 ..
5.2.3.
ti | , .. | ||
5459,365 | |||
5439,786 | |||
5420,207 | |||
5400,628 | |||
5381,049 | |||
5361,47 | |||
5341,891 | |||
5322,312 | |||
5302,733 | |||
5283,154 | |||
5263,575 | |||
5243,996 | |||
5224,417 | |||
5204,838 | |||
5185,259 | |||
5165,68 | |||
5146,101 | |||
5126,522 | |||
5106,943 | |||
5087,364 | |||
5067,785 |
, 2008 , 2006 5302,733 , 2008 5067,785 .
, , :
= 0 + 6 6
- ;
6 - ;
0 6 - .
, .5.2.4.
5.2.4.
,
, . | , % | ||||
(2003) | 8,13 | 91,87 | |||
(2004) | 8,337 | 91,663 | |||
0,999955 | 1,0277 | 1,0022 | 1,0255 | 0,9977 |
:
0,9999550 * 0,9187 + 1,0277 * 0,0813 = 1,0022
, 100,22% (99,9955%) (102,77%).
, .
;
;
;
. 5.2.5.
5.2.5.
, 2005 - 2006 .
yi, .. | , % | , % | |||
## | ## | ## | |||
0,996052632 | 99,60526316 | -0,394736842 | |||
0,961030383 | 96,10303831 | -3,896961691 | |||
0,963917526 | 96,39175258 | -3,608247423 | |||
0,963636364 | 96,36363636 | -3,636363636 | |||
0,998890122 | 99,88901221 | -0,110987791 | |||
0,999444444 | 99,94444444 | -0,055555556 | |||
0,999629424 | 99,96294238 | -0,037057625 | |||
1,009082484 | 100,9082484 | 0,908248378 | |||
1,008633358 | 100,8633358 | 0,863335783 | |||
1,009470042 | 100,9470042 | 0,947004189 | |||
1,011185279 | 101,1185279 | 1,118527873 | |||
1,010704728 | 101,0704728 | 1,070472792 | |||
1,010944395 | 101,0944395 | 1,094439541 | |||
0,977998952 | 97,79989523 | -2,200104767 | |||
0,994155749 | 99,41557486 | -0,584425144 |
|
|
, , 2005 2006 100%, . 2006 3,29%, .
, .
2005 - 2006 0,994, 99,42%, -0,58%.
, 2006 .
=5601-0,9949=5313,19
5.2.6.
2006.
, .. | ||
5568,266348 | ||
5535,723999 | ||
5503,371836 | ||
5471,208747 | ||
5439,233628 | ||
5407,445379 | ||
5375,842908 | ||
5344,425131 | ||
5313,190966 |
5313,19 . , .. 287,8 , .
, , 10.457 . .